U.S. carefully watching possibility of N. Korea nuke test

(Kyodo) _ The United States is vigilantly watching the possibility of North Korea conducting a nuclear test now that it has test-fired ballistic missiles, a senior U.S. administration official told Kyodo News on Friday.

"I wouldn't rule it out," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity, adding he is unaware of any indication from North Korea that it plans to test its nuclear weapons.

Asked if the United States is exercising "vigilance" about a nuclear test, the official said, "Very absolutely."

North Korea warned of bolstering its "war deterrent for self-defense in every way by all means" in a Foreign Ministry statement issued a day after the U.N. Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution July 15 condemning Pyongyang for the July 5 missile launches.

Asked if North Korea has the ability to conduct nuclear tests, the officials said, "I would assume so...It's not that hard to conduct one if you've got the fissile material and the device."

A nuclear test "would be quite counterproductive, but North Korea does things all the time that are counterproductive," he said.

But the official warned Pyongyang that it "would be yet another very provocative act...that further isolates them and further brings the international community together in terms of determination to react to this threat."

Expressing hope on the Chinese role, the official said he believes the missile launches "will move them closer to exercising more leverage" on North Korea to comply with the resolution to recommit to the 1999 missile-test moratorium and return to the six-party denuclearization talks.

"I've always thought that there could be a lot more that they could do in terms of exercising leverage," the official said.

The possibility of a North Korean nuclear test hit headlines in the spring of last year, raising international concern about the North's preparations at its test site.

/begin my translation

N. Korea: Nuclear Test Possible If UN Sanction Is Imposed

2006.07.13

If UN passes sanction against N. Korea, N. Korea may resort to nuclear test, according to some expert. Peter Hayes, a professor at Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology in Australia argued during an interview with RFA that Kim Jong-il may carry it out to show that he does not succumb to U.S. pressure.

Professor Hayes is an expert on energy and security issues. He has been running a project to build small power plants in N. Korea to solve its energy problem. He has visited N. Korea seven times for this project.

In the interview, he suspects that, based on his experience, domestic factors strongly influenced N. Korean decision to push ahead with missile launches. He was visiting N. Korea to discuss his project during 1998 launch of Taepodong-1 missile. At the time, a senior party official explained to Prof. Hayes that it is imperative for N. Korea to show defiance against U.S. because it will maintain pride among starving N. Korean population, and loyalty to Kim Jong-il from military and bureaucracy.

He thinks that things are no different now. Last September, joint agreement was reached at 6-party talks, but N. Korea must have concluded that no progress was made due to U.S. interference. As a result, Kim Jong-il may have found it necessary to side with military and hardliners in favor of missile launches, displaying that he is a strong leader, according to the professor.

Peter Hayes: It was incumbent upon Kim Jong Il to stand strong and be seen to be strong domestically.

External factor is also at play in the decision of N. Korean missile launches at this juncture, according to his analysis. That is, N. Korea may have concluded that it has nothing to lose. The ruling party in S. Korea was crushed in the local election of late May, which would lead to scaling down of aid to N. Korea(by S. Korea,) and U.S. showed no sign of accommodating N. Korean views on nuclear issue. Since China would not easily abandon N. Korea, N. Korea may have calculated that missile launches could provoke Japan which, in turn, draws U.S. attention.

However, Prof. Hayes predicted that, since Kim Jong-il managed to draw attention of the entire world by missile launches, it may go back to negotiation with U.S. again. Nevertheless, if UN Security Council is about to impose sanction of some kind on N. Korea, N. Korea would be severely humiliated, and Kim Jong-il may resort to nuclear test, in order to show that he does not bow to U.S. pressure, he added.

Peter Hayes: If the Security Council does deeply embarrass N. Korea, deeply push on N. Korea, then the other way for Kim Jong Il to recover is to conduct nuclear test.

He predicted that, even if N. Korea goes ahead with nuclear test, it will first show off preliminary steps to the test, to maximize its value as bargaining chip, before the final test.

Washing ton = Kim Yon-ho

/end my translation

From another thread:

North Korea Claims It Is Not Little Boy

By Park Song-wu Staff Reporter

North Korea is not a ``little boy'' as it already has nuclear weapons and will not succumb to the pressure from ``big brothers,'' Kim Gye-gwan, North Korea's vice foreign minister, told three Americans visiting Pyongyang when the North launched missiles.

The plural form of brother indicates that the North was irritated by the pressure not only from the United States but also from China, its long-time communist ally and the main provider of humanitarian goods.

The Nautilus Institute, a U.S. think tank on security and sustainability, posted on its Web site a report of the trip written by Paul Carroll, program officer at the Ploughshares Fund, one of the three Americans present in Pyongyang, July 4-8.

During a meeting with Kim on July 6, a day after the North launched seven missiles, the North Korean official made what seemed to be a reference to the Pyongyang-Beijing relations.

``With respect to our missile launch, I am awaiting responses from other parties,'' Kim was quoted by Carroll as saying. ``What I hear is Big Brothers saying to Little Brother 'don't do that' but we are not a little boy, we have nuclear weapons.''

Other comments of note Carroll got over the next two days from other North Korean officials were that such tests were a way to strengthen North Korea's strength overall so that it could contribute to the ``balance of power'' in the region, thus ensuring stability.

``Upon our departure, my own impression was some wonderment that not only were three Americans allowed in during this timeframe, but the level of interaction we had and its long duration _ perhaps 10 hours of face time over three days _ was startling,'' Carroll said.

He concluded his report by underlining the necessity of engagement with North Korea on many fronts, ``particularly in the absence of official relations.''

I doubt that....with big brother, China, standing behind NK, there will no action, unless the world community(WC)desires it....and as the WC, is in a comatose, state of mind...nothing is going to happen....the only time an offensive action, will be taken against NK or Iran, is when they bomb something of America's interest....The only safety valve, is containment, and hope they self-destruct....a review of the early days of the last 2 world wars....will show a hands off, with regards to Germany, and it was only after, the threat to England, and real attacks on US property, did Roosevelt swing into action....and today, a threat to South Korea, will not move anyone in the West to start something, similarly, with Iran, a threat to Mideast counties, is not going to encourage, a military response....only if and when there is a direct threat to North America, will there be any overt defensive action....

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Can we run the test for them ?

They can observe the fallout.

Just trying to be helpful ...