Political chaos rules in Oaxaca (Mexico)

From a governmental standpoint, your question makes sense. But from a political viewpoint it would be sheer suicide. The Left has been working very hard to goad the Fox administration into a violent reaction to give them a cause célèbre around which to mobilize support. Fox has been very adroit in my opinion, in recognizing that the Mexican people will see the radical left for the nuts they truly are if they are permitted to continue in their rage against anything and everything in the world. Slowly but surely popular opinion has turned against Lopez Obrador and the PRD over the course of his protest against the election. We are now seeing rifts develop within the PRD which may threaten to split their party in two if they do not come back into the mainstream -- and there have been indications this week that PRD, PAN, and PRI legislators are working out a modus vivendi in the national legislature -- which shows that even among the Left in Mexico there are serious questions being asked. Throw the Oaxaca situation into the mix and you've got inmates running the asylum in full view of the rest of the country. The more the Left perpetuates the ingovernability of Oaxaca, the more the rest of Mexico gets an opportunity to see them for who they really are.

Don't underestimate Fox's political savvy here. The man is no fool, as I have learned quite well over the past few months.

21 posted on 09/12/2006 1:05:48 PM PDT by StJacques ( Liberty is always unfinished business)

"At what point does this become Calderón's problem?"

The day Calderon takes office, if not before, this becomes his problem. But read my previous post to CedarDave for the political context of this affair as I see it.

22 posted on 09/12/2006 1:07:28 PM PDT by StJacques ( Liberty is always unfinished business)

Popular Assembly of the People of Oaxaca

I wonder how much of the marches we saw in the spring was by
Popular Assembly of the People of Los Angeles

(or Dallas, or Chicago, or....)

23 posted on 09/12/2006 1:12:27 PM PDT by VOA

To: StJacques; Peach

Interesting posts and contributions to this thread.

ping to thread content and StJacques posts

24 posted on 09/12/2006 1:13:26 PM PDT by prairiebreeze (We officially have a new American political party. The American Democrat-Stalinist party.)

At some point the people tire of violence and support whichever side can cause it to cease. I worry that the Fox "hands off" policy will cause the local population to embrace the militants instead of rejecting them, especially if the PRD/APPO convince a sizable portion of the population that they will solve their immediate problem, safety.

25 posted on 09/12/2006 1:26:17 PM PDT by CedarDave

"I think they should fit right in with our leftists."..."Any inference that they are democratic (small d) should be discarded. They carry Marxist banners, shout Marxist slogans and act like Communists of past years."

OK, so now we know mexican marxists are more honest than American marxists.
(That and 'democrat party' was already copyrighted)

26 posted on 09/12/2006 1:43:57 PM PDT by norton

Your worries are not unfounded. I do see the majority of Oaxacans as already embracing the Left in their state. And that is reflected in my prediction that if a new gubernatorial election is held, the PRD will win it.

I think that it would be best for me to try to put the "national political context" of this affair in terms of the "numbers" as they stack up across Mexico. In the recent presidential election Lopez Obrador and the PRD were able to poll rather well in states just to the south of the PAN strongholds in northern Mexico. The states of Veracruz, Zacatecas, the State of Mexico (which encircles the Federal District), Michoacan (which has a long history of leftist political activism but where the PAN party has made inroads recently; Calderon is a Michoacano, e.g.), Guerrero (the Acapulco area), and even outlying southern regions of Jalisco were all places in which the PRD either made inroads where they had little influence previously, or preserved control against growing PAN support, as is especially the case in Michoacan. For the want of a better term, these states can be viewed as the "swing states" in Mexican national politics and it is not hard to gauge their reactions to the post-election controversy Lopez Obrador has brought on. They do NOT approve, and the public outcry against the PRD expressed in the State of Mexico, even extending into the PRD bastion of the Federal District, where many are very angry over the shutdown of the center of Mexico City; show very clearly that the PRD is losing support. I think you've seen some of the public opinion polls which show that 70% of Mexicans disapprove of Lopez Obrador and the PRD's tactics. This is where the political battle for the future of Mexico is being waged as Fox and the PAN party understand all too well. Even the PRI recognizes it, which is why they're aligning themselves with the PAN party in the aftermath of the recent election.

Now; as far as Oaxaca goes, in and of itself, it might appear to be a setback to simply turn the state over to the Left. And Chiapas pretty much goes along with it. But it's a trade-off that works to the advantage of the "forces of order" to let the Left have them. They won't be able to solve any problems, because they cannot spur economic development forward, so there will be no "competing model" to hold up against that which the PAN, and to a lesser extent even the PRI, urge as an alternative. It really is an instance in which Fox, and I suspect Calderon after he succeeds him, will say to the Left, okay, you've sabotaged the situation and taken control, now let's see you fix things. And they won't be able to do it. Trust to the fact that all of Mexico will be watching as that scenario unfolds.

27 posted on 09/12/2006 2:03:12 PM PDT by StJacques ( Liberty is always unfinished business)

That's further north in Sonora. Ask for Mr. Castaneda.

28 posted on 09/12/2006 2:05:40 PM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)

To: StJacques; CedarDave

..... But it's a trade-off that works to the advantage of the "forces of order" to let the Left have them. They won't be able to solve any problems, because they cannot spur economic development forward, so there will be no "competing model" ....

What I greatly fear is that by ceding these two large, remote states with their immense wilderness areas and resources to the Left, they could become Mexico's answer to FARC, subsidized by China (FARC) Cuba, and Venezuela.

29 posted on 09/13/2006 8:57:20 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (What does it matter if we’re all dead, as long as the French respect us.)

How nice of Venezuela's Chavez to say he doesn't want to meddle in the internal affairs of Mexico:

http://www.mexiconews.com.mx/20351.html

30 posted on 09/13/2006 10:59:52 AM PDT by Shuttle Shucker

If the PRD gains control of the Oaxacan state government at the ballot box they will want the political legitimacy of governing "within the system." Right now there is relative anarchy in Oaxaca. So it makes sense to impose some kind of national order on the scene.

And your comment about the FARC is not entirely off-base. I saw a news item last week which suggests the FARC is attempting to form ties with the EPR, a not-too-popular guerrilla group who seem to be in the process of relocating themselves from Guerrero to Chiapas, where they can potentially control a border region that will permit them to become giants in the cocaine import business, in business with the FARC of course.

31 posted on 09/13/2006 11:05:35 AM PDT by StJacques ( Liberty is always unfinished business)

The ties between FARC territory in northern Colombia and Baja California are already quite strong. Downtown Tijuana has had a facelift thanks to the "business," and is now the home of several Swiss Bank branches! I am reasonably sure there are daily deliveries into remote parts of the Baja Sierra, for transhipment to the US.

However, Jacques, my particular bogeyman is Chinese. The CHICOM have in effect, seem to have put a plan into operation which could cut us off from South America. They probably run FARC, have potential control of Panama, heavy influence in Venezuela, heavy influence in Cuba, etc. (including perhaps targeting Guyana, Trinidad, and Belize.)

32 posted on 09/13/2006 11:22:40 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (What does it matter if we’re all dead, as long as the French respect us.)

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