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There is a word for this kind of date-linking rhetoric that eludes me at the moment. If you tell a group of people you're going to announce something on well-known day of religious importance (say if Bush made a big announcement on Easter Sunday), you are trying to appear as a prophetic authority. You are saying "Allah is with this decision" because we are doing it on this religious day.

Think about what just happened. A month before they're going to announce their decision on this offer, they force Israel's hand to do something devastating to basically neutral Lebanon. More than anything they want to split Israel and the West - and leave Israel isolated.

What will Aug 22 be? "SANCTION ISRAEL if you want us to stop our nuclear program. Jerusalem is our where our Holy Al Asqsa mosque is, and it is in danger. This is religious persecution. We our outraged. blah blah. PUNISH ISRAEL for their invasion, and we'll agree to some of your demands."

They want to FORCE A CHOICE between supporting Israel or having a succesful nuclear negotiation. This will be VERY TEMPTING FOR EUROPE. France is the weaklink in the support Israel chain, and Iran will hammer them with back channel rhetoric to lead Europe in turning their back on Israel for the sake of nuke deterrance.

France - "Do you want to support Israel (and its war) or do you want us to disarm our nukes?"

Maybe I'm way off on this, but Iran is so freakin devious it's scary. Their ability to blackmail through terrorist acts seems unparralleled since they started doing it in 1979.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isra_and_Miraj

Iran may demand sanctions against Israel or even inspections of Israel's Dimona facilities to confirm the existence of nuclear weapons. But such demands won't have any impact on the key power centers in this confrontation. France is not a key supporter of Israel now, so if France turns against Israel then Israel hasn't lost much and the situation hasn't fundamentally changed. Any Iranian demands aren't going to change the position of the US, Britain, Germany, Russia, or China and thus when Iran is done venting its frustrations over the powerful Israeli nuclear arsenal, everyone will look at Iran and say "are you finished now?" and that's about it. The situation will be unchanged: nobody outside of Iran and a few other small countries wants Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, and the rest of the world has the power to shut down Iran's nuclear program, one way or another.

So all the rantings from Iran are just like a criminal gang leader yelling out of his house at the police who have him surrounded and are moving in to arrest him. The fun-sized psycho in Iran is deluding himself that somehow he's going to win a military confrontation against all the major military powers in the world. It appears to be difficult for these Iranian leaders to face up to reality. They are so used to calling the shots, telling everyone else what to do, and doing whatever they want in Iran, and now the big world powers are telling them "no, you can't build nukes." So far, they're in denial of reality and refusing to face up to the inevitable conclusion of this confrontation.

In this poker game, Iran is already at the 'river' stage and ready to make a bluff, or show an unbeatable hand.

Yours is an interesting analysis.

France - "Do you want to support Israel (and its war) or do you want us to disarm our nukes?"

I can see this happening. Especially from the Jew-hating Euros who secretly wish the destruction of Israel because they really believe the Jews are the problem and that eliminating the Jewish state will solve all the problems in the Middle East. The attitude from the Euros on Israel has always been disgusting.