US House Hot Races

1 posted on 10/27/2006 7:19:47 PM PDT by Degaston

2 posted on 10/27/2006 7:21:28 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar

don't run away from us on the other thread! :o)

/h

3 posted on 10/27/2006 7:22:17 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (If a pug barks and no one is around to hear it... they hold a grudge for a long time!)

The thread lives on.

4 posted on 10/27/2006 7:22:32 PM PDT by be4everfree (Liberals are "Thick as a Brick" ......JT)

5 posted on 10/27/2006 7:24:33 PM PDT by RedRover (Proud pinger of sinister political forces.)

If those 20 are the hottest, then we've all been losing sleep over nothing. My detailed analysis will follow in a few minutes...I'm about half way through it.

6 posted on 10/27/2006 7:32:40 PM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (All your Diebolds are belong to us)

At least the last thread gave me a chance to test my newly installed Firefox extension "Text Link", which makes non-html text-only url's clickable. It worked nicely.

Text Link Extension

7 posted on 10/27/2006 7:36:26 PM PDT by Zack Attack

I think NH-2 (Bass) is in play.

That district was won by Dick Swett (D) in 1992, its first year of existence. He lied about voting against the AWB and was defeated in 1994.

But it's a closely-split district, the incumbent is a creep and a big RINO, the RATs are out for blood, and Bush has never been popular here (he got 29% in the 2000 primary, and he ran hard).

Bass is 35-38 on most lists of vulnerable seats, and I don't think we are going down the list that far.

But I think he's in trouble.

8 posted on 10/27/2006 7:38:01 PM PDT by Jim Noble (If we can't leave a democracy behind, we should at least leave the corpses of our enemies.)

To: Degaston; AntiGuv; crasher

Any markings of your odds on the top 40, and a bottom line projection? Absent a wave, mine is about equal to the drinking age. My guess is no wave beyond the current level of damage, but there is about a 1 in 3 chance that their could be, and then we are over minus 30 seats, maybe 35. Things are still very much in flux on this matter. Tomorrow is a new day.

9 posted on 10/27/2006 7:43:24 PM PDT by Torie

help us out by putting a D or a R next to their names please

10 posted on 10/27/2006 7:43:50 PM PDT by 4rcane

I list 28 of those 395 as still being "in play" with 8 of them leaning towards the Democrats and 20 towards the Republicans. And yes Charlie Bass is on my list of 41st thru 68th.

Here are the 8 I have marked Democrat.

GA-08
GA-12
IA-03
IL-08
IL-17
LA-03
SD-AL
VT-AL

Here are the 20 I have marked Republican.

CA-04
CA-11
CA-50
CO-04
CO-05
ID-01
KY-02
MN-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NV-03
NY-03
NY-19
NY-29
OH-01
PA-04
TX-23
VA-10
WA-05
WY-AL

11 posted on 10/27/2006 7:46:12 PM PDT by Degaston

Nice work, and thanks.

If you have a few spare minutes, how is the WA-7th looking? The Repub is getting unusually good press for what is a solid Dem seat. An Independent is siphoning off lefty votes, too.

Every day has a sunrise.

12 posted on 10/27/2006 7:47:02 PM PDT by IslandJeff (FR mail me to be added to the Type I Diabetes ping list)

Hey Jim ... the D(s) are on the left and the R(s) are on the right. With the exception of DINO(s) and RINO(s) that's how they usually are in real life.

13 posted on 10/27/2006 7:48:17 PM PDT by Degaston

To: jazusamo; Just A Nobody

14 posted on 10/27/2006 7:49:22 PM PDT by IslandJeff (FR mail me to be added to the Type I Diabetes ping list)

There are three seats in Indiana that are all very vulnerable for us including my Congressman Mike Sodrel. They should be on your list somewhere.

Many of the "experts" out there have already given all three to the RATS. I am hoping they are wrong.

There are a number of very vulnerable Ohio and Pennsylvania seats as well that need to be included in your analysis.

15 posted on 10/27/2006 7:54:53 PM PDT by comebacknewt

To: comebacknewt

Never mind. I misunderstood your analysis. Sorry.

16 posted on 10/27/2006 7:56:46 PM PDT by comebacknewt

Hey, they pulled the first thread =( . It was destined to become a classic.

17 posted on 10/27/2006 7:58:13 PM PDT by pbear8 (Which senators were recruited by the KGB in the 1970's???)

1) The Republican takes it. He's polling well with base support, better than his opponent is. GOTV can and will bring this home.

2) Shays wins. He's in a red district and has more money. I'm not even buying that he's really in such big trouble, except for his RINO ways pissing off a few...power of the incumbency comes through here. If CT is so anti-Repub and looking to punish us for Iraq, why is Lieberman doing so well? Because it's all MSM crap, that's why. He's definitely a RINO, but that Kennedy rant he went on a few weeks ago was definitely worth a few points with a few RINO hunters out there...

3) Shaw takes this. This is Florida. We own florida GOTV. Period. He could be polling 15 points down and still win by 10 with our florida GOTV skillz. :D

4) Duckworth loses and decisively. Roskam is better on money and is just plain better all around. Roskam isn't some hack DNC plant trying to trick people into voting democrat. That goes a long way.

