Posted on 10/31/2006 6:49:39 AM PST by freespirited
With a week to go before voters cast their midterm election ballots, four key Senate races remain statistical dead heats...
Among likely voters in Missouri, Republican Sen. Jim Talent and his Democratic challenger, State Auditor Claire McCaskill, were at a dead heat, each with 49 percent support. However, among the larger pool of registered voters, McCaskill led 51-43 percent. ...
In Tennessee, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. -- hoping to make history as the first black candidate ever elected by Southern voters to a Senate seat -- trailed his Republican opponent, Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, by a margin of 52-44 percent among likely voters.
However, among registered voters, Corker's lead was just 47-45 percent, and the results for both likely and registered voters were within the sampling error.
In Virginia, Republican Sen. George Allen -- who has watched his once considerable lead vanish after a series of gaffes and controversies -- trailed his Democratic challenger, former Navy Secretary Jim Webb, by 50-46 percent among likely voters, which was also within the sampling error.
The GOP incumbent who appears to be in the most trouble in the states polled by CNN was Sen. Mike DeWine of Ohio, who trailed his Democratic rival, Rep. Sherrod Brown, by a margin of 54-43 percent among likely voters.
Democrats need to make a net pickup of six seats next Tuesday in order to win control of the Senate. To get there, they are trying to win the open GOP seat in Tennessee and targeting six vulnerable Republican incumbents, including DeWine, Talent, Allen and Sens. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Conrad Burns of Montana.
Republicans are hoping to make that task more difficult by challenging Menendez and trying to pick up two open Democratic seats in Maryland and Minnesota.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
If the MSM pollsters show that the race is "tight" then you've got to think the GOP has a solid edge. Remember how Zogby called Florida for Kerry?
As I said in another thread, I believe if a CONSERVATIVE is "tied" going into election day, he or she ought to win--since their support is so often underestimated.
Keep your fingers crossed for us and pray!!!!
Rush is right. By tightening the races at the last moment, the MSM thinks it gets its credibility back.
Jus like 2 years ago this campaign is an emotional roller coaster. Numbers are changing constantly. One minute I think we might win then the next we get another batch of bad numbers. I try to remain optimistic but not all these polls can be wrong. We've just go to hope the GOP turns out more than the bad guys do of their voters.
I think VA will go with Allen, despite the best efforts of the MSM. The Va Pravda/Red Star endorsed Webb, which ought to be enough to guarantee Allen's re-election.
That is misunderestiamted to you and me! :)
I love that word and still use it to this day!
I am worried about Jim Talent. The woman running against him is another pro abortion lib non entity.
It's a CNN poll.
The company that did it is owned by Vinod Gupta- a big, big Dem supporter. To the tune of hundreds of thousands.
One hand washes the other.
It seems VA pubbies don't know how to deal with Dems who portray themselves as middle of the road. They don't know how to get through the Democrat's moderate image and don't know how to promote their own positions. Seems like a no-brainer for Allen (and other Republicans) to stress the strong economy and crediting Bush's tax cuts - and their support of them. For some reason their highly paid consultants don't think of that. Allen's been attacking Webb's book that he wrote over 20 years ago. Yeesh.
I think John Kerry just handed Allen all of Hampton Roads.
she is far worse then that. her husband is a low cost housing king, with business tax shelters structured in Bermuda. their net worth is estimated at 30 million.
Those people were already going to vote for Allen.
Where Allen will lose, if he does, is Northern Virginia. I suspect the obsession with Webb's novels will end up killing him there.
I agree, the People's Republic of Northern Virginia will unfortunately be the key here.
I understand that VA has an independent running in the Senate race. She represents Northern VA desire for more roads and etc. She at best garners 1 to 3 percent in the polls. Now she is considering pulling out and endorsing one of the candidates. Is that going to impact Sen Allen??
I am with you. I read the arguments here as to why the polls are baloney. But here is my problem with them. The same factors that allegedly made the polls garbage existed when someone like Allen was ahead August-October. For the polls to suddenly be showing Webb ahead under the same conditions, however flawed, says to me that the polls are picking up a trend. Which means, as you say, that turn-out will be critical.
Of course it is also possible that the trend represents a response to one or more factors that will abate before Election Day. The fickleness of the electorate never ceases to amaze me.
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