"Iran regularly threatens to use the so called “oil weapon”. What they’re implying they’ll do is shut down the straights of Hormuz and probably pull their daily contribution off of the petroleum market. I believe this is a credible threat that we do not want to see exercised."
I have to disagree with this. US Naval and Air Forces can and would suppress Iranian attempts to close the straights. The silkworm missile requires ground based radar guidance that can be taken out by wild weasel anti radiation missiles just as Israel just did in Lebanon. Also if we destroy their oil industry putting them on foot and in the dark, how can their threat of pulling their oil off the market be a problem? You should read my entire post as it covers how we can deal with the loss of supply.
It's a chicken or egg argument. Do we take it out of the equation first or do they? Their contribution to energy markets is real leverage against us for a reason. The big picture here is that we want more energy on the market, not less. Yes, you are right, there are energy alternatives coming online but those are taking time – time that we don’t have. They are using this time to accelerate their nuclear program. The application of diplomatic pressure on Iran can be and should be incremental. If we strike too soon and at the wrong targets, the outcome could create a situation far worse than what we have today. Recognizing that petroleum is Iran's primary economic pillar you should consider the mechanics of Iranian statecraft. What would be the impact on their ability to conduct the behavior we intend to force them to stop? Putting the Iranian people in the dark and on foot may enhance the ayatollahs’ asymmetric advantage. Two things to consider 1) the black-market petro-trade will keep the ayatollahs’ lights on ---- and 2) Asymmetric warfare is not expensive. Remember, 9/11 cost our enemies approximately 3Years, 20 lives and $500K. Our reactions to 9/11 cost the terrorists far more than the operation itself but then again, consider their timeline. They are thinking in terms of struggling for generations while the West has to provide results to constituents with Attention Deficit Disorder in an election cycle. To sustain Asymmetric operations one only needs people desperate for change and receptive to an assignment of blame for current conditions. Who is Iran’s rhetorical nemesis? – The Great Satan.
To win, I’m convinced we are going to have to take the asymmetric war to the Ayatollahs’ doorstep. We need to replace their bankrupt fascist ideology with faith in liberty and the rule of law at the community level. This is not a luxury as some suggest. If we cannot operate as allies of the Iranian community then we need allies that can. Every other alternative is a plan that in its best case delays the coming ideological conflict. The longer we wait, the bloodier it will be.
In short – the more the West challenges Iran to join the community of nations the more the Iranian regime escalates the conflict. The reason why rational requests generate irrational responses is a function of what the Iranian government is. They are fascists. Irrational reactions such as air strikes would tend to validate their fascist tendencies. There are only three things you can do to destroy a fascist regime 1) Expose it 2) Humiliate it and 3) Replace it. IMO, putting all Iranians on foot and in the dark is not the best way to do these three things…