Fight a democracy, kill the people

a times ^ | Jul 25, 2006 | By Spengler

[Flavius]

Conventional armies can defeat guerrilla forces with broad popular support, for it is perfectly feasible to dismantle a people, destroy its morale, and if need be expel them. It has happened in history on occasions beyond count.

The British did it to the Scots Highlanders after the 1745 rising, and to the Acadians of Canada after the Seven Years' War; Ataturk did it to the Greeks of Asia Minor in 1922; and the

[Asclepius]

This is the only analysis of the crisis that I have read so far that makes the least bit of sense.

Israel is attempting to dismantle Syria. If they have to dismantle Lebanon to do it, well, BONUS!--I just hope the US doesn't try to stop them.

[Flavius]

yeah its a bit different, just M. Savage refer to this guy often...

[Brad from Tennessee]

What about the Turks wiping out the Armenians or Saddam and the Turks trying to destroy the Kurds?

[browardchad]

Contrary to Washington's hopes, the Bashar al-Assad regime may not be viable after the destruction of Hezbollah. The flood of refugees is painful to absorb. In addition, Syria's economy depends on Lebanon. Syrian workers in Lebanon remit US$4 billion a year, double Syria's reported exports. [3] The Assad regime and its supporters draw substantial income from Lebanon's black market, which Syria continues to dominate despite the removal of Syrian troops last year.

US as well as Israeli analysts assume that the Syrian regime will do anything to survive, but in the wake of Hezbollah's collapse and the breakdown of Lebanon's Shi'ite community, it may not be obvious to Bashar Assad how he may accomplish this. Without the skim from Lebanon's black market and the remittances from Syrian workers in Lebanon, the regime's purse will shrivel and its hold on the reins will slacken. Double-crossing its allies in Tehran at just that moment might not be the wisest move, particularly with remnants of Hezbollah fleeing into Syria.

Very interesting article on the Syrian economy linked at footnote 3.

I agree with Spengler, to defeat Iran, the world will have to live with chaos. The Humpty Dumpty's of the Middle East need to be broken, and they can't be reassembled quickly or neatly.

[marron]

Blame George W Bush for this grim necessity in Lebanon, where the refugee count already has reached 15-30% of the total population. In the name of Lebanese democracy, Washington brought Hezbollah into mainstream politics, and the newly legitimized Hezbollah in turn became the focus of life for Lebanon's 1.2 million Shi'ites. To uproot Hezbollah, one has to uproot the Shi'ite community.

A little empty Bush-bashing. Otherwise a good analysis.

There is no reason at this point for either Israel or the US or what there may exist of civilized Lebanon to tolerate the further existence of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Uprooting Hezbollah may very well bring down the Assads, which I think is a feature, not a defect, if only we should be so fortunate.

Guided chaos is preferable to a toxic status quo, especially when chaos is already afoot and there is no going back even if you were dim enough to want to do so.

[InMemoriam]

Stunning analysis. Fasten your seatbelts.

If his history and current status of the South Lebanon Shia are accurate, the dogs have slipped and are down the road a good long way.

Or as he says (paraphrase) "It might be a good idea to print gasoline ration cards."

[humint]

Ultimately the chaos in the Middle East plays to US advantage.

It looks as if Israel has decided to fight the war the United States has been unable or unwilling to fight. The Bush administration has been saying the War on Terror is a global war for years but has not behaved as such. For what it’s worth the sectarian boundaries could hold the key to ending the violence. I however doubt it’s as simple as Spengler suggests. The militant Shiite crescent reaches to Israel’s northern border and in this context, any legitimate military campaign would push it back through Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and finally a decisive victory in Tehran. If this is the game plan, the U.S. has burnt incredible resources on Iraqi democracy. American efforts however have not gone up in flames yet. Saudi Arabia’s incredibly expensive construction projects are burning in Lebanon today. What a waste. Spengler left out Saudi Arabia’s generous contributions in the form of massive investment into Lebanon’s fledgling democracy at the behest of U.S. diplomats. Why would the United States want to undo all this work unless forecasts have just taken a turn for the worst? I don’t think this recent chaos plays to U.S. advantage at all; it’s plan B.

Tehran is engaged in a thermonuclear race. If it thwarted plan A, could it not thwart plan B? Spengler seems to think Israelis and Americans can fight the way the ancients did --- in a pre-Vietnam media environment. IMO the only way a democracy will ever be able to fight that way again is with an unambiguous and unfamiliar provocation by a specific enemy. Hezbollah delivered such a provocation to Israel while Syria has yet to do so. Israel would be foolish to target Syria without one as Spengler suggests. They would lose media momentum in the West. If Spengler’s fiscal forecast for Syria is accurate, Damascus will fall without a push from the Israelis Air Force regardless.

Good Post.

[bruinbirdman]

"Guided chaos is preferable to a toxic status quo"

What we are seeing may be described as "guided chaos, I prefer to call this the "grand Israeli, US plan". And it has been unfolding since long before the Hezzis kidnapped a couple of soldiers.

What is the starting point of the grand plan? Gimme your best guess. It is not 9/11.

yitbos

[Brad from Tennessee]

Even in the 1973 war when Israel was caught by surprise and Egypt crossed the Suez Canal, the Israelis--fighting forces from all over the Arab world--were victorious. At war Israel unites and shines the brightest; it finds out quickly who its friends are.

[attackcartoons]

Things have not worked out as planned. Sharansky's idea of all problems being solved by democracy has failed. The arabs seem to prefer despotic jew haters.
Time to use this to our advantage. The problem with terrorism is that it is stateless, unaccountable. The killers simply fade back into the civilian population. Well, by voting in Hamas-Hezbullah-etc, they've painted a big ass bullseye on thejmselves. We finaly have a geographical location to stomp.

http://www.attackcartoons.com

[ClaireSolt]

I remember an Israeli saying, after 9/11 that they were glad America was getting it, because they had been fighting terror a long time. I think they have advised us in helpful ways. Looks to me that they decided to take out al Quaeda first, and I have no doubt they agreed on when to go after Hezbolah. Just because it doesn't get much press does not mean that we are not also active in the Phillipines and Horn of Africa.

I went out and Alan Combes was on my car radio, abusing his callers and splitting hairs to pretend there is no problem. He hasn't learned a thing.

[marron]

Good question and food for thought. I'll be chewing on it; your thoughts?