Hugh Hewitt: The High Water Mark for the 2006 Democrats Was A Week Ago

Townhall ^ | October 11, 2006 | Hugh Hewitt

[RWR8189]

It took 48 hours of loose nukes in the control of bad hair kooks to get the electorate refocused on the stakes in November's elections.  But even before North Korea reminded the electorate of the wonders of Clinton-Albright era diplomacy, even as "The Path to 9/11" and The Looming Tower had done, the Foley effect had begun to dissipate as the reality of the choice before the country broke through even the MSM's fascination with the destruction of the Republicans because of the notorious IMs.

Now Santorum in Pennsylvania, DeWine in Ohio, and Corker in Tennessee have showed strong momentum to match that of Allen's in Virginia.  Jim Talent will win in Missouri, and Democratic nominee McCaskill's remarkable ability to churn out gaffes might make it a breakaway.  Key Congressional candidates have the same momentum, as does Bob Beuprez in Colorado.  Arnold out west and Charles Crist in Florida are crushing their Democratic opponents and with them, Democratic enthusiasm in those states.

To this mix we add increasing focus on the hard left politics of the Nancy Pelosi/John Murtha appeasement Democrats, and the unexpected assists intentional and unintentional received from folks like David Zucker and Jimmy Carter, respectively.

The timely return to the lists of Jimmy C. --original enabler of the Ayatollah Khomeni and shrewd poker player with Kim Jung Il-- is a special treat for Republicans, even better than Bill Clinton's FNC reprise of his best finger wagging moment.  Dean has dealt with it, but I don't think even that fine post summarizes the impact of James Earl Carter on the nation's decision making when it comes to politics.  His election was birthed in reaction to political scandal of course, and we got what we paid for, the very disasters that haunt us to this day. 

And still there are other advantages at work for the GOP, both with the evangelical/conservative Catholic base, and in places like Montana and other individual-rights minded locales.

I shipped off my World Magazine column this morning on the absurdity of the idea of evangelicals and conservatives Catholics staying home in November or the even bigger horselaugh about a sudden defection.  I'll post the column when it comes out, but it begins with this observation:

Justice John Paul Steven is 86. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is 73. Justices Antonin Scalia and Anthony Kennedy are both 70. Justice Stephen Breyer is 68. Justice David Souter is 67.

 

Senators elected in November will be casting votes on replacements for how many of these six justices during their six year terms? It is in the realm of possibility that all six will retire in the next half-dozen years, and a near certainty that more than one will.

 

I think this reality will impact Montana's Senate race decisively as the issue of the future of the Supreme Court gets attention over the next four weeks.  The current court majority is anti-property rights and pro-terrorist rights; hostile to the unborn and gun-owners; confused on racial quotas and a host of other issues.  Jon Tester will join Patrick Leahy in obstructing nominees like Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito.  So would Sherrod Brown.  So would Harold Ford and Claire McCaskill. Robert Menendez already has, voting against New Jersey native son Alito.

 

And so would even Robert Casey, Jr., posing as a pro-life Democrat whose absurd position would be instantly revealed the moment he voted to organize the Senate under Harry Reid, with Leahy back as Chair of Judiciary.

 

The reality of the Dems anti-border security position has also registered.  There is a split among Republicans over the extent of the regularization to be offered those who entered the country illegally, but there is general agreement as shown by the fence vote that border security must come first. 

 

Every issue works for the public except Foley and, we are told, Iraq.

 

But I return to the point I made yesterday in this post on the killing in Iraq of an al Qaeda terrorist who had escaped prison in Afghanistan: Retreat in Iraq is retreat in the war with al Qaeda.

 

Dissatisfaction with the war doesn't mean that all or even a majority of the dissatisfied want to lose or retreat, and the appeasement Democrats are finding that out in Connecticut with the Lieberman pounding of Kosputin's man, Ned Lamont.

 

The world's dangers clarified the choice, but it would have worked its way to the front of voter consciousness in any event.  The acceleration of the process may in fact make uphill runs against Democratic Senate seats in Minnesota, Michigan and Washington State doable, and may yet surprise in some House districts written off as lost.

 

But a breezy week does not a hurricane make, and many eyebrows are beginning to be raised at numbers like Santorum's and Allen's. 

[100-Fold_Return]

Wow! Must-read for all actual Christian/Conservatives!! BTTT

[Rocko]

Bump for later.

