Dear qlangley,
"By then you have a two person field. And you might find that neither of them is totally solid on social issues."
That's true. My own favorite of the moment is Sen. Allen. However, he's a pretty flawed candidate on social issues, especially abortion.
The trouble for Mr. Giuliani, however, is that once it narrows down to a two-person field, nearly any other Republican running against him will look like a true-blue down-the-line social conservative in comparison to Mr. Giuliani. As well, I'm unaware of any cut-and-runners among any leading potential Republican candidates. Thus, most candidate will be able to be credible on the war, while Mr. Giuliani will look like an alien from outer space on social issues.
In fact, if Mr. Giuliani actually does manage to survive the process to the point of being one of the last two candidates, it's possible that his effect will be merely to pull his remaining opponent toward a more hawkish position on the war.
It isn't impossible by any stretch for Mr. Giuliani to get the nomination, but it is unlikely.
However, in that his nomination will fracture (and potentially destroy) the party's coalition, it will be a darn sight harder to win the general election in the unlikely event that he wins the nomination.
sitetest
Senator Allen has, unfortunately, once again shown his inability to handle the Treason Media's stunts. He is not ready for the Big Time yet. Maybe as VP.
>>It isn't impossible by any stretch for Mr. Giuliani to get the nomination, but it is unlikely.
I agree. On the issues he looks liberal compared to any other leading Republican, therefore if he is down to the last two, the inclination will be for people to rally round A N Other. And yet, there significant numbers of conservatives, including social conservatives, who find themselves loving Giuliani, in spite of everything. And it does depend who A N Other is. An ACU rating would lead you to believe that McCain is much more conservative than Giuliani. Yet reading the posts here and at RedState leads me to conclude that most conservatives would choose Giuliani of the two. It is less clear, but possible, that the same applies to Romney.
>>However, in that his nomination will fracture (and potentially destroy) the party's coalition, it will be a darn sight harder to win the general election in the unlikely event that he wins the nomination.
On that I disagree with you strongly. There are many conservatives who would stay at home, and in another environment that would be fatal. But in the context of the GWOT I think the large bulk of Republicans would grit their teeth and vote for Giuliani over any Democrat - assuming there is no credible third party challenge.
If it comes down to a social liberal who will fight al Qaeda versus a social liberal who won't, the choice is easy. Perhaps unpalatable, but still easy.
Add to that Giuliani's substantial crossover appeal - beating Hillary in New York according to some polls - and he would win in a landslide.
For Giuliani, November is the easy bit. It is January and February that would be tough.