Lopez Obrador Attempts to "Oaxacanize" Mexico: Hoping Chaos will Force a New Election (Translation)

La Crónica de Hoy ( Mexico City ) ^ | September 27, 2006 | José Carreño Carlón ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

The Oaxacanization of the Country: From the Myth of Fraud to that of Ingovernability

It was left clear this week, the connection between the insurrectional strategy of Oaxaca and that of AMLO, which already seems to be weakening between desertions and the universal loss of prestige.

The difference is one of perspective:

For AMLO and his landscaped spaces it was considered vital to exhibit as a survival certificate the oxygen tank which he offered to the Popular Assembly of the People (sic) of Oaxaca (APPO) to identify its goal with that of the defeated presidential candidate: that of preventing the President elected at the ballot box from taking possession [of his office].

Whereas APPO slowly came around to this form of escalating its offensive against the capital of the republic and several states "the strategy of the Oaxacanization of the country," it has [instead] come to strengthen their Oaxacan enemies.

The great beneficiary was Governor Ulises Ruiz, because the threat of an APPO on the national scale is conducive to bringing down with it the institutional framework of the country, in light of the insurrectional threat.

And among the most prejudiced are those, from the PRD, PAN, and his own PRI, who would like to settle scores with the Oaxacan Chief Executive and are demanding his head since the disassociation speech of APPO with the "civil resistance" of AMLO and with any other expression of radicalism or sedition. They "swore" it was a justifiable local opposition facing an evil local government.

Everything began on Sunday, as [said] the title of a book published in 1963, with illustrations by Alberto Beltran and comments from Elena Poniatowska on Mexico City, its environs, and some provincial cities nearby.

But this time it happened last Sunday in the course of the program of Denisse Maerker on Televisa's Channel 4. There, the leader of APPO, Flavio Sosa terrified the audience with his unconvincing explanations of the assault at the hotel where they attacked Ricardo Rocha and [Oaxacan] state legislators and with his rhetoric fully assimilated within that of AMLO. He spoke of his preparations for the "peaceful popular mobilization in the capital of the country"; and that "the 2nd of July witnessed the rejection" of neoliberalism; and that "society no longer accepts this economic system"; and that "it is a referendum on what happened July 2nd, and the mobilization is a questioning of obsolete laws and out-of-date institutions."

And it all continued on Monday, with the warning of Jesus Lopez Rodriguez, of APPO's Provisional Directive Commission, which came as celestial music for AMLO, but also was political life insurance for Governor Ulises Ruiz, which thus verified the "partial confession" of the AMLO-APPO alliance against the electoral result: "we will not let Felipe Calderon take office as President," the leader exclaimed, if Ulises [Ruiz] does not leave office.

The boastfulness of the AMLO-APPO embrace continued in the press on Tuesday, with the welcoming and the offer of support in which the government of the Federal District and the PRD anticipated the Oaxacan march for, with their members, a return to the occupation of encampments in Mexico City, at the end of next week.

Closing Ranks Before the Escalation and APPO's Tardy Reflections

Also on Sunday, but in Milenio,¹ the headquarters gathering information that "APPO itself is cultivating against four governors," three of them PRD members and one from the PRI, coincidentally identified by his dispostion to accept the electoral result which gave Calderon the victory: respectively, Pablo Salazar Mendiguchia, from Chiapas; Zeferino Torreblanca, from Guerrero; Lazaro Cardenas Batel, from Michoacan, and Fidel Herrera, from Veracruz.

Another Sign of AMLO-APPO Identity, Difficult to Hide

Nearly 700 social and political organizations have decided to emulate the Oaxacan movement throughout the country, the Milenio article terrifyingly reports.

The myth of electoral fraud, AMLO's strategy thus transiting into the construction of the myth of ingovernability, seeing if with this one does manage to prevent the President-elect from taking possession [of his office] and forcing a new election.