[Christian4Bush]

Morning glory/evening grace BUMP

[skinkinthegrass]

thanks, for the post...HH is great. :D

[GeorgiaDawg32]

my take on it is slightly different..the foley mess reached it's zenith before chia hair decided to derail it with his folley..HOWEVER, I think it would have faded very quickly anyway with the aid of the dems..I think Pelosi et. al. decided NOT to push their luck with having to go under oath knowing the entire incident could have convincingly shown them to be intimately involved in holding the info, then releasing it at this time..the dems, more than anyone are responsible for this fast becoming a non-story..IMHO..

[AZ GOPher]

Hewitt is right, and he penned his column BEFORE the sad plane crash in NYC today, which will only remind voters what's REALY at stake in this election (hint: it's not about Foley). Even though the plane accident was probably not terrorism related, it will jar voters' collective consciousness nonetheless. Add onto it the N. Korea nukes situation and the Sandy Berger purloined documents story and you have the making of a GOP comeback from the dumps they were in a week ago.

Still time for more "October surprises," though. . .

[Sans-Culotte]

Morning glory/evening grace BUMP

Why does Hugh say that all the time? What does it mean? Is it funny?

[Right Wing Assault]

Hugh, an Ohioan, never mentioned the governor's race.

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

Why does Hugh say that all the time? What does it mean? Is it funny?

Hugh used to be on in the mornings. He had a regular caller who would say "Morning glory, Hugh!" Hugh then adopted that as his intro.

Then he moved the show to afternoon drive, and he had a contest with his listeners to come up with a suitable counterpart to "morning glory," and thus was born "evening grace."

[AZ GOPher]

The OH governor's race is probably lost. Let's be fair about it. Hugh is realistically sizing up the GOP's chances in key close races, not engaging in wild pipe dreaming. We'd all love a complete GOP result in OH, but based on the numbers to date, that's not likely to happen. If DeWine survives, it'll be victory enough in the current political climate.

BTW, I love the GOP's publicized "firewall" strategy in the MO, OH and TN Senate races. While it leaves PA, MT and RI and other states) behind, it's focus on very winnable seats is admirable -- and smart. Too diffuse an approach might lead to losses across the board.

[Welike ike]

AZ: Hugh, Rush, and Hannity have all stayed on the ship while the Quislings such as Kudlow, Blankley and Ingraham went AWOL before the battle began.

We should all remember that on 11/08

[Cousin Eddie]

only problem is that Hugh is terrible at predicting elections. On the eve of the 2000 election, he was on PBS in L.A. predicting that Bush would comfortably win California. Result? Bush got trounced and it had nothing to do with the early CBS miscall of Florida. He's had many other overly optimistic predictions over the years.

[Welike ike]

AZ. also recall that Burns and Santorum have their own war chests, so they are not being thrown overboard. Rick has over 25 million alone

[Welike ike]

As had Charlie Cook( Speaker Gephardt?), Sabato/Zogby(Prez Kerry). Novak and others etc.. have all blown races nad trends

[Signalman]

Hugh is generally an optimist concerning the elections. He was right on the money back in 2004 when many of his callers were down in the dumps about W's chances against Kerrey, and he was telling them do disregard the public polls. He had internal polling data that showed Bush was going to win.

[Kuksool]

Burns and Santorum have lots of campaign cash left. If 12+ years of incumbency can't protect them at this stage, well it was nice knowing them. I only wish Kean would be included in the firewall. It would be a slip in the face of the RATS "Culture of Corruption" MO.

[genghis]

hewitt is just amazing.
Every second of every day he thinks what can be done to move the ball to the right. He does so much good, he could be called mr. republican

[LS]

Agreed. In fact, I'll go furtner, based on how well Steele and Kean are running right now:

The Dems released the Foley stuff because they sensed not just a defeat but a STUNNING defeat, losing perhaps 3 seats in the Senate and 5 seats in the House, if they didn't do something to break the momentum.

I think Foley bought them a week, but at the cost of being able to break open the Foley stuff 10 days out of the election. If I'm right, look for GOP momentum to continue to increase, and some of these "vulnerable" guys like Santorum and Chafee and Burns will move into the close, but win, column.

[LS]

Word from the ground here in OH: the governor's race is anything but "lost." Ken is about 5% behind. Incredible ground game---over 150,000 lit drops in less than a week.

He will win.