Posted on 06/27/2006 1:46:43 PM PDT by Spiff
No congressional incumbent has yet been defeated in a primary at this midpoint of the 2006 nominating process. Republican voters in Utah’s 3rd District today are deciding whether five-term Rep. Chris Cannon will — or won’t — be the first.
Cannon is, in fact, the target of the biggest intraparty threat to an incumbent so far this year, in a contest focused on the schism between Republican Party factions over how to address illegal immigration.
While Cannon voices support for tougher border security, he is a longtime advocate of a program that would lower obstacles for immigrants who want to come to the United States to provide labor, especially in heavy-lifting, low-wage jobs that employers say are hard to fill. Cannon’s challenger, developer John Jacob, takes a more hardline view that focuses on law enforcement, closing the border and penalizing employers who hire illegal immigrants.
The contest appeared up for grabs as voters headed to the polls.
The risk to Cannon is unusually high. Though several incumbents have had subpar performances this year, none as yet has lost. And that is something of a rarity, even in an era when incumbent re-election rates have soared.
With just more than four months remaining until Election Day, primary elections have been held in 240 of the 435 House districts (55 percent). If Cannon and the rest of the House incumbents prevail in their primaries, it would mark the first time since before 1946 that every House incumbent who sought renomination was successful.
A total of 14 House incumbents have been renominated with less than 70 percent of the vote, a rough threshold for a significant “anti” vote within the incumbent’s party (list below).
The closest primary election thus far occurred May 2 in Ohio’s 2nd District, where Republican Rep. Jean Schmidt narrowly defeated former Rep. Bob McEwen, 48 percent to 42 percent.
That outcome came less than a year after a special election primary in which Schmidt outran McEwen and other candidates, and less than nine months after Schmidt defeated Democrat Paul Hackett by a margin regarded as unimpressive in a district that normally is a GOP stronghold.
The list of primary underperformers includes Texas Republican Tom DeLay, who entered a bid for re-election despite numerous ethics controversies and attracted 62 percent of the vote against three little-known GOP opponents March 7 in Texas’ 22nd District. DeLay dropped out of the race and announced his resignation from the House less than a month later, citing his disappointing primary vote as one reason.
Republicans in his district have not yet been able to name a candidate to replace DeLay because of a legal dispute with Democrats over the technical requirements for removing DeLay’s name from the ballot; the Democratic nominee is former Rep. Nick Lampson.
Of the incumbents still facing primaries this year, Democratic Rep. William J. Jefferson of Louisiana’s New Orleans-based 2nd District is the one who appears most vulnerable to a serious challenge — provided he decides to seek re-election at a time when federal authorities are conducting a highly publicized investigation of corruption allegations against him.
Alone among states, Louisiana has a primary that coincides with the national Election Day of Nov. 7. Because of that, Jefferson has until Aug. 11, the year’s latest candidate filing deadline, to decide whether to run.
If he did so, Jefferson would share a single November ballot with all other candidates, regardless of party. Should a candidate receive a majority vote in the primary, he or she would be elected outright. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two vote-getters, again regardless of party, would advance to a Dec. 9 election.
• Three at risk in the Senate. Unlike the House, the Senate sometimes has perfect renomination rates in primary elections. The last senator to lose a primary election was New Hampshire Republican Robert C. Smith in 2002, who was defeated by then-Rep. John E. Sununu (who went on to win the seat that November).
But in this election cycle, three senators face serious primary opposition.
Rhode Island Republican Lincoln Chafee — who has the least conservative record among GOP senators — faces a stiff challenge from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, who is running to Chafee’s right.
Chafee faces the difficult balancing act of courting GOP voters — a relatively small and conservative-leaning constituency in strongly Democratic-leaning Rhode Island — while not alienating the many Democrats and independents whose votes control elections in Rhode Island. The Democratic nominee almost certainly will be former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, who is within striking distance of Chafee in some polls.
Hawaii Democratic Sen. Daniel K. Akaka, who is seeking a third full term at age 81, will face perhaps the toughest test of his career in a primary against Rep. Ed Case. The 53-year-old challenger has suggested that it would be prudent that state voters elect a younger senator to serve alongside senior Democratic Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, who is Akaka’s age. Democratic establishment figures have lined up behind Akaka.
And in Connecticut, Democratic Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman — a prominent party “hawk” on defense matters, including the war in Iraq — faces a threatening challenge in the Aug. 8 primary from businessman Ned Lamont, an opponent of the Iraq war.
The last election year in which more than one senator was denied renomination was 1980, when four senators lost primary elections.
I'll bet that has something to do with it.
Voted against amendment to end special amnesty for certain Central Americans in 2006
Cosponsoring bill to reward illegal aliens with amnesty in 2005-2006
Another form of term limits is giving up your countrymens tax dollars to support an invading horde.
I think this will be a late wakeup call to the pubs.
First exit polls are now out. Kerry +3 over Jacob and Cannon combined!!
Thanks for the work and postings you've been doing.
No congressional incumbent has yet been defeated in a primary at this midpoint of the 2006 nominating process.
This I found interesting. While it may be true and certainly underscores the difficulty in displacing an incumbent, state side legislators have lost primary challenges this year. The qualifier at the start of the sentence, imo, leaves the full story incomplete. In Penn and in S.D. to name two in state legislators have lost their positions and I think it would have been nice to compare and contrast that in an otherwise decent article.
I'm sincerely hoping Cannon becomes the first to lose, followed by Chafee in September. I'm actually pulling for Leiberman to beat Kos.
You're welcome.
Illegal immigration should be the litmus test in this election. Cannon is allied with forces such as MEChA and La Raza who want unrestricted illegal immigration. He wants the taxpayers of Utah to pay for illegal immigrants who use social services(such as schooling and medical care) which is exclusively reserved for the residents of Utah because they pay taxes. He supports CIRA and its potential of having 100 million immigrants entering this country. I hope that the people of his dictrict vote him out of office because of his support of illegal immigrants
No, not if Cannon manages to squeak out 50.1% percent of the vote. Then, to the FROBL, it will be vindication, and they will be vaunting and carrying on like it was 1994.
(and BTW, IBBTD).
Yeeha! Another opportunity to post before the numero uno cannoneer Dane.
I sure hope you are right.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.