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Posted on 07/18/2006 10:18:17 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
/begin my translation
N. Korea: Paralysis of Strategic Decision-making
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Cho Myong-chol, former professor of Kim Il-sung University
So far the result of negotiation has not been good (to N. Koreans), which led to ascendance of hard-liners. In N. Korea, high-level officials have to swear that they will fight to the last drop of blood in front of Kim Jong-il if they want to survive. Only hard-line can prevail(in such a situation.) Up to now, there were people who argued for negotiation on a strategic level, but in recent days, their influence might be weakening. Irritated Kim Jong-il may be making impulsive decision, and others obey it unconditionally, driving strategic decision-making into a coma.
N. Korea-China rift could be from the conclusion that N. Korea followed China's advice, attended talks and all, but, in the end, China only pretends to be N. Korea's friend, does not have firm commitment on economic aid, and care too much about what U.S. and Japan might think. The sentiment, "Chinese also need to suffer," is rising. There may be no room in their head to even consider what their actions would lead to in days ahead.
Hong Soon-kyung, former N. Korean diplomat
N. Korea miscalculated that missile launches would pay off again, which they did in the past. N. Korean strategic planners must have a lot of headaches these days. They must have sensed that international community is not what it used to be. In particular, it is a mistake that they believed that China and Russia would not turn their backs to N. Korea.
Kim Young-hoon(alias) former agent at S. Korean operations (of NK intel)
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The economic aid of China and S. Korea is like oasis in the desert, when it comes to the survival of N. Korean regime.
Despite the plea from China and S. Korea, N. Korea figured that they would not come out strongly against N. Korea. However, China and Russia agreed to a sanction on N. Korea, and S. Korea had no choice but to follow U.S. position. With such developments, N. Korean top leadership may be paralyzed. Kim Jong-il is too much on the impusive side(these days.) Officials under him are busy toeing his line, which effectively silences some elites who know what is going on internationally.
Kim Sang-myung, former professor of Party (Indoctrination) School
To display loyalty to Kim Jong-il, you have to say, "I will fight our enemy to the last moment." He likes this type of people. As a result, accurate assessment of elites could not be put together. Only blind loyalists, hard-liners, and flatterers can dominate.
Psychologically, he is where Saddam was a few months prior to OIF. He is isolated, running out of options, and breaking down.
Ping!
"Maddie, the mother of our bomb."
Excellent post. Thanks.
I suspect that abuse of alcohol and perhaps other substances is part of the equation, as the Dear Leader steers his prison camp of a country toward the cliff.
Definitely worth a Bttt.
Thank you for the ping. Interesting.
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