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Republicans are suddenly buoyant about fall election chances
US News & World Report ^ | 6/22/06 | Paul Bedard

Posted on 06/22/2006 2:39:58 PM PDT by Gothmog

The roller-coaster mood swings of Republican strategists are surging back with growing confidence that the fall elections won't be the disaster for the party that Democrats are predicting.

Buoyed by President Bush's two-week bump up in the polls, a congressional victory in California, and new polling that finds Republicans holding their own or challenging in races Democrats have focused on, some strategists are reviewing their earlier expectations of major losses in the House, Senate, and statehouses.

A recent surprise poll that has Republicans hopeful came in the Michigan gubernatorial race where Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm is now behind GOP challenger Dick DeVos.

Just three months ago Granholm held a 17 percent lead and last fall was up by 23 percent.

But a May EPIC-MRA poll put DeVos ahead 46 percent to 45 percent, and a newer poll has him leading by 8 percent, 48 to 40. "Looks like we may steal a big governorship from the Dems in Michigan!" a Bush adviser e-mailed.

"That would be sweet. Could also be important for '08 and the ability of our GOP nominee to win this state," he added. Democrats, however, are not looking at defeat there, and say that Granholm is just starting to take on DeVos.

Still, the Republicans are not depressed anymore and are "starting to rise to the battle," said a Republican National Committee insider, who explained that last week's trip by President Bush to Iraq and the clearing of Karl Rove in the CIA spy case have boosted GOP spirits.

Some GOP officials, however, warn against too-early celebration. "Things have finally gone our way for two weeks," said a Republican official, "but we don't want to overstate this." The official said GOP strategists are cautious because they fear the expectations for a comeback will rise too high and could be dashed with any unexpected bad news in the coming weeks.

Another said "we've simply gone from being in reverse to being in neutral." Said another, until three weeks ago "there had been an uneasiness in our circles. This gives people a feeling that things are changing, that's all."


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; electioncongress; electionushouse; electionussenate; gop; midterms; predictions
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Some good news
1 posted on 06/22/2006 2:40:03 PM PDT by Gothmog
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To: Gothmog

Hillary should be helpful with her idea of a national speed limit of 55 mph.


2 posted on 06/22/2006 2:42:13 PM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: Gothmog

color me shocked.....u mean the msm was wrong...geeeeee.

its gonna all come down to turn out..well we turn out...i will...im not happy with us but we are better then them not by much though


3 posted on 06/22/2006 2:42:25 PM PDT by skaterboy
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To: Gothmog

And the really good news is that (Lin)colon Chaffed RINO-RI would lose the Republican primary were it held today!


4 posted on 06/22/2006 2:46:26 PM PDT by MIchaelTArchangel
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To: Gothmog

Howard Dean - The gift that just keeps on giving.


5 posted on 06/22/2006 2:47:29 PM PDT by dfwgator (Florida Gators - 2006 NCAA Men's Basketball Champions)
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To: Gothmog
Great news, but me must vote in November. We cant let the RINO's keep us at home.
6 posted on 06/22/2006 2:47:59 PM PDT by 12th_Monkey
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To: Gothmog
a congressional victory in California

Which the dims spun as an actual "win" for them.

7 posted on 06/22/2006 2:48:09 PM PDT by Graybeard58 (Remember and pray for Sgt. Matt Maupin - MIA/POW- Iraq since 04/09/04)
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To: MIchaelTArchangel

Actually I just posted this on another thread. From National Review:

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmUzNTgwZDZmMjI3ODQ3MjhlMjNiMmJkMjU3ODE1NWM=

"Next week is a big one for Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island: He must decide whether he's going to run for re-election as a Republican or as an independent. The deadline is 4 pm on Wednesday — almost exactly a week from right now. If Chafee doesn't believe he can win the GOP primary against challenger Steven Laffey, he may decide to forgo the whole thing and create a three-way race between himself, Laffey, and presumptive Democratic nominee Sheldon Whitehouse. This would create an interesting dilemma for Elizabeth Dole and the NRSC, which has already pumped a lot of cash into Chafee's re-election: Would they still support a guy who doesn't want to compete for their own party's nod?Under Rhode Island law, Chafee wouldn't actually have to drop his formal Republican affiliation: He could still say that he's a member of the party, but that he's not seeking its nomination. This may not pass the smell test, but since when has Chafee ever been required by Washington's GOP establishment to pass the smell test?"


8 posted on 06/22/2006 2:48:26 PM PDT by Gothmog
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To: Gothmog

Credit conservative talk radio!


