the october surprise will be a sure thing -- too many unknowns in something as heavy duty as an attack on Iran. the demonicrats could cry foul saying it is an election year stunt for example, Iran could get in a lucky retaliation punch, etc.
Iran will be bombed *after* the november election (but, IMHO, it *will* be bombed, make no mistake about that)
But what do you think about Bin Laden's desire to push us toward war with Iran? That is troublesome to me --OTOH I don't want them to have nukes, either.