Field Poll: Leads narrower for tax measures

Sacramento Bee ^ | 10/4/6 | Judy Lin

[SmithL]

Cigarette, energy initiatives still ahead as TV ads kick in.

A statewide television blitz appears to be working in favor of oil and tobacco interests, as a Field Poll released Tuesday shows support dropping for two tax measures they oppose on the Nov. 7 ballot.

Proposition 86, which would impose a $2.60-per-pack cigarette tax, enjoyed a 2-1 lead in July. But the gap narrowed in the new survey, conducted Sept. 14-24: 53 percent of likely voters were in support, compared with 40 percent opposed.

Proposition 87's double-digit lead shrank considerably, as well. The alternative energy tax initiative's 52 percent to 31 percent lead in July is down to 44 percent in favor and 41 percent opposed.

Poll Director Mark DiCamillo attributes the shift to a barrage of television ads.

"The more they're exposed to the television advertisements, the less they're likely to support it," DiCamillo said. "A lot (of the ads) have been on the 'no' side."

In the past six weeks, television ads financed by oil and tobacco companies appear to have been especially effective at weakening the initial desire of voters to approve both measures.

"It's not just as if they're going undecided," DiCamillo said, "they are changing their minds."

Sixty percent of voters surveyed said they had heard about Proposition 86, compared with 26 percent in July. Among those familiar with the initiative, opposition has grown from 32 percent in July to 40 percent last month.

The Field Poll found support has fallen among most of the state's major voting subgroups, including women, conservatives, seniors and nonsmokers.

In the current survey, 72 percent of likely voters said they had heard of Proposition 87, almost four times the proportion who knew about it in July.

Proposition 87 would impose a tax of up to 6 percent on oil produced in California to pay for up to $4billion

[SmithL]

[traditional1]

They got the idea from Puerto Rico, where cigarettes are $1777.78 a pack (based on today's article)?

[Brilliant]

"Poll Director Mark DiCamillo attributes the shift to a barrage of television ads."


Sounds like CA voters are easily manipulated.

[goldstategop]

The tax increase measures will be buried in November. The biggest threat is Proposition 88, which would impose a $50 per parcel statewide property tax.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus