Skip to comments.Republicans are suddenly buoyant about fall election chances
Posted on 06/22/2006 2:39:58 PM PDT by Gothmog
The roller-coaster mood swings of Republican strategists are surging back with growing confidence that the fall elections won't be the disaster for the party that Democrats are predicting.
Buoyed by President Bush's two-week bump up in the polls, a congressional victory in California, and new polling that finds Republicans holding their own or challenging in races Democrats have focused on, some strategists are reviewing their earlier expectations of major losses in the House, Senate, and statehouses.
A recent surprise poll that has Republicans hopeful came in the Michigan gubernatorial race where Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm is now behind GOP challenger Dick DeVos.
Just three months ago Granholm held a 17 percent lead and last fall was up by 23 percent.
But a May EPIC-MRA poll put DeVos ahead 46 percent to 45 percent, and a newer poll has him leading by 8 percent, 48 to 40. "Looks like we may steal a big governorship from the Dems in Michigan!" a Bush adviser e-mailed.
"That would be sweet. Could also be important for '08 and the ability of our GOP nominee to win this state," he added. Democrats, however, are not looking at defeat there, and say that Granholm is just starting to take on DeVos.
Still, the Republicans are not depressed anymore and are "starting to rise to the battle," said a Republican National Committee insider, who explained that last week's trip by President Bush to Iraq and the clearing of Karl Rove in the CIA spy case have boosted GOP spirits.
Some GOP officials, however, warn against too-early celebration. "Things have finally gone our way for two weeks," said a Republican official, "but we don't want to overstate this." The official said GOP strategists are cautious because they fear the expectations for a comeback will rise too high and could be dashed with any unexpected bad news in the coming weeks.
Another said "we've simply gone from being in reverse to being in neutral." Said another, until three weeks ago "there had been an uneasiness in our circles. This gives people a feeling that things are changing, that's all."
Hillary should be helpful with her idea of a national speed limit of 55 mph.
color me shocked.....u mean the msm was wrong...geeeeee.
its gonna all come down to turn out..well we turn out...i will...im not happy with us but we are better then them not by much though
And the really good news is that (Lin)colon Chaffed RINO-RI would lose the Republican primary were it held today!
Howard Dean - The gift that just keeps on giving.
Which the dims spun as an actual "win" for them.
Actually I just posted this on another thread. From National Review:
"Next week is a big one for Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island: He must decide whether he's going to run for re-election as a Republican or as an independent. The deadline is 4 pm on Wednesday almost exactly a week from right now. If Chafee doesn't believe he can win the GOP primary against challenger Steven Laffey, he may decide to forgo the whole thing and create a three-way race between himself, Laffey, and presumptive Democratic nominee Sheldon Whitehouse. This would create an interesting dilemma for Elizabeth Dole and the NRSC, which has already pumped a lot of cash into Chafee's re-election: Would they still support a guy who doesn't want to compete for their own party's nod?Under Rhode Island law, Chafee wouldn't actually have to drop his formal Republican affiliation: He could still say that he's a member of the party, but that he's not seeking its nomination. This may not pass the smell test, but since when has Chafee ever been required by Washington's GOP establishment to pass the smell test?"
Credit conservative talk radio!
What a great Christmas present it would be for us Michiganders if we could not only get a new Governor but a new Senator as well. Debbie ("Dangerously Incompetent") Stabenow must go.
If anyone has any suggestions on how we can get the word to fellow Michiganders that we have become a doner state because Republicans are in charge in Washington and we are sending two Democrats to represent us, I would appreciate it.
Furthermore, there have been indicators that despite the GOP's best efforts to blow it, the democrats have bad ideas and are untrustworthy and it shows. The final indicator is that Dick Morris made a prediction of disaster for the, and he is almost always wrong nowadays (has not been the case in the past).
As if "Republicans" are stupid enough to believe the polls...
Why would they believe the enemy's prediction anyway?
I've been buoyant all along! ;-)
I just wish the President would start to open his mouth and respond to the insane attacks from the left. He could really do some good if he just SAID SOMETHING! Did anyone notice how his approval rating went up last year when he gave a few speeches defending his positions? Then he stopped. He'd better dust off the bully pulpit and try to help the GOP!
Republicans just need to remember that while our soldiers fight insurgents on the ground in Iraq we need to fight the enemy here at home. Just keep in mind how the Democrats would steal the face and honor of our soldiers as they have already by hyping situations like Abu Grab. The Dems have been setting themselves up for a loss by positioning themselves in a hopeless position of being not just antiwar but antiAmerican. All you have to talk to one of "them" and you know they have not just a low opinion of President Bush but of the whole country. They quickly point to the European examples of tollerance and social enlightenment. They have long stepped over the line from being vocal patriots to being hateful traitors. I belive when a US citizen can no longer offer the benefit of the doubt to his or her own soldiers before offerring sympathy and comfort to the enemy then they have lost the right to be called a citizen. We need not only worry about illegals but also about those who hate this country and strip them of their citizenship and send them to live with those they so admire abroad.
