Posted on 10/27/2006 7:19:47 PM PDT by Degaston
Great work! I have 2 questions:
1) Will this thread stay around and grow until Nov. 7th?
2) Is anybody working on their VICTORY email sig yet for Nov. 8th?
Rovian Storm pretty much marks 16-17 of my 20 hottest "tossup" ones as going to the GOP based on his notes. I'm guessing he'd give 15 of 20 instead of 11 of 20 and 22 of 28 instead of 20 of 28 to the Republicans. If his analysis is right then the Republicans will win approx. 226-227 seats compared to 208-209 for the Democrats.
My guess is that we'll see about 8-14 of the hottest 20 going to the GOP and it'll all depend on turnout. That means we'll see the Republicans win somewhere around 216-221 seats. The margin will be pretty tight IMHO.
I say we lose 5, 7, 9, 15, 17 and 20 and hold the House by one seat -- barring any defections.
AZ-08 - I don't see Graf pulling this out either unfortunately.
CO-07 - I gotta call BS on the polls on this one. Looking at the internals, they are suspicious.
FL-16 - I don't think this seat is really in danger. It's Florida, and we just won the fight to have signs up. Not that we needed them. Dem voters need signs...
IA-01 - Just read polling on this one too. Not buying it again. Call me a delusional fool if you must...
IN-07 - poll numbers are all messed up here too. Just so happens they look better for us, but still...
IN-08 - Don't know here...I could get a better pic if someone from Indiana who's on the ground and working doors/houses/phones would let us know what the ground game is like or was like in 04 for us. That would answer a lot on these.
NM-01 -- Wilson's got like a 2-1 money advantage. I don't see this seat being lost.
OH-18 -- I see a big upset going on in Ohio. I see lots of large races polling in a crazy manner compared to what I hear from people on the ground. If the numbers match up, Space is not very far ahead, if at all. GOTV can bring this home.
TX-22 -- Thanks, Tom. Glad we knew ye...
You have Jim Walsh (Rep.) from Upstate NY listed as one of your close races...as a person who knows a LOT about this District, I can tell you that if Walsh loses, we are 100% sure to lose the House. People will be VERY surprised when Walsh wins this race with at least 58-60% of the vote. I grew up in this area, and I used to be part of Walsh's staff back in the late 80's when he was first elected. Walsh always wins by bigger margins than any of the "Independent" polling firms predict...his internal polling is done by a guy named Jeff Stonecash...Walsh will keep this seat. But if he DOES lose, turn off your TV because we are TOAST...
It's precisely for insights from people like MarkDel of upstate NY on Walsh's race that I posted this thread. Thank you!!
In today's analysis I'm giving each side 197 seats with the caveat that a large swing the Democrats' way will push another 24 specific Republican seats into danger territory. This leaves us 41 seats with the side winning at least 21 being the side that will win control of the U.S. House in the next Congress.
Here are the 41 seats to watch:
AZ-05
AZ-08
CO-07
CT-02
CT-04
CT-05
FL-13
FL-16
FL-22
GA-08
GA-12
IA-01
IA-03
IL-06
IL-08
IN-02
IN-07
IN-08
IN-09
KY-03
KY-04
MN-06
NC-08
NC-11
NM-01
NV-02
NY-20
NY-24
NY-26
OH-02
OH-15
OH-18
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
TX-22
VA-02
VT-AL
WA-08
WI-08
Here are 24 additional Republican seats to keep your eyes on. They could become very vulnerable if the pendulum were to swing in the Democrats' direction the next 9 days.
AZ-01
CA-04
CA-11
CA-50
CO-04
CO-05
ID-01
IL-10
IN-03
KY-02
MN-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NV-03
NY-03
NY-19
NY-25
NY-29
OH-01
PA-04
TX-23
VA-10
WA-05
WY-AL
The remaining 370 seats may have a surprise or two before the election is over. But they're most likely to stay the same and go 197 for the Democrats and 173 for the Republicans.
Degaston,
Your overall analysis looks pretty darn good. Thanks for your kind words. I actually no longer live in Walsh's district, but I maintain VERY good contacts there. I actually now live in Forsyth County Georgia which is one of the "reddest" counties in the nation. But I have talked to some of my old friends "in the know" in Walsh's district and they are generally not all that worried. Don't get me wrong, there is a little creeping doubt because you begin to believe the negativity coming out of the media, but the Walsh people are pretty darn confident at this stage.
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