In the growth of the APPOs in the Oaxacan style, AMLO seems to be finding his strongest point, but at the same time it appears that there APPO is finding its weakest point, in as much as it is strengthening its enemy, the Governor of Oaxaca, who is closing the ranks of institutional Mexico [behind him], showing an APPO used by AMLO in his scheme of making life impossible for the new government.

From which AMLO, from his perspective, has decided yesterday to plant among those who he considers his legislators an alert message against the application of the law and the use of public force against those he considers the new meat of ingovernability: the Oaxacan movement. While the Oaxacan leader Flavio Sosa himself took pains on Ezra Shabot's news program (W Radio) in a speech of affection for the law and separating [APPO] from the PRD, it is too late and unconvincing after the week's events.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Translator's Notes:

¹ I am fairly certain this refers to Milenio Magazine, which is located in Mexico City.

[StJacques]

I am in little doubt that the next phase of the Mexican post-election controversy will be fought in Oaxaca. And from a number of newspaper reports I have read on several Mexican web sites recently, it appears that the Mexican federal government may be preparing to use force to bring an end to the chaos there. According to an article published yesterday by El Universal columnist Ricardo Aleman, the intervention could come within a few days. These same sentiments have been voiced elsewhere and the very recent change in tone in APPO's public declarations, the above article gives you some of that, suggests that they understand that some very rough times may be ahead for them. I'm not entirely convinced that the Mexican federal government will act, because it is becoming increasingly evident that the people of Oaxaca are turning against APPO and possibly even their PRD managers.

One of the things upon which there seems to be a broad consensus, as developed in this article and elsewhere, is that AMLO is intent upon spreading what has come to be called la vida imposible (the impossible life) as a protest to Calderon's election. So the linkage of the crisis in Oaxaca, whose state government has been virtually shut down since May, to that of the national election and national institutional life, is a development that could have dangerous portents for the future. One thing that AMLO and the PRD need very badly to regain traction for their protest is a cause célèbre, and the sight of federal police agencies -- I think the PFP (Federal Preventive Police) will likely be called upon if force is used -- going after protestors in Oaxaca in defense of Ulises Ruiz, whose corruption and mismanagement of the Oaxacan state government are very well understood. But it may be that the Mexican federal government comes to the conclusion that the problem of the "ingovernability" of the country is such that they will have to respond to ensure Calderon's assumption of the presidency.

There are great risks to a forceful Mexican federal government response. I will keep my eye on this as we proceed.

[StJacques]

A Mexican Affairs and Latin American Left ping.

[Fiddlstix]

If memory serves, Oaxaca has always been a trouble spot in Mexico.

[StJacques]

Your memory serves you quite well Fiddlstix. Perhaps not as much as its next-door neighbor to the south, Chiapas, but still quite a bit. The original Mexican "homegrown" drug operations depended upon Oaxaca for marijuana and opium poppy cultivation, making the state pretty much "off limits" to federal authority. But that also brought underdevelopment along with it, because it scared development away. And if you go very far back you will find that Oaxaca was the center of violent revolutionary activity going back to Emiliano Zapata.

[StJacques]

Could you please explain why this was moved from "News/Activism" to "Bloggers and Personal"? This is a published editorial on a situation which threatens mass civil disorder in Mexico, immediately south of our border. I have obeyed the rules here and I respectfully argue that this belongs back on the "News/Activism" forum. This is not a "personal blog."

[MelonFarmerJ]

I respectfully second the request of StJacques to move his ongoing posts about the situation in Mexico back to News/Activism.

[Texan5]

Good God-I'm convinced that Obrador and his faction are certifiably insane. I'm so glad I don't have any relatives living and working in Oaxaca.

[Paperdoll]

This pit bull just won't let go, will he?

[StJacques]

"This pit bull just won't let go, will he?"

Personally, I prefer "snake" for this analogy.

Lopez Obrador is proving what I've always said about the Left. They are more about the "destruction of their enemies" than anything else.

[Kenny Bunk]

I respectfully second the request of StJacques to move his ongoing posts about the situation in Mexico back to News/Activism.

Jim, this is a most important news story, St. Jacques is providing a valuable translation service for us, and acting as a 'link clearing house.'