So things change quickly in politics? Who knew?!
I hope they have several more similar type of "wins" this November.
De Vos, the Michigan governor candidate, is running positive campaign commercials, ala Reagan in 1984. It's very effective. The MI rats don't know how to respond.
Me will vote. Me promise.
What this tells me is that economic issues still trump all others when it comes to elections in this country. Everything I've seen from Michigan Freepers indicates that the state's economy has really been in the sh!tter for a while.
The Amway effect. No stinkin' thinkin' in the DeVos camp!
The GOP will keep control of Congress...they might not even lose any seats. Once again, sleeping pills and rope will be made temporarily illegal in blue states in November...
1. "Culture of corruption" falls flat with investigation of Rep. Jefferson and revelations about Rep. Mollohan.
2. Killing of Zarqawi and lack of subsequent bombshell CIA leak to drown out the good news.
3. Rove freed to strategize = GOP moves to force Iraq resolutions to floor in both Houses, resulting in huge votes of confidence in the Administration's Iraq policy and Dems in disarray.
4. al-Qatie leaves Today Show.
5. Hillary gets her Sister Souljah moment but it points up to rest of America how nutty the Democrat base is.
6. John Kerry continues to haunt Dems and won't go away.
The Dems are living on Fantasy Island and Howard Dean is "Tattoo" crying "De plan, de plan, de plan..." waiting for their plan to land.
The '04 election was bad enough for the nutty left. Can you imagine the reaction if the GOP keeps control this year? A lot of these people will absolutely turn looney. Even more than they already are.
7. Blockbuster appointment of Paulson to Treasury throws acid on MSM meme that Administration is incompetent and Pres can't get competent people to work for him
8. Tony Snow takes "kick me" sign off to WH Press Corps, engineers PR coup with President's trip to Iraq
9. Iraq forms government, makes Dems look stupid for continuing to claim there is no progress
...and getting Tony Snow as Press Secretary.
"....If anyone has any suggestions on how we can get the word to fellow Michiganders that we have become a doner state because Republicans are in charge in Washington and we are sending two Democrats to represent us, I would appreciate it...."
What the heck is a "doner"? Could you possibly have meant "donor"?
Me will vote. Me promise.
Me are going to turnout to vote bigtime GOP all over my country.
Dick DeVos would be an excellent governor. He would probably the most pro-capitalism governor in the nation. I hope he gets a lot of support.
Important Notice to DU Lurkers:
In light of these devastating developments you have only one course of action open if you hope to produce a Liberal landslide in the fall elections:
Mobilize the powerful student masses and take your cause to the streets!
The evil Republicans don't want you to know about this devastating tactic which has proven so effective in past elections!
(And don't forget; Don't let the bad guys steal another election. Conservatives vote on Tuesday and Liberals vote on Wednesday. Do not accept any contradiction on this important point.)
If the GOP drops the immigration thing this year I think there will be a few losses in the House and maybe a net one seat loss in the Senate, but both chambers will remain Republican. I think the most important change has been the GOP base is starting to come home to Bush, because of some victories in Iraq like the Zarqawi offing as well as just simply out of fear of the extremism of the Democrats. There's nothing like a good debate over the Democrats' "retreat and defeat" policies on Iraq to focus the minds of conservatives over what's at stake in this election. Plus with gas prices coming down and the economy continuing to remain on good footing, I wouldn't bet against the GOP this fall at all.
Another "expert" actually figured things out! Wow!
We pick up a net 3, 4 or 5 in the House and a net 1 or 2 in the senate.
Republican "strategists" should know better than to put their faith in Dimm predictions.
Thank you Daily Kos!
Good point, but I still think the wild card in all this is going to be the illegal immigration issue. If the Republicans grow some balls and pass a bill that will make border security the primary issue (before any other "comprehensive" crap is considered), they will win in a big way. Without it, your prediction is right on target.
And if the challenger won over Chaffee in Rhode Island primary would he lose in the Fall election?
Isn't Rhode Island a pretty liberal state?
good for you ogg, take buddy with you.
The only disaster coming is for the Democrats.
Kerry should keep talking and conditioning his responses in the most complex way he can manage.
Why not? The Democrats always overstate everything!
I never, ever was worried, period!
In the long run, the House and the Senate will stay in GOP hands - no major changes. The Dems may make small gains but they won't make major gains.
Yup, but the problem is that Bush gets ALL the blame, not jenny.
My best friend has not been able to find a job, but would never vote for DeVos.
It reminds me of Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown.
This isn't 1994 in reverse. It's 1998.
A basically break-even year, with a fair amount of change, but that change netting out overall.