Posted on 10/19/2006 9:27:34 PM PDT by AmericanExceptionalist
The first stop on Condoleezza Rice's post-detonation, nuclear reassurance tour was Tokyo. There she dutifully unfurled the American nuclear umbrella, pledging in person that the United States would meet any North Korean attack on Japan with massive American retaliation, nuclear if necessary.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
"Allow 'em, hell! Give 'em to them - and the Taiwanese, too."
Sounds reasonable to me. However, we could just give them the designs. They have all the expertise and fissionable material to do the rest.
I don't get you. I'm not worried Japan will use their nukes. I'm saying Japan doesn't need nukes, and a nuclear armed Japan will scare the bejesus out of America's allies in the region. A scared S. Korea will move closer into the orbit of China, which hurts US interests.
South Korea and China already have nukes.
South Korea has nukes? That's news to me. China has nukes, but South Korea doesn't perceive China to be a threat. South Korea does, however, feel threatened by Japan. You and I may disagree with their view, but it's a fact.
Hate to break this to you, pal, but we did equip the Bundeswehr with nukes back in the day. It was a "dual-key" arrangement, in which a US officer held a virtual "veto" over whether or not the nukes would be used (based on a decision by the National Command Authority). In this case, it's a moot point, since Mr. Abe says that the Japanese don't want any nukes, just missile defense.
Which is a bunch of left winged BS anyway. China is a bigger threat to South Korea than Japan could ever hope to be.
That's not the same thing as having an autonomous Japanese nuclear program, which is basically what Krauthammer and some of the posters here want. The Germany veto setup is not too different from a nuclear umbrella, just merely localized.
Dunno. But it is safe to assume that North Korea will always be an enemy--at least, as long as "Dear Leader" reigns supreme. And the enemy of my enemy...well, you know the rest.
NK does what it does because the Chicoms let them. Don't buy this crap that they're upset about the North's behavior. They gave them the green light to go for it. A nuclear Japan will force the Chinese to reign in their attack dog because while we may promise we will retaliate for a nuclear attack on Japan, a Japan with nukes will without a doubt retaliate.
We agree.
We wouldn't have to give nukes to them. The South Koreans, Japanese and Taiwanese are quite capable of making them in short order. Probably weeks rather than months.
That may well be true. But they're not the only ones who fear a nuclear Japan, and all the other regional powers will look to Beijing -- not Washington -- to ensure regional security in the face of what they will perceive to be Japanese aggression. That's, imho, a grave geopolitical mistake.
Additionally, a nuclear armed Japan will legitimize everything the DPRK is saying -- that their nukes are purely defensive, and make it impossible for the US to build the kind of international resolve necessary to enforce an effective embargo of the DPRK. The US needs Kim Jong Il to remain the bad guy -- how he's currently viewed. If Japan builds nukes, the children and grandchildren of victims of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere will start seeing Japan as the bigger threat.
Maybe, to some extent. But I don't see how a nuclear DPRK helps China.
A nuclear Japan will force the Chinese to reign in their attack dog because while we may promise we will retaliate for a nuclear attack on Japan, a Japan with nukes will without a doubt retaliate.
Maybe yes, maybe no. But is it worth losing influence over South Korea, Indonesia, the Philipines and even Taiwan? Why not just restate the US' committment to providing a nuclear umbrella for Japan?
Yet the South Koreans apparently don't consider North Korea's nuclear detonations "a declaration of war"--not to mention the gazillions of conventional arms aimed at Seoul.
Some people might think the totalitarians are just more serious about this deadly game than the West is.
Umm...If nukes weren't a deterrent, why would NK, Iran (okay, Iran might actually want to use them), and a slew of tin pot dictatorships want to procure them, even in small amounts? You're right that Red China would think of that as a declaration of war, but it definitely serves a purpose. The Chicoms are pretty fervent about taking Taiwan, but having the possibility of a radioactive Beijing, Shanghai, or any big city is certainly going to influence whether they try and take the island by force.
What you say is certainly true, but the problem is that Taiwan doesn't have the means of delivering a nuke to Shanghai or Beijing. Taiwan is in the south, it only has missile capabilities of reaching Fujian province, which is mostly rural.
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