[PackerBronco]

Given those probabilities and assuming that taking the House and taking the Senate are independent events, then the Dems have a 41% chance of taking one or the other or both.

[drangundsturm]

I don't think you can say they are independent events. I think the history of midterms pretty much shows that there are high correlations and a tendencey for things to run one way or the other in somewhat unpredictable ways.