I'm the guy who did this poll and wrote the text reproduced in the above post. The "likely voter model" did not change. It was exactly the same model as we used in the previous poll. We do not "weight to party", we rely on self-described party affiliation (NOT registration), and we saw that more people were identifying themselves as Democrats and fewer as Republicans. It's not a "model", or something we put in to the data -- it's what we observed while using the exact same methodology as before.
Not good news for the GOP I'm afraid, but there's still plenty of time for things to change.
Ans what was your participation rate for the poll(i.e how many phone calls did yu have to make to get 1 response) and what were the actual dates of the poll.
Thanks for posting here. Is the release of the Hayworth and Bilbray polls imminent or do we wait until tomorrow?
That usually happens on weekend polls.
IE: that Republicans are not reached or refuse to respond (especially with automated polls).
I am impressed with your credentials. Way to go!
Hmmm, that's actually what I meant - the demographic support for each candidate remained the same in the two polls. It was the composition of likely voters that changed. Not really surprising, given all the gloomy and bad news being reported. The Republican base is depressed.
I believe that you believe that what you do is a "science".
And I believe that you are serious about your work.
But let me tell you what happened to me the other day.
Honest to God's truth.
A pollster calls me on the phone and says,
"Are you pleased or displeased with the job President Bush is doing?"
I said,
"Well, that is a pretty complex question to answer with a simple 'yes' or 'no'."
He said, "Thank you", and hung up the phone.
Now you tell me.
Were his results valid at the end of the day?
The funny thing is that this has been the battle cry for almost a year now. Nothing much has changed.
Judging by the Excel spreadsheets at the SurveyUSA website, you do damn good work. Thanks for that analysis. Now I've got something to judge other polls by.
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