Posted on 07/29/2006 6:13:49 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
American Enterprise Institute July 13, 2006
[Edited transcript from audio tapes]
9:00 Panel I: China & North KoreaPanelists: Randall Schriver, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Nicholas Eberstadt, AEIJacqueline Newmyer, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard UniversityModerator: Gary Schmitt, AEI
[Start Panel I: China and North Korea]
Nicholas Eberstadt: North Korea has a way of keeping itself in the news. Usually, when North Korea is in the news, it is not for very happy reasons, at least for those of us who are not in the North Korean leadership. Part of, I suppose, what we should be asking these days is what the DPRK leadership’s objectives are in promoting this on-going nuclear crisis, and now in expanding its portfolio into an international missile crisis. I have no security clearances, so I cannot give you any sort of inside information, but I do have a secret way of understanding the North Korean leadership. I read what they say. Sometimes it is very interesting to read what people say because sometimes they actually mean it.
There was this ridiculous little Austrian man in the beer halls in Bavaria in the 1920’s, and he wrote this ridiculous book. But if you had read that bestseller you would have had a much better sense of what was going to transpire in Europe in the 1930’s and the early 1940’s than if you had listened to the sophisticates who were gathering in the early days of council and foreign relations in other places.
Let me tell you a little bit about what the North Koreans say they are doing right now. Since the formal, in effect, coronation, since the official ascension of Kim Jong-Il in September of 1998, the North Korean government has unfurled two banners, two big political banners - Kang Sung Dae Kuk [sounds like] and Sun Goon Chong Chi [sounds like], the first being the powerful and prosperous state, and the second being military first politics; The North Korean government has explained what both of these slogans mean, over and over again.
The first slogan, building a powerful and prosperous state, means that the country can only be rich when the barrel of the gun is strong. The country can only be prosperous when the barrel of the gun is strong. Elaborating upon this theme, military politics is explained in the following way: military industries are key for national development. Once the defense industry has become self-sufficient, we can advance in agriculture and light industry and people’s living standards.
Now I ask you, where in the world have you ever seen a defense industrial sector that is self-sufficient? You can only have a defense industrial sector that is self-sufficient if it earns net profits. And, of course, the way for the defense sector in the DPRK to earn net profits is to extract free sources from abroad. The DPRK is engaged in a program of international military extortion, and they have more or less said so. And this program, I am sorry to report, has worked rather well during both the Clinton years, and now, during the Bush years. In fact, on George Bush’s watch, North Korea’s extraction of resources from the outside world has steadily increased. The figures for 2005, as best we can make them out, are about 50% higher for that year than for the last year of Bill Clinton’s presidency.
Now, if it were only a question of international military extortion that would, I suppose, be bad enough. But there is more, as they say in game shows. The North Korean media, the North Korean leadership have indicated this as well. It may seem absolutely preposterous to all of our gentle friends in this world to imagine that the North Korean government should think it might be able to absorb South Korea unconditionally, that it might be able to unify the Korean Peninsula under the kind and loving care of the Kim family of Pyongyang, but this is still very much a described objective, a high objective explained in North Korea,s media.
I do not think we really have much reason to doubt the hopes that the North Korean government entertains for an eventual reunification of the Korean Peninsula on its own terms, bizarre as that may sound to all of us. What would be the first step in moving towards that bizarre world future? The first step would have to be breaking the U.S.-ROK military alliance and getting the United States security guarantee for South Korea out of the way. This is where long-range ballistic missiles come in.
In marrying a long-range ballistic missile designed to hit the United States - and that is what the Pei Pu Dong [sounds like] program is for, developing missiles to hit the United States - in marrying a missile program for the delivery of nuclear warheads to a nuclear weapons program, North Korea is aiming ballistic nuclear weapons at the U.S.-ROK military alliance. The DPRK is attempting, through this long-term program, to undermine the credibility of the U.S. Defense Guarantee. If it seems the United States might hesitate, then the guarantee is worthless, and South Korea has to come to different terms with North Korean government.
I would like to say that we have made some good progress in deterring the DPRK from its nuclear, or its missile, program, but I cannot think of any evidence to affirm that generalization. DPRK has, over the past four or five years, suffered almost no penalties for its continuing and increasingly provocative nuclear violations. In the first attempt at a test-run of a penalty for the missiles, we have seen a bit of confusion, I think, we would say, at the UN. It is not clear to me why it would be bad for American interests to force Russia and China as states to choose about whether they wanted to veto a resolution or not. The way things seemed to work out, it was mainly bad consequences that fell on the U.S. ally, Japan. But I think we are likely to see much more unpleasantness in the period ahead. If the North Korean government is confident enough to begin long-range missile launches, we may be in for a very rocky road.
07/29/06
I read what they say. Sometimes it is very interesting to read what people say because sometimes they actually mean it.
Agreed. Ignoring what is self-evident is frequently a fatal flaw of so-called intellectuals.
I do not think we really have much reason to doubt the hopes that the North Korean government entertains for an eventual reunification of the Korean Peninsula on its own terms, bizarre as that may sound to all of us.
It does not sound bizzare to me, even though they fell short of safely carrying it out at the moment. I do know that this is not just a convenient cover story to maintain his regime, although it serves that role. Kim Jong-il is working toward unification on his term. Usually, people could be fairly logical and reasoned in choosing means to accomplish their cherished goal. When it comes to selecting the goal itself, aforementioned logic and reason tend to evaporate. Kim Jong-il is the case in point. People tend to confuse his way of employing means with that of choosing his goals. Hence, the silly characterization of labeling him as a 'sensible man.' I think Kim Jong-il pursues megalomaniac goal even in this late stage, just as Hitler did.
Ping!
This has been provided to the site above by Nam Shin-woo, a Korean-American who is a tireless advocate of N. Korean human rights
America went through an arms race with the Soviet Union. If the need be, we can certainly do it again with a bunch of North Koreans.
Well, as long as the South Koreans push forward their "common Koreity" with the North, the question of the ROK alliance's worth is absolutely legitimate.
I agree.They will either be Bejing and the communists norths bootlickers in the future or they will be a free democracy. Its time they choose and the US should leave if they decide the commie path.
Japanese just released their report on the Taepodong 2 launch from DPRK on 5 July. It was a COMPLETE FAILURE. I mean, first stage burned out something like 30 seconds after launch, the second stage failed to separate, and the damn thing came down just only a few 10s of kilometers off the coast, some of the junk also coming to earth on North Korean soil. What a folly! Wonder how many people were sent to Yodok Prison Camp on the Chinese Border by the North Korean Workers Party for this??
I guess Chia Head has better future as a counterfeiter or drug lord, rather than a nuke missile terrorist.:)
Well, with some luck, he can become a medium-range nuke missile terrorist, though.
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