There is a concerted effort being made to take over our major oil supplies and supplier. There is a concerted effort underway to destabilize Mexico, with potentially catastrophic consequences for us.

On another level, this is Freerepublic's opportunity to scoop the MSM.

[StJacques]

We're back on News/Activism now. It's ok.

[redgolum]

Sounds like things are heating up. Any hints of foreign powers aiding Obrador? (Venezuela?) Great work StJack!

[norton]

There are great risks to a forceful Mexican federal government response.

And the risks of NOT taking forceful action...?

[StJacques]

". . . Any hints of foreign powers aiding Obrador? (Venezuela?) . . ."

The answer is yes and I'll give you a couple of quick links on Mexico's expulsion of Venezuelan Ambassador Vladimir Villegas back in November, 2005 for interfering in Mexican politics and Vicente Fox's very recent accusation that Chavez is continuing this interference:

Vladimir Villegas, Venezuela, and Mexico

Fox Accuses Chavez of Continued Meddling in Mexican Internal Affairs

[StJacques]

"And the risks of NOT taking forceful action...?"

They may be even greater norton, it's a very good question. My personal viewpoint is now that the people of Oaxaca seem to be standing up and demanding action from the federal government that it creates a window of opportunity to control the public spin on the action.

[StJacques]

Okay, I've got a "Oaxaca Situation" update, which I'm posting late, though I hope many of you will catch up to this tomorrow (Friday).

The Mexican Governmental Secretariat (Segob) has summoned APPO and the teacher's union to a Friday meeting at which they will present proposals for a solution to the conflict in Oaxaca. Here is the story.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Segob will present solutions to the crisis in Oaxaca to APPO

The federal dependency summons the teachers to a meeting for this Friday at 11:00 a.m.

Juan Arvizu
El Universal
Mexico City
Thursday 28 September 2006

3:57 p.m. The Governmental Secretary summoned APPO and Section 22 of the SNTE [teacher's union] to a meeting this Friday in Mexico City, with the end of presenting a series of solution proposals to the Oaxacan conflict, which brings together their dialogue with other sectors of society, Undersecretary Arturo Chavez Chavez announced.

"Over the past days we have had intense conversations with other sectors of Oaxacan society," who of late desire the return of normality, and who have proposals which will be put to the consideration of APPO and Section 22 [of the teacher's union], said Chavez Chavez, Undersecretary of Government of the Governmental Secretariat.

Right up to 2:00 p.m., on a day in which the tension has grown over an eventual intervention of public force in the city of Oaxaca, the governmental functionary declared that in Bucareli they are working intensely to put "negotiated exits" to the conflict on the table.

--------Note: "Bucareli" is the Mexico City avenue where Segob is located.--------

During the past few days, in which the directors of APPO and Section 22 withdrew from the governmental dialogue table, the functionaries of the dependency [i.e. Segob] continued their contacts with social directors, businessmen, religious leaders, as with the principal persons of the political class of the state.

Chavez Chavez said that he counts a range of possible ways of solution, which will themselves be presented to the unsatisfied who insist upon the exit of Ulises Ruiz from the governorship of the state.

The two organizations were summoned through their leaders Flavio Sosa, from APPO, and Enrique Rueda, from Section 22.
The meeting will take place in the Revolution salon of the Governmental Secretariat, at 11:00 a.m. this Friday, and the federal government team will be headed by Secretary Carlos Abascal Carranza.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And in the meantime, APPO is fortifying the barricades in Oaxaca City, evidently expecting a showdown.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Felipe's "reform proposals" do NOT excite:

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/377893.html

Good thing the Senate's voting on the border wall tomorrow...

[StJacques]

Felipe's initial proposals are, in my opinion, designed to create domestic consensus behind his presidency, not to promote reform. If AMLO's protests continue, the prospects for reform could be the real casualty.

