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Polls: 4 key Senate races tight
CNN ^ | 10/31/06

Posted on 10/31/2006 6:49:39 AM PST by freespirited

With a week to go before voters cast their midterm election ballots, four key Senate races remain statistical dead heats...

Among likely voters in Missouri, Republican Sen. Jim Talent and his Democratic challenger, State Auditor Claire McCaskill, were at a dead heat, each with 49 percent support. However, among the larger pool of registered voters, McCaskill led 51-43 percent. ...

In Tennessee, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. -- hoping to make history as the first black candidate ever elected by Southern voters to a Senate seat -- trailed his Republican opponent, Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, by a margin of 52-44 percent among likely voters.

However, among registered voters, Corker's lead was just 47-45 percent, and the results for both likely and registered voters were within the sampling error.

In Virginia, Republican Sen. George Allen -- who has watched his once considerable lead vanish after a series of gaffes and controversies -- trailed his Democratic challenger, former Navy Secretary Jim Webb, by 50-46 percent among likely voters, which was also within the sampling error.

The GOP incumbent who appears to be in the most trouble in the states polled by CNN was Sen. Mike DeWine of Ohio, who trailed his Democratic rival, Rep. Sherrod Brown, by a margin of 54-43 percent among likely voters.

Democrats need to make a net pickup of six seats next Tuesday in order to win control of the Senate. To get there, they are trying to win the open GOP seat in Tennessee and targeting six vulnerable Republican incumbents, including DeWine, Talent, Allen and Sens. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Conrad Burns of Montana.

Republicans are hoping to make that task more difficult by challenging Menendez and trying to pick up two open Democratic seats in Maryland and Minnesota.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election2006; senateraces
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Well, the news from Tennessee is good.
1 posted on 10/31/2006 6:49:41 AM PST by freespirited
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To: All

If the MSM pollsters show that the race is "tight" then you've got to think the GOP has a solid edge. Remember how Zogby called Florida for Kerry?


2 posted on 10/31/2006 6:51:28 AM PST by CaliGangsta
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To: freespirited

As I said in another thread, I believe if a CONSERVATIVE is "tied" going into election day, he or she ought to win--since their support is so often underestimated.


3 posted on 10/31/2006 6:51:42 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: freespirited
I'll not be surprised if the pollsters have virtually every race in the country "too close to call" by election day.
4 posted on 10/31/2006 6:53:36 AM PST by Steely Tom
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To: freespirited

Keep your fingers crossed for us and pray!!!!


5 posted on 10/31/2006 6:56:40 AM PST by Jen from Tn.
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To: Steely Tom

Rush is right. By tightening the races at the last moment, the MSM thinks it gets its credibility back.


6 posted on 10/31/2006 7:00:09 AM PST by Thrownatbirth (.....when the sidewalks are safe for the little guy.)
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To: Steely Tom

Jus like 2 years ago this campaign is an emotional roller coaster. Numbers are changing constantly. One minute I think we might win then the next we get another batch of bad numbers. I try to remain optimistic but not all these polls can be wrong. We've just go to hope the GOP turns out more than the bad guys do of their voters.


7 posted on 10/31/2006 7:02:00 AM PST by TNCMAXQ
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To: freespirited

DEFEND LIBERTY! HOLD THE CONSERVATIVE LINE!

8 posted on 10/31/2006 7:03:03 AM PST by NaughtiusMaximus (Let's all be Magnificent Bastards. Turn out those Republican votes!)
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To: freespirited
Sure, it's close. Keep thinking that.


9 posted on 10/31/2006 7:05:29 AM PST by new yorker 77 (FAKE POLLS DO NOT TRANSLATE INTO REAL VOTERS!)
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To: freespirited

I think VA will go with Allen, despite the best efforts of the MSM. The Va Pravda/Red Star endorsed Webb, which ought to be enough to guarantee Allen's re-election.


10 posted on 10/31/2006 7:09:42 AM PST by tgusa (Gun control: deep breath, sight alignment, squeeze the trigger .....)
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To: SoFloFreeper

That is misunderestiamted to you and me! :)

I love that word and still use it to this day!


11 posted on 10/31/2006 7:10:38 AM PST by jrestrepo
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To: jrestrepo

I am worried about Jim Talent. The woman running against him is another pro abortion lib non entity.


12 posted on 10/31/2006 7:13:53 AM PST by juliej
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To: freespirited

It's a CNN poll.
The company that did it is owned by Vinod Gupta- a big, big Dem supporter. To the tune of hundreds of thousands.

