Posted on 07/17/2006 9:26:58 PM PDT by canuck_conservative
JERUSALEM - Hezbollah has fired hundreds of poisoned arrows deep inside Israel since it kidnapped two Israeli soldiers last Wednesday. Israel has responded by pummelling Lebanon with wide-ranging air strikes, naval gunfire and artillery.
Avi Shachar wonders how it came to this.
Before marrying a Canadian and moving to Toronto a few years ago to help the Ontario Securities Commission and the RCMP track money launderers, the 43-year-old retired Israeli Defense Forces lieutenant-colonel was the head of military intelligence in Lebanon where he studied Hezbollah closely.
"Someone fell asleep at the switch. Something happened to us. We became complacent," Mr. Shachar said in an attempt to explain how it was that Hezbollah was able to capture two Israelis and fire rockets much further into Israel than ever before. "The main issue is that things were allowed to happen after we left Lebanon six years ago that should not have been allowed to happen."
Mr. Shachar, who was returning to Canada last night after a visit to his homeland, was, like many Israelis, adamant that his country should have seen this coming.
"We are surprised, but why are we surprised?" he asked. "The abduction of soldiers should not be a surprise. This has been part of Hezbollah's MO [modus operandi] for a long time.
"When they are trying to kidnap someone, it is standard to bombard a northern village to divert attention and then pick a spot -- usually a dead zone without direct surveillance -- and prepare an ambush. And to do this along with roadside bombs and snipers."
That was roughly how Hezbollah seems to have carried out last week's kidnapping operation.
"I guess people wanted things to remain calm," Mr. Shachar said with exasperation in his voice. "I have analyzed Hamas for many years and never before did they walk around 20 feet from the border and Israeli positions with Hamas flags. Something is wrong with us for having let this happen."
The former soldier thought the kidnapping represented more of a failure of Israel's political leadership than its military to understand the grave nature of the threat posed by Hezbollah.
"Somebody made mistakes, but heads don't usually roll in Israel," Mr. Shachar said. "The threat from Hezbollah has existed for years -- there had been so many warnings -- so this became a 'cry wolf' kind of thing.
"Hezbollah had a complicated plan that took time to organize and that means creating red flags. A good analytical ability should have been able to discover this. My guess is that there were red flags that were not properly interpreted."
Although both Hezbollah and Hamas, which has been waging war with Israel in Gaza in recent weeks, were regarded as terrorist organizations by many Western governments, to most outsiders there was no discernable difference between the two groups. But Mr. Shachar said Hezbollah was a far more formidable enemy.
"There is a huge difference," he said. "Hezbollah is highly trained and motivated. They are so good at mortar fire that I used to call them the world champions at this."
Like most Israelis today, Mr. Shachar was in a quandary about what his country's next move should or might be.
"What can we do? I am not sure there is one solution. There are a combination of solutions," he said. "But recovering from a mistake is much harder than preventing a mistake."
Part of the answer was to give the UN force in southern Lebanon some "teeth." It was also necessary to get the Lebanese army to move against Hezbollah. The big powers had to become involved, too.
There are real fears here that the conflict could soon evolve into a bloody ground war that draws in other countries in the region.
"I'm sure that Hezbollah has a few more surprises up its sleeve, but I don't think this will go on that long," Mr. Shachar said. "We cannot keep a million people in shelters for weeks. Our economy cannot stand it. Nor can Lebanon allow itself to be bombed back 20 or 30 years."
Mr. Shachar was reluctantly returning to Canada to work on his new software business, which is developing systems to automate some intelligence information to help governments find money launderers. Although he admitted he was "out of the loop," as regards Israeli intelligence, he sounded torn between his work and his family in Canada and remaining in Israel at this uncertain time.
"I am frustrated. I miss the action," he said. "I would love to put my old uniform on and help."
© National Post 2006
Uh "Road map for peace" ring a bell?
Who needs a road map for peace when you can send them on the highway to hell?
The only mistake the Israelis made was buying into the notion, promulgated by Klintoon's administration, that peace could be achieved by agreements. Terrorists don't give a damn about agreements. Lying is a virtue to them. The only thing they understand is death, destruction, and overwhelming force.
What happened? Doofus, there's a one word answer: "Liberals." He's from Canuckistan, he ought to know about those.
Just do it. Second guessing from afar is declasse.
bttt
They became enamored of the "peace plans" and "roadmaps" other nations imposed upon them. Good for Israel that it finally took complete responsibility for its own survival.
The Moose never intended to obey any of the traffic laws on that road, and loudly proclaimed so. Now people are surprised?
For the love of...
No it wasn't *after* the pullout from Lebanon that you made a mistake.
You go kill everyone in Hezbollah. It isn't complicated. When people declare war on you, you fight them until their bellies are full of it and they give up or until they are dead. In this case it will be the latter, you can bank on it.
Why isn't this obvious to these nimnuts? "The SS have parked a panzer division next door. Whatever shall we do? Oh no. Horrors, horrors. We only have an army of a million men with thousands of tanks and hundreds of advanced fighters, while they have a few thousand men with AKs, mines, and rockets. We must surely read a new strident leading editorial and talk to a reporter."
This kind of comment is supposed to make me trust this guy's judgment...?"
He seems to have an "Everything has gone to hell since I left" attitude.
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