"The only problem is that it would take longer to complete the regime change by bankrupting Iran,..."
After Iraq, I don't count on fast anything. I agree with you on the main point, Bush will act if Iran doesn't play ball. On your last sentence, I just don't have a feel for that, but it would be nice if you are correct.
Yeah, this is a really tough situation to predict. I don't have a good sense for the level of rational thinking in the Iranian regime. They could be even crazier than they appear to be, in which case they may think they don't have to play ball and they can defeat us in a war. In that case, it will end in a relatively short war, followed by a lengthy process of putting a new government in place. We will need help from the rest of the world to set up a new semi-democratic government, if it happens.