9 posted on 06/22/2006 2:48:32 PM PDT by Don Corleone (Leave the gun..take the cannoli)
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To: Gothmog

What a great Christmas present it would be for us Michiganders if we could not only get a new Governor but a new Senator as well. Debbie ("Dangerously Incompetent") Stabenow must go.

If anyone has any suggestions on how we can get the word to fellow Michiganders that we have become a doner state because Republicans are in charge in Washington and we are sending two Democrats to represent us, I would appreciate it.


10 posted on 06/22/2006 2:48:45 PM PDT by kempster
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To: Gothmog
Well, as the race gets closer, it will naturally tighten as the GOP gets off their duff and starts to campaign under their self imposed Queensbury rules, whereas the democrats campaign everyday of the years, smearing and lying on holidays, at funerals, etc.

Furthermore, there have been indicators that despite the GOP's best efforts to blow it, the democrats have bad ideas and are untrustworthy and it shows. The final indicator is that Dick Morris made a prediction of disaster for the, and he is almost always wrong nowadays (has not been the case in the past).

11 posted on 06/22/2006 2:49:18 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: Gothmog
"Suddenly?"

As if "Republicans" are stupid enough to believe the polls...

12 posted on 06/22/2006 2:49:46 PM PDT by Reactionary (The Barking of the Native Moonbat is the Sound of Moral Nitwittery)
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To: Gothmog
..the fall elections won't be the disaster for the party that Democrats are predicting.

Why would they believe the enemy's prediction anyway?

13 posted on 06/22/2006 2:50:25 PM PDT by paudio (Universal Human Rights and Multiculturalism: Liberals want to have cake and eat it too!)
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To: Gothmog

"suddenly"?

I've been buoyant all along! ;-)


14 posted on 06/22/2006 2:52:21 PM PDT by pillut48 (CJ in TX)
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To: Gothmog
Another said "we've simply gone from being in reverse to being in neutral." Said another, until three weeks ago "there had been an uneasiness in our circles. This gives people a feeling that things are changing, that's all."
Changes maybe occurring but we shall see. The true test of change will be if the 'true'tm conservatives start to change and come on board and stop their forever wailing and moaning about staying home or 3rd party aspirations.....
15 posted on 06/22/2006 2:54:48 PM PDT by deport
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To: Gothmog

I just wish the President would start to open his mouth and respond to the insane attacks from the left. He could really do some good if he just SAID SOMETHING! Did anyone notice how his approval rating went up last year when he gave a few speeches defending his positions? Then he stopped. He'd better dust off the bully pulpit and try to help the GOP!


16 posted on 06/22/2006 2:55:20 PM PDT by PhillyRepublican
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To: Gothmog

Republicans just need to remember that while our soldiers fight insurgents on the ground in Iraq we need to fight the enemy here at home. Just keep in mind how the Democrats would steal the face and honor of our soldiers as they have already by hyping situations like Abu Grab. The Dems have been setting themselves up for a loss by positioning themselves in a hopeless position of being not just antiwar but antiAmerican. All you have to talk to one of "them" and you know they have not just a low opinion of President Bush but of the whole country. They quickly point to the European examples of tollerance and social enlightenment. They have long stepped over the line from being vocal patriots to being hateful traitors. I belive when a US citizen can no longer offer the benefit of the doubt to his or her own soldiers before offerring sympathy and comfort to the enemy then they have lost the right to be called a citizen. We need not only worry about illegals but also about those who hate this country and strip them of their citizenship and send them to live with those they so admire abroad.


17 posted on 06/22/2006 2:57:36 PM PDT by Maelstorm (Liberals only win when you accept their false premises at face value.)
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To: Gothmog

So things change quickly in politics? Who knew?!


18 posted on 06/22/2006 3:00:18 PM PDT by mainepatsfan
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To: Graybeard58

I hope they have several more similar type of "wins" this November.


19 posted on 06/22/2006 3:00:56 PM PDT by mainepatsfan
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To: Gothmog

De Vos, the Michigan governor candidate, is running positive campaign commercials, ala Reagan in 1984. It's very effective. The MI rats don't know how to respond.


20 posted on 06/22/2006 3:03:06 PM PDT by sergeantdave
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To: Gothmog
Looks like we may steal a big governorship from the Dems in Michigan

Uh oh. This phrase is going to have DUmmies up in arms.
21 posted on 06/22/2006 3:03:52 PM PDT by WinOne4TheGipper (Sometimes those who scream loudest for "justice" are the ones that want real justice the least.)
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To: 12th_Monkey
Great news, but me must vote in November.

Me will vote. Me promise.

22 posted on 06/22/2006 3:04:03 PM PDT by hsalaw
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To: kempster

What this tells me is that economic issues still trump all others when it comes to elections in this country. Everything I've seen from Michigan Freepers indicates that the state's economy has really been in the sh!tter for a while.


