Is Harold Ford Ahead in Tennessee?

DSCC ^ | 10/10/06 | Phil Singer

[Redmen4ever]

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is releasing a new poll today that shows Ford with a seven-point lead over Corker, 51% - 44%. Hamilton Beattie & Staff conducted the survey among 800 likely voters statewide from October 2 to October 4, 2006. The margin of error was 3.3%.

[Redmen4ever]

Partisan polls are often skewed to the benefit of the poll-takers sponsor. But, in this poll's case, we can form a pretty good idea of the bias in the poll. In this press release, the DSCC says that only 35 percent of the people of Tennessee approve of President Bush's job performance. The most recent Survey USA 50-state tracking poll indicates that 43 percent of the people of Tennessee approve of President Bush's job performance. Assuming the difference in Bush's approval numbers reflects the polls over-sampling of Democrats would imploy that, at this point, the Senate race in Tennessee is very close or maybe Corker is ahead by a bit, as opposed to Ford being ahead. Of course, from a Republican perspective, this would still be disappointing as we should be well ahead in this race.

[jveritas]

Like almost all other polls this poll is a joke. You make an excellent point on detecting the bias in this poll when it comes to President Bush approval numbers. Tennessee is a deep red conservative state and according to this lie poll President Bush approval is at 35% which lower than his National approval rate, this is impossible.

[WoodstockCat]

TN voted a Dem governor.
It's not out of the realm of possibility.
Gallup is not releasing their internal voter makeups but they have Ford at 50%.

[paratrooper82]

Just how many conservatives in Tennessee that work hard everyday, and when a Democratic pollster calls, they just happen to catch the hard working Conservatives at home and is polled about who they will most likely vote for in the next election?

How many conservatives at home (while working hard for their families)actually care about taking their stupid polls to begin with?

Never do we hear about a bad poll in favor of the Conservatives, do we?

This poll is crap, just like all the other negative polls. They are designed to gin u the Democrats and make sure that they (the Democrats) come out and vote.

When have the polls even come close to being right in the last two (2) elections?

[MarkeyD]

Especially in Tennessee. Most polls sole purpose is to put out numbers which will hopefully demoralize the Republican base leading to a lower turnout.

[TNCMAXQ]

Bush's approval at 35% in a state he carried with 57% less than 2 years ago? Hard to believe. GWB's ratings are that low or better in states he lost. I'm not saying Corker is favored or Ford isn't a strong candidate. But these partisan polls oftenn are not accurate.

[Princip. Conservative]

Like in most races, the Tennessee polls have shown tremendous disparity with each other. I don't believe this poll and I think people need to realistically assess that Harold Ford's ethnicity will cost him some votes in the South and it most probably won't show up in opinion polls.

[Arizona Carolyn]

In light of our conversation about Corker/Ford on Sunday talk thread, what do you make of this latest poll?

[MarkeyD]

Yeah, could be that people will say Ford just so they won't be thought of as racist.

[Redmen4ever]

With regard to the Gallup Poll, which shows Corker up by 5 ...

Recent polls in TN show Corker up by 1 (Middle Tennessee), Ford up by 1 (Mason-Dixon), and Ford up by 5 (Rasmussen).

These polls can be reconciled with each other by assuming that, at this time, Ford is up by 2 or 3.

Corker should be able to overcome this deficit during the remaining month, but, the truth is, we shouldn't be sweatin' this one.

[Redmen4ever]

correction, the Gallup Poll shows Ford up by 5.

[jveritas]

We shall see.

[Redbob]

"TN voted a Dem governor."

Of course they did.
You DO remember the last Quote-GOP-Unquote governor of Tennessee, don't you?

He was almost enough to make Ronald Reagan vote Dimocrat!

[ClaireSolt]

I watched that debate and it should be the end of Ford.

[geo40xyz]

Lets see! Al Gore COULD NOT carry Tennessee but now a non-lawyer Ford CAN.... I don't think so

[depressed in 06]

Most Tennesseans believe that Bredesen is, at worst, a moderate.

[TC Rider]

I was in Boone, NC last weekend and all we could get was TV from eastern TN.

Quite an ad war was going on. Ford's commercials have got his skin so light looking you would think he is white.

What's up with that?

[Redmen4ever]

what's with Harold Ford's light skin ...

he's going Michael Jackson on us!!!

[Phsstpok]

I agree with the first couple of posters. I just don't buy it.

[Arizona Carolyn]

I'm beginning to think these polls could be a positive thing. If they showed the GOP ahead around the country then conservatives "might" indeed be tempted to just stay home. After the last two weeks I'm beginning to believe polls showing the dems in the lead may force those reluctant conservatives to go vote.