Why Republicans Will Win This Fall

Human Events ^ | August 17 2006 | R. Emmett Tyrrell Jr.

[Reagan Man]

Well, it is a very pleasant time to be in Washington. Senators and representatives alike have vacated the premises. Most have headed off to ply their trade on their constituents. The off-year elections are approaching, and most of our federal legislators want another stint at what the Democrats call "public service." That is a euphemism for what all reasonable observers call the "public trough."

The Democrats are in a sunny mood. As they see it, we are losing in Iraq. We are losing the war on terror. And Wal-Mart just posted a quarterly loss. All of this means, so the Democrats believe, that they will sweep the Senate and the House this fall. Their solution to the war in Iraq and to the war on terror is: "Come Home, America." They want our troops out of Iraq. They advocate fighting the war on terror closer to home. As Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton puts it, "We still have not done what we need to do to protect our ports, our borders, our bridges, our transit systems, our rail lines -- it's a long list." So, "Come Home, America." That is the refrain last made famous by Sen. Clinton's presidential candidate in 1972, Sen. George McGovern. She really has not changed all that much since then, nor have the rest of the Democrats.

President George W. Bush wants us to fight our wars on foreign soil. Most Americans agree. According to the recent Newsweek poll, 55% of the citizenry favor the way he is handling the war on terror and homeland security, an improvement of 11% over the last two months. Doubtless, Americans are not as approving of the way he has handled the war in Iraq, but their major concern is terrorism, according to a CBS News poll conducted after the British broke up that terror ring last week. Now the American electorate is going to have the next three months to weigh the merits of the Democratic alternative to the president's approach to national security. My guess is that the electorate will again reject "Come Home, America."

In an off-year election the president's party is supposed to suffer losses on Capitol Hill. It is indicative of the dreadful condition of the Democrats that the president's party actually gained seats in the last off-year election. Surely this time the Republicans will lose seats, but I predict that they will still hang on to both houses.

The first reason for this is that the president's insight that it is best to fight terrorists in foreign lands rather than to wait for them to arrive here is more appealing to Americans than the Democrats' "Come Home, America" strategy. Most Americans also understand that to thwart another 9/11, the government is going to have to surveil bank transactions, communications and travel. Frankly, I think most Americans would also approve of profiling, and in fact I suspect our government will be profiling rather soon. The only outrage I have heard of in response to news reports of government surveillance has come from journalists, the ACLU and the Democratic leadership, which is to say the Democratic leadership and its agents.

This brings us to the second reason that the Republicans will maintain both houses this fall. The Democrats have no appealing alternative to the Republicans. This is true on a whole range of matters from national security to the war on terror to the economy. The Democrats have been shrieking about the economy for six years, six years that have mainly been years of economic growth. Their alternative is to raise taxes, which surely is an alternative to growth. Yet my guess is that most Americans prefer growth.

A year or more ago the complaint heard most often about the Democratic Party was that it had not settled on a message. That was claptrap then and it is claptrap now. The Democrats have a message, but the message has no resonance beyond the Democratic Party. Their message is "Come Home, America." Polls show Americans dissatisfied with the condition of the country; but when they have to choose between a president who wants to fight our enemies abroad and the Democrats, most Americans will choose the Republicans. All the criticism from the Democrats over our war in Iraq and our war on terror amounts to being what an earlier president chided his war critics as, to wit: "back-seat drivers." The president was Franklin D. Roosevelt.

[Reagan Man]

>>>> .... the president's insight that it is best to fight terrorists in foreign lands rather than to wait for them to arrive here is more appealing to Americans than the Democrats' "Come Home, America" strategy.

[TexasCajun]

I hear Vegas is taking odds on how many Algore inspired recounts will be called for following widespread Democrat loses.

[facedown]

That is a euphemism for what all reasonable observers call the "public trough."

Sadly, it's been that way since the Washington administration.

[doug from upland]

Tyrrell is one of my very favorite writes. I am envious of his use of the language. Unfortunately, I am really worried about November. The President allowed the attacks by the Dems to go unanswered for far too long. People actually believed he told us we would find nuclear weapons in Iraq.

[trek]

What are the futures markets saying about the November election? (if they are taking contracts on politics this year)

[GulfBreeze]

Yea. I agree with the Presidential quote but we're still gonna lose a few. And what's more, down ballots are going to suffer.

That's all a pain in the arse but whatever...

[bobjam]

"back seat drivers" and "monday morning quarterbacks" could be some good lines for the GOP to use in the next few months

[Calpernia]

What about the enemy within?

