[NeoCaveman]

The Dems have a Catch 22 going on:

If Cardin wins the primary black Dems may stay home, or spit their vote, handing the race to Steele.

If Queasy wins the primary scared white moderate Dems and Indies may put Steele over the top.

[MinorityRepublican]

Do not underestimate the vote fraud.

Even so, I give Steele 40% chance that he will win this, and that is unusually high for a Republican in a MD Senate race.