Posted on 09/21/2006 10:57:13 AM PDT by okstate
They rate her as safe because the district is heavily Republican and Wulsin is a third-tier challenger. Because the district is so Republican, this is the first independent poll anyone has bothered to do on it. I expect that those groups will quickly shift this election to "Republican Likely" or "Republican Favored", whichever is one step away from safe and two steps away from "Toss-Up." Schmidt is going back to Washington again in November, but this race should be a little less close.
I suspect the undecideds are mostly conservatives who held their nose and voted for Schmidt in 2005 thinking they would be able to beat her in the primary in 2006. When they didnt, they got upset and are threatening not to vote.
By all measures Schmidt should be well ahead. 'Ohio is pissed off at Republicans' is not very thorough reasoning, but it's the best that comes to mind.
Says right in the text: "Republicans support Schmidt 6:1."
That's roughly 86%.
I was talking about the breakdown of participants in the poll. As you can see below, and in the article, 49% of the participants were Republicans, yet the candidate got less than that percentage of votes.
It appears to me that some of the Republicans chose the Democrat. That's all I said. If you look back at the statement you quoted of mine, you'll see that I said just that.
Yes, 86% of the Republicans support Schmidt. That leaves 14% who do not. Of those, some probably are in the undecided group, but some also probably voted for the Democrat.
Partisan breakdown:
Republican 49%
Democrat 31%
Independent 18%
Wow. 25 posts and the brain-dead Brinkman crew has not shown up yet. Amazing.
I think that when President Bush's approval numbers are taken in an area such as a congressional district, they will correlate...to the congressional race to some degree.
If taken in a state, same thing in the Senatorial race.
But the National Approval numbers are virtually meaningless.
Look at your red/blue maps...the blues are small in area but dense in population and the dims vote like limmings...89-11, 79-21 that sort of thing.
Now look at the reds, huge in area thinner in population and the margins are substantially closer 57-43, 55-45, 53-47.
My point is that the Congressional elections, especially the House will not correlate to President Bush's approval rating very closely...good or bad.
I mean Bernie Sanders, a registered Socialist is going to be elected to the U. S. Senate...how Republican do you expect his replacement in the House to be? Would that change if President Bush's national approval ratings were 80% positive?
Republicans have to GOTV.
I would guess that nearly all of the undecideds are Indies...12?
If 9% are indies an they break as the others 5:4 to the dim what would that mean? R-49 D-47.
Then if the other 3% go as the partisans went that would be R-51.35 D-48.26.
Also Schmid was only elected last year so she has less incumbency power than any other congress critter I think...so she isn't much of an indicator either.
I couldn't agree more LS!
I live in the 2nd Congressional District and know the political dynamics well! . . . Per usual for Jean, the election will turn on the GOTV efforts in Clermont County -- Jean's home county! And, per usual, Clermont County will turn out BIG for Jean (as they did for President Bush who is VERY popular here)!!
[In all of Jean's previous elections (to include primaries), she broke even in Hamilton County and lost every other county in the 2nd congressional district EXCEPT Clermont and still won!!]
Yup. It's bad enough with McEwen and his check-kiting, but all the folks that think McEwen is hot $hit should consider that if Ted Strickland goes to Columbus in January, he owes the biggest thanks to Boob McEwen for making his entire public career a rousing success.
Not to worry folks, gas prices coming down, dictators spouting the RAT line on our soil, the war on terror etc.
what do the RATS have to offer, higher taxes, more attacks on the homeland, liberal judges etc. Ohioans are smarter than that.
In your rush to contradict me, you said it precisely backwards. If my analysis is correct, then Bush's approval numbers should correlate very closely with GOP success. So, the rebound in GWB's approval numbers should tack with a rebound in GOP numbers across the board.
She was supposed to win in a walk this time. This is was supposedly "safe Republican" and now she's up only 3?
Do NOT believe the agitprop you hear about a double-digit Strickland lead. All I will say is I have inside info, and Blackwell is doing just fine, esp. for this point in the game.
Do NOT believe the agitprop you hear about a double-digit Strickland lead. All I will say is I have inside info, and Blackwell is doing just fine, esp. for this point in the game.
OK state the Seminar Democrat is back. Bringing back the daily Doom and Gloom.
But LS, of course all the experts here about Ohio do not even live in the state. They spewed this same crap in 2004 saying Kerry would win Ohio. Anti-GUV were you dooming in 2004 also?
I am not up-to-date on this race but when an incumbent is in this kind of trouble after Labor Day, it's not a good sign.
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