Posted on 09/09/2006 6:02:04 PM PDT by blam
North Korea 'determined to carry out underground test'
By Sergey Soukhorukov in Pyongyang
(Filed: 10/09/2006)
Russian diplomats believe it is now "highly probable" that North Korea will officially join the nuclear club by carrying out its first underground test of an atomic device.
Kim Jong Il, the North Korean leader, is said to have made clear his intention to explode a device during recent talks with Russian and Chinese officials in Pyongyang.
Although he was pressed to resume six-party talks over his nuclear programme, the Russians concluded that he was serious in his desire to demonstrate that his scientists have successfully built a nuclear weapon.
Their fears appear to bolster American suspicions that a test is being prepared, after intelligence reports last month of unusual vehicle movements in the area believed to be the test site. Any such test would be an escalation of tension in the region and would raise the stakes in the stand-off with the United States.
During talks at the Russian and Chinese embassies, Kim was warned that such a move would alienate even Moscow and Beijing – regarded as North Korea's closest friends – who were infuriated by the country's long-range missile tests earlier this summer.
"If North Korea conducts an underground nuclear test, it will face severe punishment," said one Russian diplomat.
"It would pose a very serious threat to world peace."
He said Kim Jong Il was "irritated" by financial sanctions imposed last year by the US, including the blocking of bank accounts abroad believed to have been used for money laundering and other illegal deals, including arms and drugs trading.
Kim is said to have threatened "to use all necessary means" – including further development of the nuclear deterrent – to make Washington change its position. Six-party talks with China, America, South Korea, Japan and Russia, aimed at persuading Kim to abandon his nuclear ambitions were suspended last November.
In Washington, the State Department's spokesman, Sean McCormack, said last week that a North Korean nuclear test would be "a deeply provocative act".
Kim disappeared from the public eye the day before large scale missile tests on July 5, prompting speculation that he had gone into hiding in case there was a military response to the tests.
A book by the North Korean leader's former sushi chef, Kenji Fujimoto, says that Kim has had a bunker built near Pyongyang to shelter from a nuclear attack.
In Washington, the State Department's spokesman, Sean McCormack, said last week that a North Korean nuclear test would be "a deeply provocative act".
Yeah? And what actions will follow? Sorry, color me underwhelmed at the likely reactions that will result. A couple "harshly worded" statements by Bush and the State Dept and a useless UN resolution. Yawn.
The only underground test the NKs should be involved in is the burial of their “Dear Leader”.
It would raise the stakes, but exploding a nuclear device (it could be as crude as the Trinity test bomb) is a long way from being able to make a nuclear warhead for a missile.
I think he is more than irritated, he is scared. Blocking those accounts makes it more difficult for him to get cash to dispense the goodies that keep him in power.
And, to pass off his 'home-made' $100.00 US bills.
When the Russians and the ChiComs agree privately that Comrade Chia Pet has become more of a liability than an asset, you can be assured that North Korea's liddle dynasty will be squelched with all of the finese of stomping a cockroach. Russia and Communist China both want to maintain good diplomatic and economic ties with South Korea and Japan, and that is what Pyongyang's nuclear sabre rattling is threatening.
Moscow and Beijing both know full well that if Kim were to launch any punitive attack on U.S. interests that North Korea would be leveled from one end to the other of that godforsaken land, and the refugees would be fleeing in the direction of the ChiComs and the South Koreans. Communist China does NOT want to have to adopt the entire North Korean people post-Kim Jong Il.
So I would look for a military coup against Kim in the very near future with covert Russian/ChiCom support, because they also know that with Kim's health failing, he may want to "go out with a bang", and he isn't thinking about his latest mistress.
No kidding /sarc
The Chinese are petrified at the prospect of the NK refugees.
"Moscow and Beijing both know full well that if Kim were to launch any punitive attack on U.S. interests that North Korea would be leveled from one end to the other of that godforsaken land, and the refugees would be fleeing in the direction of the ChiComs and the South Koreans. Communist China does NOT want to have to adopt the entire North Korean people post-Kim Jong Il. "
Nahh... We would destroy the country and CNN would say that we are in a quagmire and we should have used diplomacy. Then COnyers would insist we impeach Bush.
True, but that's old news. I don't think Iran would be grandstanding like they are now if North Korea didn't show them how to do it. If North Korea does go through with a test and only gets a muted response from the US and the neighboring countries, the situation will look very bleak. On the other hand, if North Korea doesn't make good on its threat, that would be a pretty big stumble. Of course, if the US, China, or South Korea bribe NK enough to stop them from going through with a test... nevermind, you know the rest.
The Bush administration will do absolutely nothing to stop North Korea or Iran from getting nukes.
Iraq has been such an utter disaster, that I am afraid the Bush administration simply feels it can not take further military action anywhere else for a whole host of reasons.
Very sad that we have reached this point, especially considering 9-11 is just 5 short years behind us.
Yawn...total failure of the Clinton and Bush Administration. Unacceptable.
I guess they will get another verbal warning?
It is too late. Iran and North Korea are both joining the club.
THANKS A LOT - my little nephew and nieces appreciate it.
Well......we also had a chorus of folks saying something big would go down in the Middle East on Aug 22nd. That was a major flop (not that I am complaining). I guess we'll find out soon enough. I can't say I'll be terribly suprised if they did test it on Monday, though.
Hmmm... so he made his intention clear. Many tend to say that Kim lately lost his sensibility. I am not so sure. He has a master plan he is determined to carry out no matter what. For quite a while, international situation has been favorable to him. Now, it is not.
This is the only plan he has. In his situation, he cannot contemplate Plan B, which is to open his country for international weapon's inspectors and pursue economic open door policy. That would be the direct threat to his hereditary totalitarian regime maintained by mind-numbing propaganda and oppression.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1696765/posts?page=11#11
Kim's discussions with China's leaders may determine the location and date of the first joint NK/Iranian nuclear test. A small army of technicians from one of the two countries will attend the first few tests in the other country - IMO their nuclear weaopons programs have been de facto merged.
NK and Iran need only a brief time - perhaps 100 days +/- 30 days - from the first test to convert their existing plutonium implosion-type warheads from ones suitable only for delivery by aircraft or cruise missile to ones sturdy enough for delivery by their relatively primitive ballistic missiles. They got the designs for a missile-ready plutonium implosion warhead from China 20 or so years ago. They only need a small number of test shots to make certain their weapons engineering is adequate.
We may have the world's first nuclear war within six months.
See my No. 18.
I got my potsaaium Iodide here cheap and without any problems. May be a good time to get some, huh?
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