Congressional Quarterly's election outlook page also says Schmidt is "safe." Very interesting. Either they think this poll and others are not accurate, or they give her an edge because of registration and funding.
The Times and CQ projections in other races are kind of puzzling too though. I forget which one has consistently shown Sen Talent to be slightly ahead while every poll has shown him behind. They have the MT Senate race listed as a toss up though poor Sen Burns has been trailing in every poll for months. So maybe these prognosticators see things we don't. Midterm elections often have a lot of surprises.
They rate her as safe because the district is heavily Republican and Wulsin is a third-tier challenger. Because the district is so Republican, this is the first independent poll anyone has bothered to do on it. I expect that those groups will quickly shift this election to "Republican Likely" or "Republican Favored", whichever is one step away from safe and two steps away from "Toss-Up." Schmidt is going back to Washington again in November, but this race should be a little less close.
I suspect the undecideds are mostly conservatives who held their nose and voted for Schmidt in 2005 thinking they would be able to beat her in the primary in 2006. When they didnt, they got upset and are threatening not to vote.
By all measures Schmidt should be well ahead. 'Ohio is pissed off at Republicans' is not very thorough reasoning, but it's the best that comes to mind.