coming from NOT a Pennsylvanian ... I've never really belieeved that Santorum would lose. Casey has the name advantage and cuts into those Dems who are social conservatives (both of them!) but Santorum REALLY knows how to campaign and by mid-October, that's what counts.
Help me here .. my memory is that Santorum won his first race without any significant backing from the GOP organizations? Like it was a sleeper race ?
You know what that could be I don't really recall but that's worth looking into...I'll hunt around a little bit and see what I can find. I'm with you...I never really thought he would lose. He's just a very personable guy...the kinda guy who when he walks into a room, everybody knows it. Commanding but not dominating presence. The commercials he's been doing of him talking are good moves...they play to his greatest strength which is his likability.
I don't know if he received much financial backing from the GOP in his first race, but people that were involved in that race have described as similiar to the organization put together for Toomey. Meaning ground up. Grassroots won.
IMO, that's why his backing Specter hurt him because the grassroots got him there and it hurt their enthusiasm as they were also the primary force behind Toomey.
He does have the reputation of running an extremely good ground campaign that predates the praised GOTV efforts, and pulling out the win by the bare majority at the end. That's why I've never understood anyone believing this campaign was down 10-20 points. It just isn't possible for him to be below 9% at the most, but far more likely between 3-7% if down.
But, even though I've been dismissive of every polling unit that has shown him so..which has been all polling units...LOL And even though they are showing, now, results that are far more believeable to me? I feel I have to make one further comment.
Even though I've refused to accept results that do not have the ring of truth to them, perception is a big part of politics. Having Santorum move from over 20 points behind to close within margin of error in these polls creates the impression of momentum. That "momentum" can serve to cause the opposing campaign to self inflict errors, and give the voters that shift every day the feeling they are being left off the popular bandwagon...a lot of these folks jump onto the perceived "winner" in the final days.
In conclusion, I still don't accept the previous results as accurate. But I do think they can be used to santorum's advantage now that more realistic polling results are coming in. because most people DID believe those polls.
This year Santorum will need all the help he can get as the Republican Congress has done a crappy job and Bush's approval ratings are in the toilet. Americans are also very weary of having one party control the whole government. The good news is that the Democrat party has proven that they cannot be trusted with ANY lever of government.
Every Senate seat is very important as this is where judicial nominees get decided. And we know that judicial nominees will affect our lives for years to come (not supposed to, but it's the sad fact thanks to activist leftist judges).