5) This one is a true toss up, but Chocola has beaten this guy before decisively and that, together with the power of incumbency will probably bring home a win here.

6) I have no information on this one except one BS NYT headline that reads "Toxic Environment for GOP Takes Souder Out of ‘Safe’ Territory". Based on this moronic headline alone, I say the Republican wins the seat. If he was "safe" on October 19th, he'll be "safe" on November 7th unless he's buggering little boys in bathrooms.

7) Sodrel can take this. Momentum is on his side and he's got more money than his opponent.

8) Bachmann is behind on money, but still has the momentum. This isn't as great a shot as others, but this is the first one on the list that might have a squaker here. The optimist in me says she gets it.

9) Taylor is behind on bucks, but again, has momentum on his side. Also, as much as I discount polls, he's been polling consistently ahead of this moron Shuler. This one could be a nailbiter. Frankly, I'm not impressed with the 'worries' so far here though...

10) No way little Kirsten takes Sweeney's seat. He's very comfortable here, (district right next door to mine) and isn't going anywhere. They've got phoney polls from the DNC that say she's competitive, but everyone else has her 10-15 points behind consistently. Sweeney is very popular in Clifton Park and Gillibrand is an outsider. The fact that this seat is on anyone's 'worry' list means to me that the 'powers that be' have no CLUE what to actually worry about.

11) I used to live in Staten Island. We only let Democrats visit there. Republican wins. Don't like it? Too bad! This is the only borough of NYC that went for Bush. It stays solidly red. :)

12) Local news says Renyolds is in comeback mode and earlier polls showing him down have all but disappeared. I don't see an issue here either.

13) Pryce is a fargin' RINO, but my money is on the OH GOTV skillz, which are close to Florida in their effectiveness.

14) True toss up. No clue on this one. I still go with GOTV bringing it home for us.

15) Able who? I'd love for Weldon to take this one, but he's got some powerful enemies. It could happen, but I'm betting someone will make SURE to take him out. Chalk this one up to the dems.

16) Another cooked up phony 'Iraq war vet' running against a Republican. No dice. I'm placing a lot of faith in PA GOTV, but I think that faith is well placed. Fitzpatrick wins.

17) Yet another phony baloney freakin 'veteran' running as a dim. This one might make it, but that GOTV has got to help at least get this one close...

18) 'almost even' 'too close to call' Bullpuckey. Wins on Allen's coattails.

19) I'm not buying the spin on this one. He was 'generally considered a safe bet', but now he isn't? Why? Because GWB is the devil and Rumsfeld didn't resign? Because Mark Foley is gay? Smoke an mirrors. I call BS. After Dino Rossi, WA is going to be going out of it's way to oust Republicans and throw Dems in instead? Hello...anyone home? Especially when Gregoire is campaigning for this chick? Give me a break...we win.

20) Tough call here. The dem, Kagen sounds like he's got a good handle on this one.

18 posted on 10/27/2006 8:00:05 PM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (All your Diebolds are belong to us)

To: comebacknewt

If you click on the links, you'll find all of those included.

Stop worrying so much. I don't know why people let this MSM BS get to them! Relax! :)

19 posted on 10/27/2006 8:05:25 PM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (All your Diebolds are belong to us)

My overall analysis:

367 races are "safe". 194 will go to the Democrats and 173 will go to the Republicans. The winning party is at least 99.5% certain for at least 1/2 of these races and at least 98%+ certain for the rest. That means we could likely see 1-4 of these races change but almost no chance of any more or less.

Another 28 races are rated with the Republicans leading 20 and the Democrats leading 8. I'm about 85-97% certain on who will win. I listed the races and likely party to win earlier in this thread.

Another 20 races are rated with the Republicans leading 11 and the Democrats leading 9 with about 60-84% certainty on who will win.

I give the following 11 to the Republicans:

AZ-01
AZ-05
CT-05
FL-13
IL-10
KY-03
KY-04
NC-08
NV-02
NY-25
OH-02

I give the following to the Democrats:

AZ-08
CO-07
FL-16
IA-01
IN-07
IN-08
NM-01
OH-18
TX-22

Barring any dramatic shift from present polls .... these 415 seats will go 211 for the Democrats and 204 for the Republicans.

The other 20 seats (at the beginning of this thread with the news links) are pretty much tossups. These are the races which will get the most money and attention the next 11 days. They're a good bellweather for what will actually happen in the battle for the Speaker's gavel between Denny Hastert and Nancy Pelosi. Whichever political party can come up with the best combination of national message and local campaigning to focus on these local races will be the one that wins control of the House in the next Congress.

Here are the 20 races I'm watching most closely:

CT-02
CT-04
FL-22
IL-06
IN-02
IN-03
IN-09
MN-06
NC-11
NY-20
NY-24
NY-26
OH-15
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
VA-02
WA-08
WI-08

20 posted on 10/27/2006 8:09:57 PM PDT by Degaston

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794