Torie this is all about Jim Kolbe. He hates Graf for his anti Gay commments and is sabatoging his campaign. He is working with the Giffords staff to bring down Graf.
Kolbe has more problems with Graf than that. This is just one of those cases where the moderate Pubbies and Conservative Pubbies don't get along, fueled by Graf's challenge to Kolbe in 2004 no doubt. Add to that, that the district is marginal and this will be a tough year for Pubbies, and thus you get the pundit projections as to how this contest is going.
From what I heard is that when Kolbe won the 2004 GOP primary, Graf refused to endorse him and now Kolbe is returning the "favor" so to speak.
I am not a big fan of Jim Kolbe either, and it seems Graf has done his own damage.