[Dracian]

At best, Iran could test a home grown nuke on Aug 22. If they intend to shot a missile based nuke, they are using someone other country's components. Designing a working nuke missile isn't all that easy.

Making a nuke is tough, making a small lightweight nuke is tougher still. Lots of testing needs to be done to get it right. We haven't seen nuke tests carried out in Iran that I am aware of.

[EternalHope]

At best, Iran could test a home grown nuke on Aug 22. If they intend to shot a missile based nuke, they are using someone other country's components. Designing a working nuke missile isn't all that easy.

Pakistan has working nukes, and working missiles to carry them. The head of the Pakistani nuclear program is a fanatical Jihadi and sold the plans to multiple Muslim nations. He is a national hero in Pakistan, so he was only placed under house arrest when he was arrested. He made a public confession and "apologized".

It is widely believed that North Korea has sold missiles to Iran.

Put the two together, plus enough fissionable material, and you have a nuclear armed Iran, plus the means to deliver.

It may all be "sound and fury, signifying nothing", but a bluff can backfire politically. If Iran is bluffing, then Ahmadinejad may have talked himself into a corner he cannot get out of without a huge loss of face.

I hope that is what he has done, but I doubt he would take that chance.

[wolfcreek]

We haven't seen NK test one either. I'm guessing Iran will test one to spit in the face of the world. That will definitely change the complexity of the problem.

[dmartin]

What about the 'earthquakes' Iran has had over the past few years? I seem to recall reading that underground testing and earthquakes have a similar signature and it takes a long time and constant monitoring to pick up the background radiation.