GOP.gov is now chaired by the Log Cabin Republicans

Mr. Robert Kabel Present State Chairman, District of Columbia Republican Committee, elected December 6, 2004 Previous Special Assistant to President Reagan, 1982-1984 Chairman, Log Cabin Republicans, 1993-1999 Chairman, Liberty Education Forum, 2001-2004 Member, Foreign Claims Settlement Commission, 1986-1989 Member, Board of Trustees, Denison University Trustee, Whiteman – Walker Clinic, Washington, DC RNC Activity ---------------------------------------------------- Robert J. Kabel - Log Cabin Republicans - GOP Chairman His Financial support includes: http://www.sldn.org Servicemembers Legal Defense Network This Network is also financed by: David Mixner - headed up the Vietnam Moratorium and was a leading anti-Vietnam War activist. David Mixner was also Bill Clinton's gay advisor and is now McGreevey's gay advisor. Affiliated with lambda.org SLDN partnered with the ACLU to jointly persue a Lesbian & Gay Rights Project

[kesg]

I essentially agree with this. Except for a bit more unhappiness about Iraq, the political dynamics/fundamentals haven't changed since 9/11/2001. And they favor the GOP.

Yes, the poll numbers have recently looked depressing, but they always look depressing for Republicans during the Spring and Summer months. At this time two years ago, Kerry still led Bush in the polls. The Democrats appeared poised to make gains in Congress as well. Their problem is that they tend to peak in August and then tank in November. What happens between August and September? Pollsters start polling likely voters rather than "adults," the serious people return from summer vacation, and these peope start actually focusing on political issues. In 2004, Bush and those GOPers who looked to be in so much trouble in August did just fine on election day.

[Yo-Yo]

Tradesports has the GOP keeping the Senate but losing the House.

[RexBeach]

It's the way you win wars...go after the guy on his home turf and kick the snot out of him. My God, if we had fought WW2 the way the Democrats want to fight the WOT, we might all be speaking Japanese and or German.

[GulfBreeze]

actually Rep. Deborah Pryce chairs GOP.gov

[My2Cents]

According to the recent Newsweek poll, 55% of the citizenry favor the way he is handling the war on terror and homeland security, an improvement of 11% over the last two months.

Well, that little news item certainly got buried by the MSM.

[GoBucks2002]

I wish I could share Tyrell's optimism. Certainly, he is correct that the Dims have no strategy beyond "Come Home, America" but it is a sign of our party's inherent weakness that we have not consigned these clowns to the dustbin. A race between "dumb and dumber" still means our party is pretty dumb.

I think our biggest problem is that our candidates and officials, from the President on down, do not take enough credit for all that we have accomplished. The President goes out and mentions good economic numbers in a Rose Garden announcement that 99% of Americans will never see. Republican Congressmen only bring up good news when they are appearing before "safe" audiences. The fact is, there is good news on the economy, good news on the War on Terror, and good news everywhere. Problem is, no one wants to talk about it, not even those responsible for it.

So the Democrats come out swinging, repeat their lies over and over again, and we don't even try to reubt them, except maybe from the friendly confines of the Sean Hannity show.

We had the same problem in 2004, and, quite frankly, were it not for the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and the Democrats' Own-Goal on the forged documents, John Kerry would be President today.

I give zero credit to the Bush campaign, the RNC, and pretty much anyone else in politics whose area code starts with 202 or 703.

I don't know what savior is going to drop down from Heaven to save us this time around.

We are not going to keep our majority this time around, and, quite frankly, if our elected officials and their overpaid media consultants don't have the guts to defend their record, they don't deserve their plush jobs.

It's a shame that the rest of us will have to suffer the bad policies of the Democrats because we elected a bunch of chickens--ts in the first place.

[My2Cents]

the Democrats' "Come Home, America" strategy

The Democrats' strategy on terror is actually "Bring it Home."

[Teacher317]

Why Republicans Will Win This Fall

I figure that the Left predicting victory (again) is a pretty good indicator by itself.

[Reagan Man]

Michael Barone came out this week on Hannity`s radio show, predicting a GOP loss of the House. His one caveat was, if the election were held today. A razor thin victory is still in the cards for the GOP. We shall see.

[Calpernia]

I copied everything. If there is a technical difference in title, it was not my paraphrase.

[TaxMe]

Doug:

You are exactly right. Bush's administration is horrible (compared to Clinton's) about getting out there and marketing itself. It is sad you have to do such things but in a media driven world, it is necessary.

The Democrats have had three years now to sound the drumbeat of their spin on Iraq without any significant pushback. As a consequence, the Democratic spin is now the convential wisdow. THIS is Bush's primary failure?

[CPT Clay]

What does that mean?

81.5 to retain senate and 44.1% chance to take house?