"Serious provocation" is North Korea's way of saying "don't make me do something I don't want to do".
That's all well and good, but no one is buying it. North Korea is trying to instill fear and confusion. The problem for them is that it's getting harder to convince people that they're serious. It's one thing to have a big, heavily armed lunatic next door. It's another to have a big, heavily armed coward.
So far, North Korea is all bark and no bite. They're not going to bite, of course, because they wouldn't survive the response. While that makes sense, the fact that North Korea is in fact rational takes away from their 'crazy threat that must be appeased' routine.
So, let North Korea bark. Even if there is some border incident, so what? There have been border incidents for decades. If North Korea makes anything out of it, they won't gain any international support or sympathy. The rest of the world is a little more sophisticated, and needs their political lies to be a little less transparent.
As a chess metaphor, North Korea (the king) is constantly in check, and they can't break out without losing the queen (Kim Jong Il). They are, as yet, completely unwilling to make that trade. Their bellicose threats are losing their impact, precisely because of this reality.
I like the chess analogy. Very interesting.
tree bark bump!
Hmm... Chia Head as a queen? He would be offended. To him, he is more like 10 kings rolled up into one piece.