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. . . I'd like to know how he goes within the near to medium future . . ."
Chavez will go in the "medium future." Once the lie is put to his façade of legitimacy, forces within Venezuela will begin to align themselves differently. The army will be the key, and Chavez has politicized it a good deal and increased its share of appropriations. But he has not completely "cleansed" it of either opposition sentiment or, more importantly, of civic sentiment. The dynamic will be one in which the rest of Venezuela aligns itself openly against Chavez's retention of power and the army comes on board last.
I give Chavez three years tops, provided that Rosales makes a strong enough showing that Chavez must use what is openly-recognized as fraud to defeat him. Rosales is not there yet, but it is now just short of two months since the opposition unified itself behind Rosales's candidacy and the growth of its power is marked. All the momentum is with Rosales right now. That was the gist of the article
at this link put up on the
El Universal (Caracas) web site this morning entitled (translated) "Mendoza says that Rosales is Marking the Electoral Agenda against Chavez." It was an interview this morning with the ex-Governor of the Venezuelan State of Miranda, Enrique Mendoza, who was commenting upon Rosales's recent success and I think it represented an accurate appraisal of what is going on. According to Mendoza Chavez is being forced to react to Rosales rather than the other way around, and that is the first time this has happened to Chavez.
Rosales clearly has the momentum. The question is can he keep it.