My overall analysis:
367 races are "safe". 194 will go to the Democrats and 173 will go to the Republicans. The winning party is at least 99.5% certain for at least 1/2 of these races and at least 98%+ certain for the rest. That means we could likely see 1-4 of these races change but almost no chance of any more or less.
Another 28 races are rated with the Republicans leading 20 and the Democrats leading 8. I'm about 85-97% certain on who will win. I listed the races and likely party to win earlier in this thread.
Another 20 races are rated with the Republicans leading 11 and the Democrats leading 9 with about 60-84% certainty on who will win.
I give the following 11 to the Republicans:
AZ-01
AZ-05
CT-05
FL-13
IL-10
KY-03
KY-04
NC-08
NV-02
NY-25
OH-02
I give the following to the Democrats:
AZ-08
CO-07
FL-16
IA-01
IN-07
IN-08
NM-01
OH-18
TX-22
Barring any dramatic shift from present polls .... these 415 seats will go 211 for the Democrats and 204 for the Republicans.
The other 20 seats (at the beginning of this thread with the news links) are pretty much tossups. These are the races which will get the most money and attention the next 11 days. They're a good bellweather for what will actually happen in the battle for the Speaker's gavel between Denny Hastert and Nancy Pelosi. Whichever political party can come up with the best combination of national message and local campaigning to focus on these local races will be the one that wins control of the House in the next Congress.
Here are the 20 races I'm watching most closely:
CT-02
CT-04
FL-22
IL-06
IN-02
IN-03
IN-09
MN-06
NC-11
NY-20
NY-24
NY-26
OH-15
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
VA-02
WA-08
WI-08
Rovian Storm pretty much marks 16-17 of my 20 hottest "tossup" ones as going to the GOP based on his notes. I'm guessing he'd give 15 of 20 instead of 11 of 20 and 22 of 28 instead of 20 of 28 to the Republicans. If his analysis is right then the Republicans will win approx. 226-227 seats compared to 208-209 for the Democrats.
My guess is that we'll see about 8-14 of the hottest 20 going to the GOP and it'll all depend on turnout. That means we'll see the Republicans win somewhere around 216-221 seats. The margin will be pretty tight IMHO.
I say we lose 5, 7, 9, 15, 17 and 20 and hold the House by one seat -- barring any defections.
AZ-08 - I don't see Graf pulling this out either unfortunately.
CO-07 - I gotta call BS on the polls on this one. Looking at the internals, they are suspicious.
FL-16 - I don't think this seat is really in danger. It's Florida, and we just won the fight to have signs up. Not that we needed them. Dem voters need signs...
IA-01 - Just read polling on this one too. Not buying it again. Call me a delusional fool if you must...
IN-07 - poll numbers are all messed up here too. Just so happens they look better for us, but still...
IN-08 - Don't know here...I could get a better pic if someone from Indiana who's on the ground and working doors/houses/phones would let us know what the ground game is like or was like in 04 for us. That would answer a lot on these.
NM-01 -- Wilson's got like a 2-1 money advantage. I don't see this seat being lost.
OH-18 -- I see a big upset going on in Ohio. I see lots of large races polling in a crazy manner compared to what I hear from people on the ground. If the numbers match up, Space is not very far ahead, if at all. GOTV can bring this home.
TX-22 -- Thanks, Tom. Glad we knew ye...