Posted on 08/01/2006 8:36:38 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Unfortunately I don't have the confidence that you do about Dayton and Montgomery county.
Honestly I don't have the confidence in Clark county either, but I figure that Brown is the bigger unknown and that alone will push DeWiener through.
Until the party is purified
__________
Absolutely falling down LOL. A "purified political party"? It's too funny for words. I'm sure that you are sincere, and I don't mean to poke too much fun at your words, but ... the only profession less pure than prostitution is politics.
It might also be wise to ponder the thought that the GOP is the majority party ONLY by virtue of the presence of its RINOs. The purified party you speak of would be in the same positions the Dems are in today.
You need to understand that Dayton proper (like Cleveland, Toledo, Akron) has been losing population by leaps and bounds (1/3 since I came here 20 years ago!!). The overwhelming majority of that lost pop. is DEMOCRAT, because it was blue-collar/industrial. Whatever pop is coming into Mont. Co., Greene, and Warren, is white collar/technical/managerial---far more likely to be GOP. So not only can you not just look at the registration #S, but, like Jay Cost points out, you have to look at the pop. shifts.
They will be moderates, not conservatives though.
I see a LOT of apathy on both sides this time around.
Whichever side is the least apathetic will win.
congressmen are hard to beat in a gerrymandered district. senators are hard to beat because they get to campaign for reelection for 6 years while challengers usually have only 2.
Next question is "why do rinos get to be incumbent rinos (that is get elected)"
maybe it is because they make sense to the voters they represent.
staytrue wrote: "maybe it (RINOs getting elected for the first term) is because they make sense to the voters they represent."
Maybe so. I haven't studied it, but I'll throw out a several possibilities:
1) They misrepresent themselves and what they will actually do if elected.
2) They actually start out conservative but move to the left over time.
3) The majority of voting Republicans in their state/district actually support RINO policies.
4) They have name recognition, like Schwarzenegger, or large war chests for a campaign from success in business.
Brown will probably also do worse in Dayton than you might think. Wright Patt Air Force Base has a big effect on the area, and Brown's views on the military and it's use aren't going to be very popular with a large portion of those living there.
I work at Wright Pat.
What is the county name that Toledo is in? mercer? Something like that? Meigs?
That's one of the 5 I figured he'd probably win.
Frankling (Columbus), Lake (Cleveland), Athens (Dirty Hippie Land), Montgomery (Dayton) and whatever the county near Toledo is.
Lucas County.
That's what it is?
Ok. I'm practically never there, except when I'm going up to Detroit, so I don't remember.
Thanks.
Totally off topic post below:
I just heard on Rush's Detroit station today Keith Butler's (Michigan) ad asking for Democrat cross over votes, he was endorsing affirmative action and "health care for all". What a strange ad buy on the Rush Limbaugh program. I'm guessing this will cost him votes big time.
You think Sherrod Brown will vote your way on the issues you mentioned? LOLOLOL!!!!! His ACU rating is FOUR! He's Left of Dennis Kucinich!!
Brown would also vote to cut and run in Iraq. By all means, go ahead and undercut our troops with your vote.
What's your next move after voting Democrat -- calling DeWine a RINO?
Mainly it's the auto industry unions. Delphi and GM still have a significant presence in the Dayton area, though they are shrinking.
The members of those unions still have a strong belief that the Democrats and those unions are looking out for them despite all the evidence to the contrary.
However the incompetence and corruption among many Ohio Republican politicians makes it very difficult to break the loyalty of those union members away from the democratic party.
Vote for the less bad of the two choices is hardly a convincing rallying call.
I know this isn't scientific, but my hunch is that we've been in an "anti" cycle for the better part of the last year, and in politics, something ALWAYS happens to gin people up. For the GOP, the later the better (within reason). For ex., I just sense that something big internationally or nationally will break in late Aug. or Sept. and that will be that.
I dunno...the homos in Short North and Gerbil Village have made Columbus more "blue" in recent years.
Just as Democrats often make sense to a majority of all voters in a district. All it shows is that many districts are full of idiots and/or true liberals whom I wouldn't trust to spend $5 of mine, much less take a share in the government that has power over me.
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