Posted on 08/22/2006 10:41:48 PM PDT by Dane
Banishing factoids By Linda Chavez Wednesday, August 23, 2006
Facts are stubborn things, unfortunately not nearly as stubborn as factoids. And nowhere do factoids trump facts more frequently than in the immigration debate. The latest example comes from Pat Buchanan in his new book, "State of Emergency: The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America," where Buchanan regurgitates factoids ad nauseam, all with the purpose of blaming Mexicans for just about everything wrong with America.
The problem is, some of Buchanan's "facts" are mere factoids. Let's take one of the most stubborn factoids to emerge in the immigration debate, one that Buchanan cites as do other commentators: 95 percent of all the outstanding homicide warrants in Los Angeles, which total 1,200-1,500, are for illegal aliens. Sounds pretty damning, that is until you try to pin down where it came from and what it means.
I've been tracking this particular factoid for a while, since it crops up over and over again, and I've even exchanged e-mails with the source, Heather Mac Donald of the Manhattan Institute. In 2004, Mac Donald wrote an article for the Manhattan Institute's City Journal, "The Illegal Alien Crime Wave," in which she first used this statistic.
The problem is, the Los Angeles Police Department doesn't collect information on the immigration status of criminals, much less suspects, so there is no database of how many illegal aliens are wanted on outstanding homicide warrants. When I asked Mac Donald to provide her source, she said, "The LAPD fugitive warrants section gave me that figure." I don't doubt Mac Donald's word -- she is an old friend. Someone, Mac Donald won't say who, undoubtedly gave her this misinformation. But several calls to the LAPD elicited the same response: We don't collect such information -- which was borne out by searching all available databases and talking to respected criminologists.
This particular factoid has been debunked by several sources, including the Los Angeles Times and Snopes.com, but it just won't die. And other factors make the statistic highly suspicious. In all of 2004, there were only 518 homicides in Los Angeles, suggesting that the number of outstanding warrants (no matter whom they are for) must date back over many years, unless we are to assume that all murders in 2004 were committed by at least two illegal aliens and that no one was ever been arrested for any recent homicide.
The statistics on immigrants and crime are shocking -- but not for the reasons Buchanan et al. would have you believe. It's hard to pin down statistics on how many crimes are committed by immigrants (or all Hispanics, for that matter) because the Bureau of Justice Statistics (the largest source of data) collects information broken down by race and gender, but not ethnicity or country of birth. However, it is possible to examine who's in jail or prison by nativity, which should be a pretty good proxy for determining who is committing serious crimes. And when you look at this data, the results are little short of amazing.
University of California professor Ruben Rumbaut, an expert on immigration and crime, looked at 2000 Census data on the institutionalized population in the United States, most of whom are in prisons, and came up with these astonishing facts. Immigrants are far less likely to be in jail or prison than other U.S. residents (the database covers federal, state, county and local prisons and jails). Of the U.S. population of 45.2 million men ages 18-39 (those most likely to be in the criminal population), 3 percent were incarcerated, or about 1.3 million at the time of the 2000 Census. But of these, blacks, whites and U.S.-born Hispanics had incarceration rates that dwarfed those of immigrants. Only .7 percent of Mexican-born males were in prison or jail, compared with 3.51 percent of all U.S.-born males, which includes 1.71 percent of non-Hispanic whites, 11.6 percent of blacks and 5.9 percent of Mexican Americans. Indeed, for all foreign-born groups, immigrants have lower incarceration rates than all U.S.-born racial and ethnic groups do, including whites.
But these facts have yet to banish the factoid that immigrants commit more crimes than the native born. And you can bet that demagogues like Buchanan will continue to ignore the facts and repeat the factoids.
You must be a masochist or something, posting something like this here. :)
5.56mm
ping
BTTT
Regarding looking at 2000 census data, mixed in with American nationals who are in prison to come up with some real numbers that is a joke, since the numbers of illegal immigrants are exponentially increasing not in Alaska but in the southwest, and not in 2000 but now 7 years later !
Try looking at the statistics for gang membership in LA today as an example, those who have connection to Latin cartels outnumber any other affiliations, and has nothing to do with race and everything to do with uncontrolled boarders, in which its line in the sand should make no reference to race contrary to this article.
But this rant here is just a typical response from the playbook of liberals, and even now some pro virtual slavery “conservatives” to criticize the methods of decision making which might come from incomplete facts but offer no facts or plans of their own .
OK if it’s not 95% of all outstanding warrants, then what is their statistic, and what is her plan to prove that illgels are not a drain on our law enforcement?
Want to know it, well the open border apologists, who wish to paint any body that disagrees with them as racists or un intelligent don’t have a statistics themselves !
How about this; Why should any burden have to be placed on local tax base and law enforcement to incarcerate any foreign criminals, many whom are here as terrorists gangs because that is a federal function to protect our nation from invasion?
Ok so if its not 95%, what is it 80%,, 60%, 50% ? How much is acceptable for a group of people whom are not even citizens to have outstanding warrants? . How about none!
Linda Chavez is the furthest thing from a liberal, anyway the statistics are there and they are misused to demagougue and that is her point.
BTW, the year 2006 still has four months left in it.
Funny thing that she never provided the "correct" statistic if the factoid is indeed wrong. Factoids always have some truth to them.
I saw Chavez on TV tonight and her pro-illegal talkng points were as silly and specious as those in the post.
It would take too long to expose such rhetoric point by point. By the way, speaking of exploiting illegals -- wasn't Linda turned down for her Bush appointment because she was hiring them? Maybe she has a dog in this fight!
But not the whole truth, but I guess that is fine by you.
Actually Linda was good hearted and took in a Peruvian refugee and the lady spoke very highly of Linda and was thankful for her help, but the liberals that hate Linda Chavez as much as the buchanites do, latched on to that, especially with her superb arguements knocking down affirmative action.
And native born blacks commit appx. twice the number as that.
What's your point for leaving that out. Linda Chavez didn't.
she is using the playbook of liberals, so now as with some pro virtual slavery “conservatives" who can tell the difference?
and the demagoguery here is like calling the pot calling kettle black , she can't mix in 7 year old statistics with Norwegian Americans incarcerated in Alaska because they moved there to set up drug running operations above the Arctic circle like home, to prove that we dont have problem with illegal immigrant gang cartels from Latin America that terrorize in greater proportion than any terrorist group or gang right here on our soil in the south west where the real problems are.
Huh? What are you smoking? It seems Ms. Chavez is one of the biggest critics of the corrupt unions, unlike pat buchanan who is a big fan of the labor unions.
Chavez’s latest book, Betrayal: How Union Bosses Shake Down Their Members and Corrupt American Politics (Crown Books, 2004), describes how unions divert hundreds of millions of dollars into political campaigns, often without their members’ knowledge or permission, and the public policy consequences that ensue.
Its a numbers game isn't it? each side can play their own ...
How about this one, ever wonder what the incarceration statistics would be if we could count anchor babies, and lets leave out traffic crimes, how about hard core gang members only those who are US citizen anchor babies included with illegal immigrants?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.