The following is my reply from another thread. Some redundant information is there, but the whole content is pretty much relevant.
S. Korea is heading to maelstrom of political turmoil from now until end of 2007. Rather than forestalling the turmoil, Roh is deliberately stoking it. Public is decidedly against this reckless move.
Here is his pro-North policy works: First, he and his allies sabotage things essential for U.S. troop presence and backstabbing U.S. at every move. On the other hand, he works to keep U.S. from completely cutting ties with S. Korea. That is why he agreed to dispatch 3,000 S. Korean troops to Iraq, and is now actively pursuing S. Korea-U.S. FTA. He want to continue sending aids to North in large quantities and work to let U.S. troops leave, and sabotage U.S. efforts of stepped-up pressure on North. However, if U.S. completely abandons S. Korea, S. Korea can no longer serve as effective shield for N. Korea. Therefore, he provides something he thinks U.S. may not refuse.
Actually, I suspect this is in keeping with Kim Jong-il's calculation. He does not want S. Korea to completely break up with U.S. for now. To Kim Jong-il, it is important that S. Korea does not become the hostile country of U.S. at this time. Then U.S. can punch through N. Korea's shield(S. Korea) and destroy S. Korea.
Roh is content to wallow on his defiance. He not only defies U.S., Japan, but his party and general public as well. His attitude is, "I am the president, and what are you going to do about it?"
As I suspected, chances are hight that situation in S. Korea and N. Korea would end in a bang. I am not certain that war will erupt. However, people in S. Korea are talking about second impeachment of Roh. Some also argue for referendum on scrapping the combined command structure. Actually all surviving former defense ministers gathered up and voiced opposition to Roh. This time, there is little support for Roh. Roh is also stoking so-called "National Seucrity Politics." That is, a political situation where national security becomes a paramount agenda. It has been anathema to lefties in S. Korea. because it was conservatives' bread and butter. Now he is inviting it. Hardcore conservatives now in a situation where they are totally comfortable with.
I am not saying the opposition party, but grass-root activists all over the country. The opposition party, for now, is engaged in "reaching out and touching" hostile segment of voters. I am not sure how effective it would be. They are in play-safe, not-offending-anyone mode now. Things could change, but that is where it is.
Nevertheless, Roh may not leave office in an orderly way. Anti-North force can mobilize and clash with pro-North elements big time. In the background, N. Korean regime could go down.
What a wonderful situation to be in! /sarc