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A new behavior-research tool, Affective Encryption Analysis, has uncovered a dramatic trend in both the US and Germany—a developing wave of potentially violent anti-Semitism.

Affective Encryption Analysis also predicts a landslide victory for Al Gore in the 2008 Presidential Election.

Um, yeah... Ooookay.

I think it might have been Ludwig von Mises who observed (contra Keynesianism) that you can't really apply "Hard Science" (Physics, Chemistry, etc.) equations to "Soft Science" (Sociology, Economics, etc.) questions -- because the Soft Sciences are based upon the actions of self-motivated, free-willed, independent actors -- not mathematically-quantifiable magnetic charges. And what a self-motivated, free-willed, independent actor will do in a given situation... well, I'm happy to say as a good Calvinist: "God Only Knows".

Unlike the Physician or the Chemist, the Sociologist or the Economist really can hope for nothing more than a predictive general average, at best... we're happy if we can get that much, and always ceteris paribus; for that matter. Your mileage may vary.

Sooooooooooo.... let's first see if Tipper Gore really does end up as the First Lady of the United States in a coupla years, before we tell Guv'nor Arnold to burn his Twisted Sister records and we all start practicing the Horst Wessel anthem.

Best, OP

"Ludwig von Mises who observed (contra Keynesianism) that you can't really apply "Hard Science" (Physics, Chemistry, etc.) equations to "Soft Science" (Sociology, Economics, etc.) questions -- because the Soft Sciences are based upon the actions of self-motivated, free-willed, independent actors -- not mathematically-quantifiable magnetic charges."
Actually, you can, but it has to be done along the lines of statistical thermodynamics - predicting the tendencies [like "entropy increases"], and not the individual outcomes. Here is a true story and illustration of this method:
My former workplace once conducted an executive search for a "sweep" [SVP- senior vice-president]. For about half a year the large office had stood empty, and nobody knew who, or when, would come to occupy it. Once, few months before they found their sweep, I had predicted to my co-workers the future nameplate for that office door. I assumed the exaggerated wild facial expression of a prophet from bad movies, and with defocused gaze and outstretched hands, prophesied as follows: "I see it... I see it... "GREEDY A-HOLE!"
Well, several months later they did find their sweep. And wouldn't you know - my prediction turned out to be so correct that a year later they had to squeeze him out - he was too much even for them!