23 posted on 06/22/2006 3:04:54 PM PDT by Alberta's Child (Can money pay for all the days I lived awake but half asleep?)
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To: sergeantdave
De Vos, the Michigan governor candidate, is running positive campaign commercials, ala Reagan in 1984. It's very effective.

The Amway effect. No stinkin' thinkin' in the DeVos camp!

24 posted on 06/22/2006 3:08:44 PM PDT by Disambiguator (I'm not paranoid, just pragmatic.)
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To: Gothmog

The GOP will keep control of Congress...they might not even lose any seats. Once again, sleeping pills and rope will be made temporarily illegal in blue states in November...


25 posted on 06/22/2006 3:10:11 PM PDT by DesScorp
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To: Don Corleone
"Credit conservative talk radio!"

Not to mention the demonRats themselves. Their ridiculous and often anti-American stances on almost every issue can only drive those few undecided voters away from the Dark Side and over to the side of sanity.
26 posted on 06/22/2006 3:11:56 PM PDT by GunnyHartman (The DNC, misunderestimating Dubya's strategery since 2000.)
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To: Gothmog
This was predictable:

1. "Culture of corruption" falls flat with investigation of Rep. Jefferson and revelations about Rep. Mollohan.
2. Killing of Zarqawi and lack of subsequent bombshell CIA leak to drown out the good news.
3. Rove freed to strategize = GOP moves to force Iraq resolutions to floor in both Houses, resulting in huge votes of confidence in the Administration's Iraq policy and Dems in disarray.
4. al-Qatie leaves Today Show.
5. Hillary gets her Sister Souljah moment but it points up to rest of America how nutty the Democrat base is.
6. John Kerry continues to haunt Dems and won't go away.

27 posted on 06/22/2006 3:12:17 PM PDT by Dems_R_Losers (The Kerry/Lehane/Wilson/Grunwald/Cooper plot to destroy Karl Rove has failed!!)
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To: Gothmog

The Dems are living on Fantasy Island and Howard Dean is "Tattoo" crying "De plan, de plan, de plan..." waiting for their plan to land.


28 posted on 06/22/2006 3:13:26 PM PDT by RouxStir (No islam, know peace.)
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To: DesScorp

The '04 election was bad enough for the nutty left. Can you imagine the reaction if the GOP keeps control this year? A lot of these people will absolutely turn looney. Even more than they already are.


29 posted on 06/22/2006 3:14:57 PM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: Dems_R_Losers
Add:

7. Blockbuster appointment of Paulson to Treasury throws acid on MSM meme that Administration is incompetent and Pres can't get competent people to work for him
8. Tony Snow takes "kick me" sign off to WH Press Corps, engineers PR coup with President's trip to Iraq
9. Iraq forms government, makes Dems look stupid for continuing to claim there is no progress

30 posted on 06/22/2006 3:16:34 PM PDT by Dems_R_Losers (The Kerry/Lehane/Wilson/Grunwald/Cooper plot to destroy Karl Rove has failed!!)
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To: Don Corleone
Credit conservative talk radio!

...and getting Tony Snow as Press Secretary.

31 posted on 06/22/2006 3:16:53 PM PDT by mware (Americans in armchairs doing the job of the media.)
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To: kempster

"....If anyone has any suggestions on how we can get the word to fellow Michiganders that we have become a doner state because Republicans are in charge in Washington and we are sending two Democrats to represent us, I would appreciate it...."

What the heck is a "doner"? Could you possibly have meant "donor"?


32 posted on 06/22/2006 3:18:01 PM PDT by Renfield (If Gene Tracy was the entertainment at your senior prom, YOU might be a redneck...)
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To: hsalaw; 12th_Monkey
Great news, but me must vote in November. -12th_Monkey

Me will vote. Me promise.

Me are going to turnout to vote bigtime GOP all over my country.

33 posted on 06/22/2006 3:20:24 PM PDT by NutCrackerBoy
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To: Gothmog

Dick DeVos would be an excellent governor. He would probably the most pro-capitalism governor in the nation. I hope he gets a lot of support.


34 posted on 06/22/2006 3:23:22 PM PDT by winner3000
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To: Gothmog

Important Notice to DU Lurkers:

In light of these devastating developments you have only one course of action open if you hope to produce a Liberal landslide in the fall elections:

Mobilize the powerful student masses and take your cause to the streets!

The evil Republicans don't want you to know about this devastating tactic which has proven so effective in past elections!

(And don't forget; Don't let the bad guys steal another election. Conservatives vote on Tuesday and Liberals vote on Wednesday. Do not accept any contradiction on this important point.)