[supremedoctrine]

Achmen nutjob and Chavez were here a day apart, with different styles and very different overall reactions to both of them, official, and otherwise.But the salient fact I take away from those delirious few days which taught us all so much is they are regional equivalents to one another, with the Iranian much the stronger, and more effective: they see a major role for themselves: Chavez playing the same role in power, dollars and influence in various Latin American venues that Achmenut plays with Hezbollah, while he spreads Venezuelan money (oil) around wherever he thinks it will buy him notoriety/ He will fail where and in ways the Man from Iran has already succeeded (through the agencies of Syria, Lebanon, and Hezbollah.)

[StJacques]

Wait two and a half months and see where Chavez is around December 1 when the opposition candidate has galvanized the opposition. Just wait. Rosales isn't going to win, but he's going to hang the bell around Chavez's neck and he'll sneak up on no one after that. Hugo's days are numbered.

[redgolum]

Sounds like there will be an armed clash.

[StJacques]

I do not expect to see the Venezuelan Army fight amongst itself, though there could be significant divisions within it over what role it should play. Widespread fraud will convince some of them that they should act and the course of that action will be difficult to envision. The real problem will be the population at large. Just because Chavez has mobilized the poorest sections of the country, and especially in and around the capital, doesn't mean that everyone else is just going to sit back and take it when the national election is clearly stolen. That's the clash that's in the offing. One sector of the population arming itself -- perhaps with the support of all or part of the army -- and going after another sector of the population. Mass violence in the streets is coming in my opinion.

[StJacques]

The situation in Oaxaca is extremely tense today as everyone awaits the results of the negotiations with the Governmental Secretary.

I don't have time to give an entire translation of the following article on El Universal, but I think I can put up enough excerpts to make its meaning clear.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Residents of Oaxaca City live through a Night of Terror

In a matter of seconds, all over the city, human rivers went down from the adjoining suburbs to fortify their barricades and to close all access roads to the capital of the state.

5:10 a.m. The people of Oaxaca lived a night of terror starting at midnight yesterday after which in the central quarter of the city they heard shots and there was an intense traffic of taxis and vehicles which crossed the streets which frightened the members of the Popular Assembly of the People of Oaxaca (APPO).

At ll:45 p.m. this Thursday the first shots were heard on Independencia street, only two blocks from the Zocalo central plaza of the city. This obliged APPO to immediately decree a red alert. . . .

. . . in all the suburbs loudspeakers could be heard with which the population sent emergency advisories.

Armed with wooden sticks and pipes, the people signaled the alert, only assisted by the noise of wooden sticks hitting against boats and lightposts.

Ardently aroused, the young, and included among them one young boy, shouted in the darkness: "We're waiting here for you dog!"

Among all the population the version which spread was that the Federal Preventive Police were about to enter the city, something in which they did not succeed.

By means of collective psychosis, the young ran from one side to the other, leaping between enormous public service trailers and trucks which were crossed throughout the Brenamiel suburb to block access to the city.

Around 4:00 a.m., the residents of this city concluded that this was the last attempt of Governor Ulises Ruiz to maintain himself in power, following soon after the failure of the stoppage of public employment that was going to begin this Thursday, in the same way as his failed proposal to summon a return to classes, which only happened in no more than 1,800 plants of the 14,000 which there are in the entire state.

APPO members also concluded that the visit of Ulises Ruiz to Mexico City was a failure, because he was only accompanied by no more than 200 municipal presidents. . . .

. . . They warned that if an armed intervention occurred it would be a "dreadful signal" for all the people of Mexico. . . .
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am having a hard time getting a grip on what is about to happen. I see all the signals which say things are about to explode and yet I continue to believe that the Mexican federal government is not about to take such action as will precipitate the running of blood in the streets. As a final note, APPO has declared a "total alert" in Oaxaca City.

[redgolum]

Not good. So things are heating up.

Are there federal troops in the area?

[Texan5]

Next thing you know Obrador will be taking hostages or something equally crazy and stupid. I hope cooler heads than his prevail in this situation.

[norton]

Thanks as usual.

However, I can't picture the central government simply allowing a coup, something like that could not be isolated to Oaxaca & Oaxaca only.

