Concerning the Recent Hezbollah Victory

Oregon Magazine ^ | August 14, 2006 | Larry Leonard

[jammer]

When one weighs the objectives of Israel going in against those accomplished, it's difficult for me to consider the outcome a victory.

Agree. I think everybody, worldwide, lost. But Hez is kicking, so their loss was tactical, not strategic.

[Mack the knife]

From the Associated Press: BEIRUT, Lebanon Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said Monday that his guerrillas achieved a "strategic, historic victory" against Israel - a declaration that prompted celebratory gunfire across the Lebanese capital.

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With all due respect -- I would NOT YET declare a victory for any of the sides. This is like trying to judge a Steel Cage wrestling match with lots of wrestlers after the first few minutes. It also kind of reminds me of the first round of the first "Rocky" fight - both sides were bloodied, and woke up to the fact that they had a real fight on their hands.

So far, everybody has lost something significant, and we are all arguing over who lost the most in order to declare a winner. Ain't no winner till the fat lady sings.

Iran lost at least $1 billion of arms that they shipped to Hezbullah, and lost their "ace in the hole", threatening Israel with missiles at a time of their choosing.

Syria is now acknowledged as a supplier of weapons to Hezbullah, and many Muslim nations don't like this a bit -- they might not even protest too much if Syria got mashed a bit.

Lebanon lost a bunch of infrastructure, lost their word play (Hezbullah is not a "militia", it is a "resistance", so it doesn't have to be disarmed in accordance with UN resolution 1559), are being exposed as not being a fully sovereign state over all their territory, and are staring at either a civil war with Hezbullah and the Shia, or another attack by Israel -- and this time Beirut will be mawled. The Lebanese will be forced into a decision, and either one will decimate them. Sucks to be them.

Hezbullah killed some Israeli soldiers, stopped the IDF from walking over them by using using tactics of hiding in bunkers in civilian areas and conducting hit and run attacks using high priced high-tech anti-tank weapons, and so have been awarded "bragging rights." On the other hand, Hezbullah lost a bunch of their weapons and bunkers they had spent 6 years building (and the "secret" that they had them),lost a non-insignificant portion of their fighters, and lost their "state within a state" status. They have been unmasked and shoved into the light -- since they won't disarm, either they will take over Lebanon (in which case any attack by Hezbullah will be an attack by Lebanon), or they will try to intimidate the rest of Lebanon - leading to a two front civil war - Hezbullah and the Shia against north Lebanon, while Israel waits in the wings to attack from the South, and daring Syria to intervene.

Israel lost some soldiers, some buildings, and some face because they did not walk over Hezbullah -- but on the other hand, they awoke to the Hezbullah style of fighting. "Lessons Learned" are being compiled as we speak.

So ... Lebanon rebuilds while Israel and Hezbullah rearm. Hezbullah will smuggle in more missiles ... and Israel will import bunker busters, more bulldozers, and enough artillery and napalm to flatten anything that resists them next time. And they will grow enough balls to unleash the military next time and tell them to ignore "civilian" casualties.

And when the world complains, Israel will point out that as long as Hezbullah targets Israeli civilians, they cannot be criticized for targeting the Lebanese "civilians" that they are hiding in.