35 posted on 06/22/2006 3:31:54 PM PDT by NaughtiusMaximus (Whats the matter with these Liberals? Didn't they learn anything in reeducation camp?)
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To: Gothmog

If the GOP drops the immigration thing this year I think there will be a few losses in the House and maybe a net one seat loss in the Senate, but both chambers will remain Republican. I think the most important change has been the GOP base is starting to come home to Bush, because of some victories in Iraq like the Zarqawi offing as well as just simply out of fear of the extremism of the Democrats. There's nothing like a good debate over the Democrats' "retreat and defeat" policies on Iraq to focus the minds of conservatives over what's at stake in this election. Plus with gas prices coming down and the economy continuing to remain on good footing, I wouldn't bet against the GOP this fall at all.


36 posted on 06/22/2006 3:40:57 PM PDT by MikeA (Not voting in November because you're pouting is a vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House)
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To: Gothmog

Another "expert" actually figured things out! Wow!
We pick up a net 3, 4 or 5 in the House and a net 1 or 2 in the senate.


37 posted on 06/22/2006 4:01:20 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (John Spencer: Fighting to save America from Hillary Clinton..)
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To: Gothmog
Republican strategists are surging back with growing confidence that the fall elections won't be the disaster for the party that Democrats are predicting.

Republican "strategists" should know better than to put their faith in Dimm predictions.

38 posted on 06/22/2006 4:01:21 PM PDT by Right_in_Virginia
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To: Gothmog

Thank you Daily Kos!


39 posted on 06/22/2006 4:03:43 PM PDT by Dont Mention the War (This tagline is false.)
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To: MikeA
If the GOP drops the immigration thing this year I think there will be a few losses in the House and maybe a net one seat loss in the Senate, but both chambers will remain Republican. I think the most important change has been the GOP base is starting to come home to Bush, because of some victories in Iraq like the Zarqawi offing as well as just simply out of fear of the extremism of the Democrats.

Good point, but I still think the wild card in all this is going to be the illegal immigration issue. If the Republicans grow some balls and pass a bill that will make border security the primary issue (before any other "comprehensive" crap is considered), they will win in a big way. Without it, your prediction is right on target.

40 posted on 06/22/2006 4:04:59 PM PDT by Adiemus
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To: MIchaelTArchangel

And if the challenger won over Chaffee in Rhode Island primary would he lose in the Fall election?

Isn't Rhode Island a pretty liberal state?


41 posted on 06/22/2006 4:14:33 PM PDT by patriciaruth (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1562436/posts)
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To: NutCrackerBoy

good for you ogg, take buddy with you.


42 posted on 06/22/2006 4:18:35 PM PDT by 12th_Monkey
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To: Gothmog

The only disaster coming is for the Democrats.


43 posted on 06/22/2006 4:19:35 PM PDT by thoughtomator (Famous last words: "what does Ibtz mean?")
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To: Gothmog

Kerry should keep talking and conditioning his responses in the most complex way he can manage.


44 posted on 06/22/2006 4:20:00 PM PDT by RightWhale (Off touch and out of base)
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To: All
"Things have finally gone our way for two weeks," said a Republican official, "but we don't want to overstate this."

Why not? The Democrats always overstate everything!

45 posted on 06/22/2006 4:20:51 PM PDT by BushMeister ("We are a nation that has a government - not the other way around." --Ronald Reagan)
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To: Gothmog

I never, ever was worried, period!


46 posted on 06/22/2006 4:22:53 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: Gothmog

In the long run, the House and the Senate will stay in GOP hands - no major changes. The Dems may make small gains but they won't make major gains.


47 posted on 06/22/2006 4:27:01 PM PDT by Tall_Texan (I wish a political party would come along that thinks like I do.)
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To: Alberta's Child
Everything I've seen from Michigan Freepers indicates that the state's economy has really been in the sh!tter for a while.

Yup, but the problem is that Bush gets ALL the blame, not jenny.

My best friend has not been able to find a job, but would never vote for DeVos.

48 posted on 06/22/2006 5:13:17 PM PDT by mombonn (God is looking for spiritual fruit, not religious nuts.)
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To: Gothmog
Every election year this happens. The rats say they're primed to take back congress then reality starts sinking in.

It reminds me of Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown.

49 posted on 06/22/2006 5:30:08 PM PDT by Mogollon
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To: Gothmog

This isn't 1994 in reverse. It's 1998.

A basically break-even year, with a fair amount of change, but that change netting out overall.


50 posted on 06/22/2006 5:31:50 PM PDT by NeoCaveman (The Latest on the Ohio gov race http://blackwellvstrickland.blogspot.com)
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