Posted on 10/11/2006 7:03:38 PM PDT by Flavius
All of you nuke-happy FReepers need to step away from the X-box and let the real military strategists handle this.
I've been waiting for somebody to look at that aspect of it. Particularly their army.
The people of NK have been literally starving to death under this regime. Their economy has completely collapsed. They barely subsist on charity from other countries. And now, even that is starting to dwindle.
Once the fit hit the shan, I wonder how much fight the NK army would actually have in them.
Let us assume the NKs attack across the DMZ. US would immediately send more forces into SK. Where would another 50,000 troops come from? How many of our Naval forces are within useful distance for attacks on NK?
"Oh look at that cutsey-wutsey bomb!" NOT. People in SK will still feel the aftereffects.
well some here will tell you we can nuke them and not get a single scratch, though being wrong would sure suck for seoul and maybe some major japanese urban areas and/or US bases.
If the NKs just put signs at the DMZ saying, "Food, 30 miles south!" we would see a massive stampede.
North Korea could accomplish the major part of the destruction of Seoul within three to four hours. That is even considering counter battery fire and aerial suppression. The destruction of Seoul is tantamount to the detruction of South Korea's economy.
Toss in an attack by the ground forces to add to the confusion (and the target list) and you have a real mess.
Think of this as Japan versus US in WWII. The North cannot ultimately accomplish it's goals militarily. What it can do is inflict a surprise attack destroy the American Imperialist puppets and negotiate an end because America doesn't seem to have the stomach for a hard fight.
You said -- "How ridiculous. Just nuke the bastards and be done with it."
You probably missed it, but Condoleeza Rice *promised* that the U.S. would not attack North Korea. It's an absolute promise, according to what I read...
Before trying standup you need to know that China ALREADY is flooded with illegal aliens from NK. It is not laughing.
"There is a problem, because Seoul with its large civilian population is so close to the DMZ. It would be a nasty war, IMHO. "
I am surprised by comments here which completely discount the likely devastation of seoul and northern ROK as almost a given from what I understand about the almost pathological preparations by DPRK over the years.
That is the point. Even if we prestaged in the region we would not exceed the number you propose. The decision would need to be made, "Do we have the will to win this war?" I have no doubt our military could win this war in time, but the American public allows a 6 month window to acquire military victory and assert political serenity. This could not happen. Our country is made up of 150,000,000 John Kerry, John Murtha, sympathizers, many of those in the MSM. Our biggest battle would be on U.S. soil in the battle for allegence to the flag by the left, and they have repeatedly clued us in on where they stand on loyalty, allegance, honor, and duty to this country.
When you are the kind of soldier who plans for war and never things about waging it, the worse case senario seems to win out. Kinda like writing fiction.
These numbers are based on conventional warfare. Kim says he is nuclear so he just put the genie on the playing field. We will not attack him. If we can get an effective sanctions program (that means China and Russia on board) as his regime collapses there is a high probability he could attack South Korea.
We would be fools to play by his rules of conventional warfare. Take the invading troops out with battle field nukes and the infrastructure that supports their army. Also small yield (not city busters) nukes on all suspected nuclear development and or storage sites in the North.
I do not think any president, even a democrat president, would stand by and see 50,000 US troops killed and perhaps a million or more South Koreans. We would launch!
If we have command of the air, their tanks will be stacked up, more or less like what would have happened if the Reds had actually come through Fulda Gap.
I don't believe they have the logistic capability to send a million men anywhere. And any such buildup would be detected immediately. While I do not deny that NK would try it I don't think they would be able to do anything but destroy a lot of shit and kill a lot of people. They have no chance of winning or holding ground.
if there is a conflict I think we would nail the country with nukes from our subs. No way does it go on for 90 days
I do not believe tac nukes are required to attack the north for two reasons:
1. As soon as North Korea launches an artillery shell, it betrays the exact (and I do mean exact) coordinates of the launch position. And the NKs big cannons are not mobile, like SCUD missiles.
2. JDAMS love exact coordinates. So does our artillery.
I don't believe NK will have nuclear capable artillery shells for some time. Unfortunately, they no doubt have plenty of nasty chemical shells.
They will have to make their first volley a good one. Because that is all they will get.
The SCUDs are a much more dangerous threat. NK would be better off using an Iraq SCUD strategy (shoot and scoot) rather than artillery (shoot and die). Artillery is obsolete as a multiple use weapon against the U.S. Just ask the Iraqis on the Kuwait border who were stupid enough to fire on us.
The war would involve huge numbers of casualties, I agree. Unless we used nuclear weapons at the start, which would be politically difficult, Seoul would certainly be hit. And I'm not one of those who are comfortable with the thought of millions of enemy civilian casualties.
The question, of course, is whether even larger casualties, including casualties right here in America, might not inevitably result if North Korea starts shipping nuclear weapons to rogue nations and groups around the world.
Okay. I don't pretend to be a four star, but what would you do?
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