[StJacques]

"Are there federal troops in the area?"

I'm guessing you're asking if the Mexican military is available for use here. While I know nothing of their deployments, I am almost certain that they will not be used against the protestors, unless the latter arm themselves with significant weaponry. The PFP (Policia Federal Preventiva), or Federal Preventive Police, will almost certainly be the force used if it goes that far. And in the above-translated article you will see that APPO believed that the PFP was about to enter the city.

[rovenstinez]

Yeah, we here in Ole Mexico like St. Jacques, If this motion needs a 3rd of a vote, I've had a lot of my stuff pulled by the Administrator, this is NEWS, and we are glad someone has their finger on the pulse. I was in Mexico City today, the radio ads, billboards, lots of propaganda of the government trying to give positive opinions about Mexican being United...I went to the U.S. Embassy today, they are closed, ADMINISTRATIVE MAINTENANCE. Their office hours are 800am to 10:30am. Not bad for taking in $500,000 a day, charging 5,000 Mexicans each $100 MOST of them will be told to go home and forget about ever seeing the land of Bill and W.

[Founding Father]

US citizens warned against Oaxaca travel

---

Tuesday, September 26, 2006 (Oaxaca):


The US Embassy in Mexico has renewed a warning to American citizens travelling to Oaxaca, where protesters have camped out for months, burnt buses and fought pitched battles with police.

Just hours after the warning was posted on Sunday, gunmen exchanged fire with leftist protesters outside Oaxaca's Camino Real hotel, injuring two men and forcing dozens of tourists, residents and journalists to run for cover.

On Monday, President Vicente Fox's spokesperson Ruben Aguilar said officials "absolutely promised" that the problem in Oaxaca would be resolved before President Vicente Fox left office on December 1.

About 300 demonstrators armed with machetes, knives and pipes descended on the Camino Real searching for Oaxaca state Governor Ulises Ruiz, whose resignation they demand.

They accuse him of rigging the 2004 election to win office and violently repressing dissent.

Thirty protesters searched room by room for the governor, who later said he had been at a nearby restaurant but never went inside the hotel.

A group of about 40 men armed with sticks and guns then fired at the protesters outside the hotel's front door.

Some protesters drew guns and returned fire, creating panic among people in the street.

Increase in violence

Zenen Bravo, a spokesperson for the Oaxaca People's Assembly, which is coordinating the protests, said one demonstrator was shot in the elbow and another had been beaten with sticks.

Bravo accused the governor of being behind the armed group. Ruiz denied that and condemned the violence.

The US Embassy said American citizens should "consider carefully the risk of travel at this time" due to the recent increase in violence in Oaxaca.

The embassy also said it had received reports of robberies and assaults in the city, which normally has a low crime rate and is popular with tourists for its cobble stoned streets, craft markets and cuisine.

The advisory warned that protesters might try to close the local airport and that travellers should monitor developments.

Teachers protest

Oaxaca teachers went on strike in May to seek higher wages.

Protests occurred a month later when police tried to evict teachers from the city's main plaza. Joined by leftists, anarchists and students, the teachers have since taken over government buildings, as well as radio stations to broadcast calls for revolt.

Police and armed gangs have shot at demonstrators on several occasions, leaving at least two dead.

On Saturday, Ruiz warned the teachers that they would be replaced by substitutes and lose their pay unless they immediately returned to work. (AP)



http://www.ndtv.com/morenews/showmorestory.asp?slug=US+citizens+warned+against+Oaxaca+travel&id=93776

[Founding Father]

POLL NUMBERS!!! September 29, 2006
Good Morning! Last week's poll numbers from Latin America are here.

Regionwide, El Tiempo polled across several nations. Bachelet was clearly the best liked leader in the region with over 70% supporting her. With 16%, Chavez was seen as the "most important" leader in the region, but those numbers are too divided among many leaders to draw conclusions.

In Nicaragua, GCM has the race Ortega 32, Rizo 27, Montealegre 16, Jarquin 14. I don't believe that one.

