As New York Goes, So Goes the Nation? (LOL)

The Washington Post ^ | Octotber 13, 2006 | E. J. Dionne

[PolishProud]

The Empire Strikes Back

NEW YORK - What is happening to the Republican Party in New York state is the national GOP's nightmare. The once thriving political organization of Nelson Rockefeller, Al D'Amato and George Pataki is in shambles.

And the way the Republican coalition has broken up should have national Republicans scurrying for a new game plan.

For many Americans, "New York'' evokes the liberal salons of Manhattan. But Manhattan is a small piece of the Empire State. Political change has been driven by the populous suburbs of Long Island and Westchester and Rockland Counties, and in the vast stretches of upstate New York that are far closer in spirit to the Midwest than the Upper West Side or the Silk Stocking District.

The Republican collapse here has been driven by two streams of defectors: suburban moderates and upstaters.

As a result, the entire Democratic ticket, led by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Eliot Spitzer, the party's candidate for governor, is expected by just about everyone to sweep the state. As many as five upstate Republican congressional seats -- they would constitute a third of the 15 seats that Democrats need to win the House -- are in jeopardy.

[PolishProud]

E. J. what are you smokin? Your thesis that New York indicates the country's political direction is pure crap. New York was already trending Democrat when it voted for Hillary NY is already in the Democrat's pocket.

Polls that include the hinterland indicate that Hillary would not win the 2008 presidential election. Dah!

So how do you write your opeds? First you come up with a conclusion and then reach for supporting assertions?

So your message is, *stay home Republicans, the Democrats have already won. We don't need no "stinkng election."

* Democrate talking point # 7

[Republican Red]

I got as far as "written by E. J. Dionne". Stopped reading after that. Waste of time.

[Plain Old American]

Vote by mail

[pnh102]

New York was already trending Democrat when it voted for Hillary

It sure doesn't say much about the people of a state to vote for someone who has never lived there. Even people in Illinois were not that dumb. However, I suppose I should be thanking NY for "taking one for the team" and keeping Billary out of the rest of our hair.

[An Old Marine]

THe author has a point that NY is increasingly Democrat. It is. That's because Republicans are sick of the highest taxes in the nation and a persistant anti-business climate. Democrats will win NY but increasingly marginalize themsleves nationally.

It'll be interesting to see who will pay for New York's bloated welfare state once Spitzer completes his drive to run the financial industry out of New York City.

[kittymyrib]

LOL...EJ, you delusional twit, do you think any other state in the US would have elected Hillary! as their carpet-bagger senator? New York is not America.

[pnh102]

It'll be interesting to see who will pay for New York's bloated welfare state once Spitzer completes his drive to run the financial industry out of New York City.

I can see the headline now... BUSH TO NY: DROP DEAD!

[Kaslin]

The lunatics are dreaming

[johnny7]

It's a wonder E.J. could find time to write... while playing pivotman in boardroom circle-jerks at the DNC.

[Alberta's Child]

For all of his bluster about New York's role in national politics, Mr. Dionne might consider this . . .

There hasn't been a candidate from New York on a winning national ticket since FDR was re-elected for the last time in 1944 even as he was damn near dead and buried. Since that time, we have had candidates from the following states serve as president and/or vice president:

Arkansas (Clinton)
California (Reagan, Nixon)
Georgia (Carter)
Indiana (Quayle)
Kentucky (Barkley)
Maryland (Agnew)
Massachusetts (Kennedy)
Minnesota (Humphrey, Mondale)
Missouri (Truman)
Tennessee (Gore)
Texas (Eisenhower, Johnson, Bush 41, Bush 43)
Wyoming (Cheney)

[Alberta's Child]

It's also worth noting that New York is the only place in the U.S. where people like Nelson Rockefeller, George Pataki, Rudy Giuliani, etc. would ever be considered Republicans.

The truth is, New York has been a Democratic state for years. Sometimes it elects Democrats who are honest about their party affiliation, and sometimes it elects Democrats who insist on hiding behind the Republican Party label.

[mewzilla]

And the way the Republican coalition has broken up should have national Republicans scurrying for a new game plan.

Most of NYS is made up of red counties.

So I have a plan: Upstate needs its own state.

[riverdawg]

"The Republican collapse here has been driven by two streams of defectors: suburban moderates and upstaters."

Yes, these two groups have indeed "defected," largely to Red states like Georgia. Upstate New York is rapidly de-populating as a result of the high taxes and anti-business climate mentioned by An Old Marine in post #5.

[NYFriend]

The article is suggesting that the trends that have turned NY from having a big Republican following outside of NYC are being played out nationally as well.

Taxes are a big part of if. Spending drives taxes. Our federal government is also spending more money than ever before. Someone's going to have to pay for that spending. Since it's been deficit spending lately, that means I'm going to be paying for in ten or twenty years, but someone's got to pay. Plus, since you can't cut spending once every citizen has some stake in government spending, you're paying the inflated current cost of government, in addition to servicing the debt left from the deficit spending you had at the beginning. New York State may not have invented this model, but it happened hear earlier than on the national scene.

The second part of the equation is the social stuff. Do Republican's want people to decide how to live their life (like John Stuart Mill wrote) or do they want to force people to live according to a conservative belief structure? Texas banned gay sex. The Supreme Court over turned it. Where do Republicans stand. You can be conservative and say, "that's not me, I don't even think anyone should being doing it, but I'm not going to let the government into anyone's bedroom". Nationally, there's a split, and that's the kind of thing that's turned off some moderate Republicans in NY who are personally comfortable with gay rights, abortions, and other "liberal"issues. It also turns off "classical liberals" who don't want the government interfering in their private affairs. Those are the people who see bans on things(including smoking and trans-fat), or see the nonsense at the airports, background screenings when you open a bank account, and national security wiretaps on US citizens and say, "I don't want a government that can get that involved in my life".

Finally, people in a lot of Republican strongholds in New York have become soft. Their parents worked real hard to build a good life for them. They've know physical and financial security their whole life, and don't understand that those things have to be paid for with money, effort, or both. They think someone can promise them safety, security, and comfort for free. That's what the Democrats offer them, and they buy it. Does anyone not think that's happening nationally?

This is what happened to

[An Old Marine]

I disagree. And here's why. NY is largely democratic these days because the Republicans are leaving not because of social demands or spending.

Are you actually saying that Democrats will spend less? Are you saying that Democrats are less intrusive?

Republicans leave because NY is hostile to business and is taxed as high as some European countries. The density of Democrats is not because of party converted Republicans but rather their migration to other places. NY is losing population and no one starts a business or moves one here.

You will live to see Florida, North Carolina, Virgina and perhaps Georgia surpass NY in population. 20 years from now New York will be a mid-sized democrat state with a declingin population and a sliding economic base.

[Ditter]

But... but... everyone knows NY is the center of the universe. *snort*

[oceanview]

the sliding economic base is only upstate. NYC metro is booming.

the demographics here, as in other states, favor the Dems:

- a very large base of government workers, teachers, etc - they turn out to vote Dem, to protect their salaries and pensions.
- wealthy liberal elites who work in financial services, media companies, etc
- large minority voting blocks

plenty of people move to the NYC metro area - too many want to come in fact. its upstate NY that is a ghost town.