Voter turnout to increase (and what issues voters care about? (CA)

Whittier Daily News ^ | July 8, 2006 | WDN

[FairOpinion]

Four years ago, the state set a new low for turnout in the 2002 governor's election.

But don't look for that to happen again, said Stephen Kinney, a partner with Public Opinion Strategies, in a speech Friday at the Southeast Chapter of the Los Angeles County Lincoln Club.

Kinney predicted a turnout of 58 percent for the Nov. 6 election, in contrast to

50.5 percent in 2002. He based the prediction on his polling data.

Schwarzenegger's approval ratings are up to about 56 percent, he said.

"If you ask people what the important problems are, Iraq rarely comes up," Kinney said. "We live in a cocoon. We don't care about national issues."

TOP ISSUES: Kinney delineated the top eight issues that Californians care about.

They are:

ensuring Californians can read, write and speak English before graduating from high school;

preventing identity theft;

eminent domain;

environment;

crime;

wasteful government spending;

high school students' ability to pass the exit exam;

sexual molesters and making them live no closer to 2,000 feet of a school.

[FairOpinion]

Note that Iraq, terrorism, taxes, illegal immigration aren't even on the list of top issues for Californians.

Of course we don't know what the choices were on the poll questions either.

A high turnout usually favors Dems, because the unions turn out their people. So it's going to be a close elction, every vote will be important.

[Duke Wayne]

The land of Fruits and Nuts is the bluest of all states.

I long for the days of a Reagan governor in California, but those days are gone for ever and California will nuke itself with its anything goes mentality.

Good luck Arnold, I hope you win, but the Republicans should not go overboard with money in this race. You will do it on your name as a Hollywood actor, just as Reagan did, however you are two very different men.

[Paloma_55]

I note that when Schwarzenegger's numbers are at 58%, the media is not drumbeating the fact on a daily basis. If his numbers were 35%, it would be daily news on every media outlet.

[Hugin]

I find it hard to believe that illegal immigration isn't one of the main issues. I recently listened in on a telephone town hall meeting with my Congressman, Dan Lundgren. Every caller at least mentioned immigration. I always considered Dan somewhat of a RINO but I was pleasantly surprised how strong he is on the issue. He said he absolutely opposes considering any kind of guest worker program until after a the border is secured and there is real enfocement against employers of illegals. Then if a guest worker program is started, it should be limited in numbers, they should have to go back to their own country to be eleigible, and it should be only for temporary workers, eight months max then you have to go back. He also supports ending birthright citizenship for children of illegals. He said he used to think you needed a Constitutional ammendment to do so, but has become convince the 14th Ammendment does not require it, and Congress can chage it through statute.

I really didn't think I had any reason to bother voting this year, but that changed my mind. It's a pretty safe seat, but if he doesn't cave on immigration I will go if for no other reason than to show support for Lundgren.

[kingu]

Oh, but luckily, Arnold's campaign has already started covering some of the issues you mentioned. Their tax commercial is highly effective. And I'm almost eager to see what the governor's team does with the Democrat promising gay marriages if he's elected governor. What was it? 70% in favor, last poll, of marriage being only between a man and a woman?

It's going to be somewhat close, probably, because of the union turnout, but ultra-high turnout does not always result in liberal voting. As for reasons why people stop voting in California - A lot of folks wonder 'what's the point'? They pass a proposition - if it's conservative, opponents take it to every jurisdiction possible to overturn it, and if it's liberal, how dare anyone consider showing their racist nature by being critical of it?

[Amerigomag]

Note that ... illegal immigration aren't even on the list of top issues for Californians.

Actually they are, twice. #1 - English proficiency and #7 - Passing the high school exit exam. Both concerns are a direct consequence of illegal immigration. #1 is a concern for all Californians and #7 most exclusively, a concern within the increasingly large community that was founded by anchor babies.

Incidentally, here are the participation stats for the past two gubernatorial elections:

November 2002: 50.57% of registered and 36.05% of eligible
October 2003: 61.20% of registered and 43.02% of eligible.

Hopefully, the 2006 general election will fall somewhere in between. Considering that the present governor was elected by only about 20% of California's eligible voters, what can the next governor accomplish at 16%? The only mandate under those circumstances is that a vast majority of the state's voters don't approve of the governor's candidacy.

[TheOracleAtLilac]

A high turnout usually favors Dems

There was a post here several weeks ago documentiong just the opposite in presidential elections.

[nmh]

"Note that Iraq, terrorism, taxes, illegal immigration aren't even on the list of top issues for Californians."

That doesn't make sense.

You're right.

We need to see the poll questions and choices.

[monkeyshine]

You can tell it was a loaded poll by that last point "making sexual predators stay 2000 feet away from schools". I mean, if you asked people "are you in favor of keeping sexual predators 5,000 feet away from schools" the answer would be the same. 2000 feet is a number that is specific to some cause, I presume.

[calcowgirl]

Public Opinion Strategies...

I found their website: POS.org

Rather apropos, don't you think? ;-)

[goldstategop]

And George Bush isn't on the ballot. That means tough slogging for Phil Angelides, who by all acounts should have the election locked up in a Democratic-leaning state. Considering Arnold hasn't cracked 50%, that ought to be a piece of cake. But so far it hasn't happened.

(The Palestinian terrorist regime is the crisis and Israel's fist is the answer.)

[calcowgirl]

Actually they are, twice. #1 - English proficiency and #7 - Passing the high school exit exam.

Don't forget #2 - Identity theft.

Given those horror stories of stolen social security numbers, it also fits the illegal immigration category.