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When North Korea Falls [the prospect of North Korea’s catastrophic collapse]
Thje Atlantic Monthly ^ | October 2006 | by Robert D. Kaplan

Posted on 10/10/2006 8:25:17 AM PDT by aculeus

The abbreviation for North Korea used by American military officers says it all: KFR, the Kim Family Regime. It is a regime whose demonization by the American media and policy makers has obscured some vital facts. North Korea’s founder, Kim Il Sung, was not merely a dreary Stalinist tyrant. As defectors from his country will tell you, he was also a popular anti-Japanese guerrilla leader in the mold of Enver Hoxha, the Stalinist tyrant of Albania who led his countrymen in a successful insurgency against the Nazis. Nor is his son Kim Jong Il anything like the childish psychopath parodied in the film Team America: World Police. It’s true that Kim Jong Il was once a playboy. But he has evolved into a canny operator. Andrei Lankov, a professor of history at South Korea’s Kookmin University, in Seoul, says that under different circumstances Kim might have actually become the successful Hollywood film producer that regime propaganda claims he already is.

Kim Jong Il’s succession was aided by the link that his father had established in the North Korean mind between the Kim Family Regime and the Choson Dynasty, which ruled the Korean peninsula for 500 years, starting in the late fourteenth century. Expertly tutored by his father, Kim consolidated power and manipulated the Chinese, the Americans, and the South Koreans into subsidizing him throughout the 1990s. And Kim is hardly impulsive: he has the equivalent of think tanks studying how best to respond to potential attacks from the United States and South Korea—attacks that themselves would be reactions to crises cleverly instigated by the North Korean government in Pyongyang. “The regime constitutes an extremely rational bunch of killers,” Lankov says.

Yet for all Kim’s canniness, there is evidence that he may be losing his edge.

(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News
KEYWORDS: brix; nodong; northkorea; robertdkaplan; robertkaplan; ronery
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Once locked behind a subscriber wall, this article is attracting lots of serious attention.
1 posted on 10/10/2006 8:25:17 AM PDT by aculeus
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To: aculeus

"It’s true that Kim Jong Il was once a playboy."

If that's the case, why did he stop doing Korean broads and set his sights on blowing up the world? I don't see Hugh Hefner trying to get nukes.


2 posted on 10/10/2006 8:27:49 AM PDT by Disturbin (Get back to work -- millions of people on welfare are counting on you!)
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To: aculeus

"Yet for all Kim’s canniness, there is evidence that he may be losing his edge."


Blah, blah, blah. There's substantial evidence already in the historical record that he long ago lost his mind.


3 posted on 10/10/2006 8:29:20 AM PDT by Jack Hammer
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To: aculeus

China won't allow it...regardless of what sanctions might be initiated.NK is far,*far* too valuable to China just the way it is.


4 posted on 10/10/2006 8:29:35 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative ("An empty limousine pulled up and Hillary Clinton got out")
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To: Disturbin
I don't see Hugh Hefner trying to get nukes.

Hef's only stockpile is a mountain of Viagra.

5 posted on 10/10/2006 8:30:18 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (Closing in on 3000 posts, of which maybe 50 were worthwhile!)
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To: aculeus
North Korea will last as long as China wants them to last..
Pure and simple..
6 posted on 10/10/2006 8:30:19 AM PDT by hosepipe (CAUTION: This propaganda is laced with hyperbole.)
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To: aculeus

7 posted on 10/10/2006 8:30:26 AM PDT by bmwcyle (Only stupid people would vote for McCain, Warner, Hagle, Snowe, Graham, or any RINO)
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To: aculeus

If North Korea does collapse, that would be a very defining moment. It would be a message to Iran and Syria, although I doubt that it would cause Iran to change its track.


8 posted on 10/10/2006 8:35:05 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: aculeus
Andrei Lankov, a professor of history at South Korea’s Kookmin University, in Seoul, says that under different circumstances Kim might have actually become the successful Hollywood film producer that regime propaganda claims he already is.

I would think that somebody who golfs in the low 20s could do much better on the PGA Tour...

9 posted on 10/10/2006 8:35:15 AM PDT by gridlock (The 'Pubbies will pick up at least TWO seats in the Senate and FOUR seats in the House in 2006)
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To: aculeus
As defectors from his country will tell you, he was also a popular anti-Japanese guerrilla leader in the mold of Enver Hoxha, the Stalinist tyrant of Albania who led his countrymen in a successful insurgency against the Nazis. Nor is his son Kim Jong Il anything like the childish psychopath parodied in the film Team America: World Police. It’s true that Kim Jong Il was once a playboy. But he has evolved into a canny operator. Andrei Lankov, a professor of history at South Korea’s Kookmin University, in Seoul, says that under different circumstances Kim might have actually become the successful Hollywood film producer that regime propaganda claims he already is.

