Posted on 10/03/2006 8:54:15 AM PDT by slowhand520
Could GOPs Still Win Foley's Seat? A new poll suggests they could. By Mickey Kaus Updated Monday, Oct. 2, 2006, at 9:23 PM ET
Not So Fast! Are we sure Rep. Foley's Florida seat is lost to the GOPs? One thing pundits seem to agree on is that "there is no question [the Foley scandal] has cost them at least one House seat," in the words of RCP's John McIntyre. That would be Foley's seat. Only 14 to go for the Dems, it would seem. But Majority Watch has already taken a post-resignation poll in Foley's district --on Sunday, Oct 1. (Click on the middle of the three glowing dots in Florida.) The result is:
Mahoney (D)--50%
Foley (R) -- 43%
True, Sunday was maybe a bit early for the anti-Foley voter reaction to have peaked. On the other hand, the GOPs have a whole month for Republican voters to drift back home, especially when they are told that a vote for "Foley" is in fact a vote for a new GOP candidate, Joe Negron. (And how could they not be paying attention to that question now?) ... Actually, Majority Watch did a second poll,--but this time told voters that "[v]otes for Foley will count as votes for a new Republican nominee to be determined next week"--and the result was
Mahoney (D)--49%
Foley (R)--46%
Seems like a margin that can be made up in a district that, per Majority Watch, is 47-32 Republican, no? ... 6:06 P.M. link
(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...
Rush called it a 'safe seat'....so I would imagine the constituents would be generally voting Republican.
I like it.
I predict and have for months that the GOP will gain seats.
If true, this shows the Dems strategy is backfiring bigtime, and that people are looking at Foley's homosexuality and preying on young boys, not at his being a Republican (of the pro-choice variety).
We beat the Dems in that district with a pedophile. Unless there is a powerful pedophile voting bloc there, we should do even better with a non-pedophile.
I say the polls are wrong.
When these things hit the fan, it's important to wait a few days before making an assessment. I think there is way too much hand wringing on these prognostication threads this cycle.
If the Republican vote is energized the seat will
be secured.
If it is as conservative a district as they say, I bet the Republicans might be happy to have a more conservative representative. Is the new Republican candidate more conservative?
Jerry Mahoney is running as a Democrat? Holy cow!
I hope the pubbies keep the seat. Anything is possible. But is it likely? Hope so.
With Foley gone, if the Republicans can focus that district on the question of what Mahoney meant when he said "Foley's dirty little secret" a few weeks ago, we could turn this on him -- suggesting he knew ahead of time about this story but was holding it off.
He'll be in a hard place. He might not have MEANT this story, he might have just meant that Foley was gay. But how could he say that in answer to the question? "No I didn't mean THIS dirty little secret, I meant that he was a gay man".
If the people of the district perceive that the democrats were playing politics to rob them of a chance to pick a candidate, or worse possibly leaving them with a pervert as their representative, they will support the republicans, who at least forced the pervert out of office.
How bad a candidate can you be if are only beating the sicko confessed sexual pervert by +7%.
Negron has a million dollars in the bank from a failed bid to win the Attorney General position. So he has some money for advertising.
The district is not all that conservative. GWB took 53% there in 2000 and 54% in 2004.
At least the GOP has the decency of removing the POS and replacing him.
Unlike the 'Rats who have no problem with sexual deviants running for office!
All Negron and the Republicans need to do is hammer away at how the opponents shopped the Foley story to all the major news media. Beat them down at their own dirty games.
The GOP could easily turn this against the Dems. In addition to your thoughts the GOP could suggest that outside forces are trying to stick their noses into the district.
One things for sure is that the Rats will have to pay lots just on this one seat for ad space if they really think they have a chance and then that will take from other districts.
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