In Ecuador, Market has the race Correa 26, Roldos 20, Viteri 11, Noboa 10. Cedatos/Gallup has the race Correa 26, Roldos 18, Noboa 11, Viteri 10. My analysis earlier this week on Ecuador is here. Officially, the Ecuadorian media can no longer publish polls between now and the first round, but there is nothing in Ecuadorian law about foreign or internet media publishing polls.

In Peru, over 75% will vote to reelect Lima Mayor Castaneda. The man is popular. However, another poll done by Catholic University said nearly 40% remain undecided.

In Brazil, Ibope says it's Lula 47, Alckmin 33, Helena 8. Datafolha has it Lula 49, Alckmin 31, Helena 7. Many analysts believe these numbers are a sign Lula will win in the first round because he'll pick up some of the undecided vote. I think it is too close to call. Election is this Sunday.

UPDATE: In Nicaragua, a poll this morning from M+R has the race Ortega 31, Montealegre 26, Rizo 16, Jarquin 16. The Montealegre and Rizo camps are really spinning the polls hard to each appear as the legitimate candidate of the right.

http://bloggingsbyboz.blogspot.com/2006/09/poll-numbers-september-29-2006.html

[StJacques]

Okay; a Oaxacan update for you all. Briefly put, the hopeful report I saw late last night on Univision, in which the Mexican federal Governmental Secretary (Segob) Carlos Abascal stated to the press that their negotiations with APPO had led to a successful result has been dashed today. And what is clearly going on is that the national leadership of the PRD is pushing APPO not to accept the terms Abascal and Segob have offered, which were centered around a popular referendum on Ruiz's maintenance in power.

Yesterday afternoon, Abascal informed the press that a solution was near. The news report of this information was not very reassuring because it said that APPO would not be returning to the table today, because it feared that its negotiators might be detained. Here's a short excerpt from this release:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. . . [Abascal] made known that he has summoned the sectors of the state [of Oaxaca] "for constructing a Pact of Governability, Peace, and Development," Wednesday the 4th of October [at Segob].

He stated that said pact will impel, among other reforms of the state Constitution, a mechanism for recalling the Chief Executive.

This option, valid one time, would be able to address APPO's demand that Governor Ulises Ruiz leaves office. . . .
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Oaxacan delegation did not give a formal response, but said they feared that the government was about to act against them, asked for guarantees of their safety, and said they wouldn't attend today's meeting.

And now the national leadership of the PRD is stepping in, convening in Oaxaca to discuss what they describe as a "peaceful exit" to the crisis. In my opinion, they are trying to set terms for APPO that are unachieveable, given what is pointed out in the editorial beginning this thread. Here is an excerpt:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. . . "Any solution must contain the removal of the acting Governor of the state [of Oaxaca]," the Party of the Democratic Revolution indicated, which disapproved the message of the Governmental Secretary, Carlos Abascal Carranza of Friday, in which he put forth that the crisis in Oaxaca "is very near an end." . . .
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And the news coming out of Oaxaca City is not at all encouraging. You may recall that I mentioned above that local businessmen are staging a 48 hour strike of their own, begging the federal government to step in and restore order to the city. Now APPO is threatening to retaliate against them and, if they follow through on this, I predict the federal government will respond. Univision reports that residents of Oaxaca "heard on the radio that [APPO] already has a list noting those businesses who closed so that they can sack them later" according to Javier Cavaria, who heads up a local citizen group seeking an end to the disorder. Is anyone out there surprised that the Left will not tolerate dissent in Oaxaca City?

So everyone; I think we may be looking at an explosion at the end of next week. I am very sad about it, but the Left just cannot be dealt with. I had the impression that Abascal had pretty much negotiated a way out and I noted that APPO had not publicly rejected his offer, apparently intending to return to Oaxaca to discuss it with their leadership. But the PRD will clearly have none of it. Their goal is to set a precedent by which Calderon can be removed from the presidency for a similar situation of ingovernability.

I think we're headed for a real calamity here.