Great post thanks. I am adding something below as a reminder that, as "Oath to 9/11" depicts, there were plenty of people issuing warnings....
Strikes Show Defense Matters
By John E. Carey
Published in The San Francisco Chronicle
Friday, August 21, 1998
Yesterday, the President ordered air strikes against terrorist sites in Sudan and Afghanistan. Defense Secretary Cohen said the target in Sudan was a chemical weapon facility able to supply terrorists groups hostile to the United States. Post-Cold War foreign policy has taken a new turn.
We are living in a new strategic environment that we do not yet fully understand. Many potential adversaries pose threats to us in new and different ways. Bombings at embassies, barracks, and office buildings show how vulnerable we are to less sophisticated yet determined adversaries. The bombings to date would pale in comparison to the use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, the “weapons of mass destruction.”
Some of our adversaries are undeniably at work developing ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. This ushers in an entirely new age of threat, terrorism, intelligence and defense.
Our newest threat comes from terrorists like Osama bin Laden, a Saudi by birth that hates the U.S. and is intent upon exporting terrorism.
Republican candidate Matt Fong, running for the U.S. Senate in California, believes we need to abolish the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. He says we need to prepare defenses against ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. His concerns deserve a closer examination.
Since April of this year:
*Pakistan tested its new medium-range ballistic missile, Ghauri. Ghauri threatens all of India.
*India responded with not one but two rounds of nuclear tests. India already has proven ballistic missiles, Agni and Prithvi, that can hit all of Pakistan.
*Pakistan, despite pleas from the United States, conducted its own tests.
*North Korea’s Nodong medium-range ballistic missile, which can hit targets in South Korea and Japan, became operational.
*A bi-partisan commission headed by former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld unanimously concluded that several countries are developing longer range ballistic missiles and that the proliferation of ballistic missiles is accelerating at an alarming rate.
*The commission said that North Korea is developing an even longer range ballistic missile, which will have the capability to reach targets in Alaska and Hawaii. The commission also said it believes that the Iranian Shahab-3, a medium-range ballistic missile, “may be flight-tested at any time.” A week later, Iran tested the Shahab-3 missile.
*Intelligence estimates and a State Department official confirmed that Iran is pursuing Shahab-4, a longer range ballistic missile, and is probably embarked on a nuclear weapon program. Shahab-4 could threaten people as far away from Iran as Central Europe.
*A new CIA report to Congress confirmed that China, Russia and North Korea have been major suppliers of weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems to “countries of concern.” Countries such as Iran.
*Last Monday, the New York Times reported that as many as 15,000 people in North Korea could be engaged in nuclear developments.
The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty was made in 1972 with the Soviet Union, a nation that no longer exists. The world has changed. Nations like North Korea and Iran are unencumbered by this treaty. They find ways around our counter-proliferation efforts.
The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty is no defense against ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction in the hands of rogue nations or terrorist groups.
We need a long-term view of our future security, defense and intelligence needs. No single easy answer is apparent but one thing is certain: intelligence and defense still matter. Some treaties made during the last half century may need to be reviewed. Ballistic missile defense may become a necessity. Increased intelligence resources may be needed.
John E. Carey is a retired Naval Officer and a missile proliferation analyst in Arlington, Virginia.
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