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I think your #29 is correct, the morons in Tehran really believe the Mahdi is about to appear and lead the Islamic military forces to victory over all their infidel enemies. Even if they die in the great battles they believe they will be amply rewarded by Allah for their dedication to his cause.

This is the same kind of Muslim religious fanaticism that led the Islamic Sudanese tribesmen to revolt against the British and their Egyptian vassal government in the late 19th century. They believed the Mahdi had returned in the person of their tribal chief, and in the end 20,000 of them were slaughtered at the Battle of Omdurman in 1898 by Lord Kitchener's Anglo-Egyptian army.

Winston Churchill played an active part in that battle as a young British cavalry trooper and wrote about it in his book "The River War". It's a very interesting read for anyone with an interest in the history of that time and place.