Posted on 10/18/2006 12:58:34 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
The fear of Republicans and desire of Democrats is that what now shapes up as a close contest for both the House and Senate will turn into a Democratic runaway. In the 38 years that this publication has been analyzing political contests, we have seen that phenomenon in presidential contests but not in congressional races. It could happen here, however, if disgruntled conservatives stay home.
(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...
Overview: The recent approval of military tribunal legislation, port security, and border security are now empty events that lack the punch so badly needed for a GOP fourth quarter comeback. Everything has been sucked down by the Foley affair.
With hopes of the late comeback faded, the Republican strategy has changed from that of a quarterback on a fourth-quarter come-from-behind mission to that of an overwhelmed emergency medical technician performing triage on several dying patients. The only thought now is to minimize losses by plugging whatever holes can be plugged. Late decisions have to be made about who lives and who dies. The GOP has to decide where it can win, and it cannot afford to waste time or resources on those who cannot be saved. At this point, the best indication of how races are going is where the money is being spent.
If the election were held today, Democrats would gain control of the House of Representatives. Republicans -20, Democrats +20
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Republican-Held House Seats In Play |
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Likely Republican Retention |
Tossup |
Likely Democratic Takeover |
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Leans GOP |
Leans Dem |
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AZ-1 (Renzi) |
CO-4 (Musgrave) |
CT-2 (Simmons) |
AZ-8 (Open [Kolbe]) |
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AZ-5 (Hayworth) |
CT-5 (Johnson) |
CT-4 (Shays) |
CO-7 (Open [Beauprez]) |
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CA-11 (Pombo) |
FL-13 (Open [Harris]) |
FL-16 (Open [Foley]) |
IA-1 (Open [Nussle]) |
|
CO-5 (Open [Hefley]) |
IL-6 (Open [Hyde]) |
FL-22 (Shaw) |
IN-2 (Chocola) |
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FL-8 (Keller) |
KY-3 (Northup) |
IN-9 (Sodrel) |
IN-8 (Hostettler) |
|
NV-3 (Porter) |
MN-6 (Open [Kennedy]) |
KY-4 (Davis) |
NC-11 (Taylor) |
|
NY-20 (Sweeney) |
NV-2 (Open [Gibbons]) |
NM-1 (Wilson) |
NY-26 (Reynolds) |
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TX-23 (Bonilla) |
NY-24 (Open [Boehlert]) |
OH-15 (Pryce) |
PA-7 (Weldon) |
|
WY-AL (Cubin) |
OH-1 (Chabot) |
OH-18 (Open [Ney]) |
PA-10 (Sherwood) |
|
|
OH-2 (Schmidt) |
PA-6 (Gerlach) |
TX-22 (Open [DeLay]) |
|
|
PA-8 (Fitzpatrick) |
|
|
|
|
VA-2 (Drake) |
|
|
|
|
WA-8 (Reichert) |
|
|
|
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WI-8 (Open [Green]) |
|
|
|
Democrat-Held House Seats In Play |
|||
|
Likely Democratic Retention |
Tossup
|
Likely Republican Takeover |
|
|
Leans Dem |
Leans GOP |
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|
IL-17 (Open [Evans]) |
GA-8 (Marshall) |
|
|
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LA-3 (Melancon) |
GA-12 (Barrow) |
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|
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OH-6 (Open [Strickland]) |
IA-3 (Boswell) |
|
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OH-13 (Open [Brown]) |
IL-8 (Bean) |
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PA-12 (Murtha) |
TX-17 (Edwards) |
|
|
|
SC-5 (Spratt) |
VT-AL (Open [Sanders]) |
|
|
|
WV-1 (Mollohan) |
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I do post this to ENCOURAGE people to WORK for the candidates...I've given in the past week to Jim Talent and Rick Santorum, though I don't live in their states.
I'm SIGNING UP for the push to GET OUT THE VOTE!
I will be PRAYING for our President and his party every day.
WE ALL CAN DO SOMETHING!
Please do what YOU can do...let's not let the socialists take over the legislature!!
BTW, I will trust Karl Rove over Novsk.
See my replies. 1 and 3. :)
The only people encouraging these "gains" are conservative pundits who want to stick it to the GOP with the "win by losing" strategy.
Daughter, two-year-old granddaughter and I are going out once again later today to distribute more campaign literature. I urge everyone to PRAY, write letters to the editor, post yard signs, and VOTE. AMERICA is worth fighting for!
Also, this line basically voids this whole analysis for me.
Everything has been sucked down by the Foley affair.
If Novak thinks Foley has affected anyone's vote, he is a bigger idiot that he makes himself out to be.
Your post makes me SMILE!
"BTW, I will trust Karl Rove over Novak"
Absentee ballot push undergoing. Big win for Repubs there.
Democratic failures will hail Rove a "genius" for "getting out the vote"
I have signed up and voluntered. I suggest that we all do the same to ensure victory in November.
Taxman Bravo Zulu!
What a great pic this was. Thanks for bringing it back.
I really makes me feel good when I see dems in agony. and should i start to feel bad, i simply look at my collection of depressed DumbocRats and it picks me right up. Kinda like a strawberry ice cream on a hot summer day :)
The really sad thing is that, in the end, we have found out that Foley didn't even do anything all that bad. IF you read his IM messages, they are crude, but they were a willing exchange of crudity between two consenting adults.
It's creepy to make friends with 16-year-olds trolling for future gay partners, but he did wait until they turned 18 before he approached them for anything sexual.
And in fact the only REPORT of him having any actual sexual encounter was with a 21-year-old former page, who had been out of the program 4 years and could in no way be said to have been under the "influence of power" at that point.
Foley didn't really abuse his position, he doesn't seem to have forced himself on ANYBODY who didn't reciprocate, he did make some people uncomfortable but pretty much all gay men who make overtures looking for gays make heterosexuals uncomfortable.
I'm not excusing him, morally he was a sleaze to do this but I'm against homosexual acts on principle and against 50-year-olds being with 18-year-olds and against sex outside of marriage.
But in the real world (like if he was a good liberal actor), this wouldn't even be a story, much less any kind of "scandal". Ney was a scandal. Cunningham was a scandal. Reid is looking like a pretty good scandal.
But Foley wasn't a scandal.
What he did was gross. He did have those crude messages, though, with FORMER pages, didn't he?? Or am I wrong?
For those of you who are considering voting Denicrat on November 7th, please go here: http://www.cpusa.org/
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