Pardon my Korean, but this is absolute, unmitigated horse s@%t.

Kim Il Sung was, at best, a minor resistance figure. He may have taken part in a few anti-Japanese attacks, but even this is under debate. He spent most of the war hiding in Russia, where his son Kim Jong Il was born. His resistance exploits were largely invented after coming to power, and taught as fact to generations of North Koreans.

Kim Jong Il's fanatical love of movies in no way means he's a talented director, any more than his love of blondes makes him a talented lover. Fact of the matter is, North Korean press is required to portray Kim Jong Il as the best at anything he does, in a fantastic way. He's reported to play 18 rounds of golf, hitting 18 holes in one in a row, and to cause flowers to bloom by walking by them.

The fact that a far left South Korean college professor claims this sort of thing has a basis in reality is both absurd and predictable.

10 posted on 10/10/2006 8:36:31 AM PDT by Steel Wolf (As Ibn Warraq said, "There are moderate Muslims but there is no moderate Islam.")
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To: aculeus

Long, confusing article. So, is kim a genius or an idiot? The best part was when the author said the UN and the MSM would be rooting for N Korea.


11 posted on 10/10/2006 8:42:41 AM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: aculeus
...this article is attracting lots of serious attention.

From who?

12 posted on 10/10/2006 8:46:02 AM PDT by johnny7 (“And what's Fonzie like? Come on Yolanda... what's Fonzie like?!”)
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To: aculeus
The weaker North Korea gets, the more dangerous it becomes.

I'm not sure that I can buy into the premise of this article. My reading does not support any competing power groups to the Kim government. Any dissent seems quickly eliminated. In a starving nation, survival is all most people are able to think about. The greater the degree of government oppression, the smaller the per cent of active populars support need be. The situation in NK may well be one in which active support of the government is weak but one can see in Burma, for another example, that firm government control needs little more than 20% popular support (Just enough to staff the military and make for an occasional "mass" rally.

If we wait for the collapse of the Kim dynasty, we may have a long wait.

13 posted on 10/10/2006 8:49:44 AM PDT by JimSEA
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To: aculeus

Into the vacuum would return Russia and China, just like they did multiple times in the past. DPRK would go from being covertly supported by them to overtly controlled by them.


14 posted on 10/10/2006 8:51:15 AM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Take Back The GOP!)
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To: aculeus

Reports of Kim Jong-Il's imminent demise have been greatly exaggerated ... over and over and over again. It seems unlikely that, as long as Li'l Kim keeps the military well fed and whored-up, there will be any kind of coup d'etat. It certainly won't emerge from the general population.


15 posted on 10/10/2006 8:56:14 AM PDT by Rutles4Ever ("My grace is sufficient for you, for my power is made perfect in weakness." (2 Cor. 12:9))
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To: aculeus

Major point is NK sabor rattling is a sign of weakness. US is largely avoiding the dance as China is their true audience.


16 posted on 10/10/2006 9:03:38 AM PDT by Broker (talaga)
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To: aculeus

One of the reasons South Korea is supporting the North Korean regime is that, when the Kim Jong-Il government collapses, a huge stream of refugees will come boiling across into South Korea.

Much like the situation between East and West Germany when the Wall came down.


17 posted on 10/10/2006 9:18:38 AM PDT by alloysteel ("Congress is not only a legislative body, but a term for sexual intercourse." Bert Prelutsky)
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To: aculeus
"...Colonel Maxwell, the chief of staff of U.S. Special Operations in South Korea. “The regime in Pyongyang could collapse without necessarily its army corps and brigades collapsing,” Maxwell says. “So we might have to mount a relief operation at the same time that we’d be conducting combat ops..."

I just hope that we're able to extricate our troops from Iraq before they're needed for this operation.

18 posted on 10/10/2006 9:18:47 AM PDT by taylorstreet
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To: johnny7
...this article is attracting lots of serious attention.

From who?

I read several serious reference to it on line but don't remember the details.

(BTW, you meant "From whom?")

19 posted on 10/10/2006 9:37:52 AM PDT by aculeus
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To: aculeus
This was a long read. It seemed to grand the "Dear leader" a little too much humanity for my taste. However, the geopolitical, strategic implications are worthy of review. It does appear that China will ultimately benefit, particularly if it is able to create a buffer state. It would seem to me that S.Korea would not be particularly happy to concede a sphere of influence of even a part of N.Korea to China.
It does appear that the question is not will NK implode/explode, but when. I think we should avoid another Jimmy Carter type agreement. Frankly, I don't think NK will agree to give up its nukes anyway.
20 posted on 10/10/2006 10:02:09 AM PDT by GeorgefromGeorgia
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