Mass Vaccination Unnecessary In The Event Of A Large Bioterrorist US Smallpox Attack

Space War ^ | October 17 | Staff

[PghBaldy]

Mass vaccination would not be necessary in the event of a large-scale smallpox bioterrorist attack in the United States, according to a study led by researchers at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center that appears online in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases. Instead, the current U.S. government policy of post-release surveillance, prompt containment of victims and vaccination of hospital workers and close contacts would be sufficient to thwart an epidemic, according to lead author Ira M. Longini Jr., Ph.D., a world leader in using mathematical and statistical methods to study the natural course of infectious diseases.

"We found that a well-prepared response of surveillance and containment, if done quickly, within a day or two of detecting the first smallpox case, would contain a large attack if up to 500 people were infected," said Longini, a member of the Public Health Sciences Division at the Hutchinson Center and a professor of biostatistics at the University of Washington School of Public Health and Community Medicine. These results apply to scenarios involving even the most virulent, fatal forms of the virus.

[PghBaldy]

They have interesting links sometimes. The name sounds goofy, but so far, I have not been disappointed with them (I'm a lifelong civilian...)

[Jim Noble]

I was a participant in mass smallpox vaccination planning in 2002, and I'm very familiar with the various wargame scenarios, particularly Dark Winter.

My assessment is that the public health authorities in this nation are unable and unwilling to be thrust into the role of national law enforcement leadership which would be required to make screen and contain work.

For this to work, you have to be able to cordon off exposure sites (likely hospitals, at least to start), and have men with guns ready to shoot down civilians, including children. You also need leaders who will give the order.

This can and will happen, but not until generation 3 of cases, after which it will be too late.

Mass vaccination is a clearly superior strategy, ASSUMING that there is viable variola virus on the planet.

If we assume that to be true (I'm agnostic), vaccination should have started 4 years ago.

[PghBaldy]

Very good points. I also thought of something: the difficulty in getting certain groups to listen to the US govt on health issues, and the beliefs among some that the feds created AIDS etc to kill blacks. These extreme beliefs would be a severe threat. I also question the "loyal opposition" (if it's Dems) during an outbreak. When more than ever the people would have to listen and follow the feds, I picture the Dems and the MSM acting like they did during Katrina... I agree with the thrust of your argument:

[Jim Noble]

I was in a meeting (of professionals with advanced degrees, all of whom had areas of responsibility re: smallpox containment).

The speaker introduced the concept of "Incident Command", and then said, to applause, "I know a lot of you have trouble with 'command'".

This was followed by a snide comment about Bush making up things - from somebody who works for the Executive Branch.

If this ever goes down (and I have my doubts that viable virus exists), we are in deep doo-doo.

[PghBaldy]

Supposedly, only the US and the USSR officially had it after it was eradicated. The thing about viruses, is I have heard some scientists say they aren't even sure if they are "alive," at least as the word is commonly understood. I must say I worry more about bio than other WMD, in terms of existential threats. I am also concerned about all of the seemingly well-educated people who are afraid of vaccinations. I have a friend who's a pediatrician, and he's told me he constantly gets parents expressing fears of them - and he works in a very upscale area. These aren't stupid people.