Christopher Preble: Japan's next move

Dallas Morning News ^ | October 22, 2006 | Christopher Preble

[Ready4Freddy]

North Korea's announcement that it had successfully tested a nuclear device has renewed concerns that other countries in the region will follow suit. These are not idle concerns. Given Japan's existing nuclear power program, and its advanced technical and industrial base, it could likely develop nuclear weapons in a matter of months.

But it is far from certain that Japan will go that route, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was quick to dampen speculation about an ensuing arms race. "Possession of nuclear arms is not an option at all for our country," Mr. Abe said after the North Korean test.

If Mr. Abe – or a successor – reneges on this pledge, however, and Japan decides to develop its own nuclear deterrent, it will be only the last in a series of steps in which the Japanese have enhanced their defensive posture. This rearmament has been driven primarily by fears of North Korea. While China and South Korea worry about the ramifications of a collapse of Mr. Kim's regime, they are even more fearful of a nuclear-armed Japan. Accordingly, the best way to forestall such an eventuality is to cooperate with Tokyo in eliminating the North Korean threat.

Since at least the early 1990s, the United States has attempted to prevent North Korea from developing offensive military capabilities, including both nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles that could some day deliver them. The North Korean nuclear test is merely the latest in a string of embarrassing incidents revealing the utter failure of U.S. policy. Simply put, the Japanese don't trust the United States to defend their country from North Korea.

These sentiments have been building for some time. In March of last year, an editorial in the Asahi Shimbun worried that the Bush administration...

[Ready4Freddy]

"does not seem in any hurry to strike a bargain as long as Pyongyang does not export nuclear arms to a third party or pose a direct threat to the United States itself."

Christopher Preble is director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute and the author of the Cato policy analysis "Two Normal Countries: Rethinking the U.S.-Japan Strategic Relationship." His e-mail address is cpreble@cato.org.

[Ready4Freddy]

ping

[arthurus]

when an impoverished and increasingly desperate North Korea might be tempted to sell nuclear materials to terrorists.

Tempted? Isn't this pretty much a given? A major component of their nuclear armw program is sales to the highest bidder. They have to do things like that if we actually put a crimp in their profitible drug trade and printing trade ($100 dollar bills).

[Ready4Freddy]

Hmm, what was #4 about, I missed it!?

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Guess: probably something racist.

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Japan ping.

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

The South Koreans seem more and more antiAmerican:

.

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

The South Koreans seem more and more antiAmerican:

< align = center; a href = http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6075002.stm> BBC link about North Korea .

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

BBC link about North Korea .

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Apparently the reason was for spam posting.

[Ready4Freddy]

Thanks for the link, Jedi. Oh, I don't know, I suspect that there's always an undercurrent of anti-American sentiment at all times, how could there not be? The folks who are demonstrating are the ones who think that Kim & the DPRK will play nice if only the mean old USA will quit bullying North Korea.

Kinda like the folks in the ME who think that the palestinians are "only reacting to Israel's 'trangressions'".