One hand washes the other.


13 posted on 10/31/2006 7:15:36 AM PST by mrsmith
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To: freespirited
I hate to say it but so far Allen-Webb is giving me a bad case of deja vu when thinking of the Kilgore-Kaine race. Kilgore had a big lead and kept attacking Kaine as too liberal, while Kaine portrayed himself as a moderate with "ideas". (He also lied and said he would not propose a tax increase). Kaine pulled away in the last week. Kilgore's vaunted GOTV effort turned out to be a paper tiger. If the pattern holds this won't even be that close at the end.

It seems VA pubbies don't know how to deal with Dems who portray themselves as middle of the road. They don't know how to get through the Democrat's moderate image and don't know how to promote their own positions. Seems like a no-brainer for Allen (and other Republicans) to stress the strong economy and crediting Bush's tax cuts - and their support of them. For some reason their highly paid consultants don't think of that. Allen's been attacking Webb's book that he wrote over 20 years ago. Yeesh.

14 posted on 10/31/2006 7:15:46 AM PST by lasereye
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To: tgusa

I think John Kerry just handed Allen all of Hampton Roads.


15 posted on 10/31/2006 7:17:05 AM PST by Thrownatbirth (.....when the sidewalks are safe for the little guy.)
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To: juliej

she is far worse then that. her husband is a low cost housing king, with business tax shelters structured in Bermuda. their net worth is estimated at 30 million.


16 posted on 10/31/2006 7:17:59 AM PST by oceanview
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To: Thrownatbirth

Those people were already going to vote for Allen.

Where Allen will lose, if he does, is Northern Virginia. I suspect the obsession with Webb's novels will end up killing him there.


17 posted on 10/31/2006 7:18:54 AM PST by Strategerist (Those who know what's best for us must rise and save us from ourselves)
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To: Strategerist

I agree, the People's Republic of Northern Virginia will unfortunately be the key here.


18 posted on 10/31/2006 7:25:49 AM PST by tgusa (Gun control: deep breath, sight alignment, squeeze the trigger .....)
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To: Strategerist

I understand that VA has an independent running in the Senate race. She represents Northern VA desire for more roads and etc. She at best garners 1 to 3 percent in the polls. Now she is considering pulling out and endorsing one of the candidates. Is that going to impact Sen Allen??


19 posted on 10/31/2006 7:26:06 AM PST by Fee
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To: TNCMAXQ
I try to remain optimistic but not all these polls can be wrong. We've just go to hope the GOP turns out more than the bad guys do of their voters.

I am with you. I read the arguments here as to why the polls are baloney. But here is my problem with them. The same factors that allegedly made the polls garbage existed when someone like Allen was ahead August-October. For the polls to suddenly be showing Webb ahead under the same conditions, however flawed, says to me that the polls are picking up a trend. Which means, as you say, that turn-out will be critical.

Of course it is also possible that the trend represents a response to one or more factors that will abate before Election Day. The fickleness of the electorate never ceases to amaze me.

20 posted on 10/31/2006 7:26:33 AM PST by freespirited (Annoy The Washington Post ! Vote Republican on November 7th.)
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To: tgusa

Northern Virginia isn't particularly left-wing, compared to the Maryland suburbs of Washington DC.

However you'll not find nearly as many social cons and religious conservatives there as you would in the rest of the state.


21 posted on 10/31/2006 7:29:26 AM PST by Strategerist (Those who know what's best for us must rise and save us from ourselves)
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To: Fee

Lcal voters in both Northern VA and Hampton Roads (the southeastern corner, Norfolk area) soundly defeated a proposed local sales tax increase to fund more roads. Allen needs to keep hammering on his conservative roots.


22 posted on 10/31/2006 7:31:01 AM PST by tgusa (Gun control: deep breath, sight alignment, squeeze the trigger .....)
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To: Strategerist

I know, I worked there for several years before my sentence was commuted - now live and work in Hampton Roads.


23 posted on 10/31/2006 7:32:33 AM PST by tgusa (Gun control: deep breath, sight alignment, squeeze the trigger .....)
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To: Strategerist; Thrownatbirth

Webb was leading by 5 in Hampton Roads as of a week ago. Overall Allen led by 4 in that poll.

http://www.dailypress.com/news/senatepoll.o24,0,1280490.story?coll=dp-widget-news


24 posted on 10/31/2006 7:34:46 AM PST by freespirited (Annoy The Washington Post ! Vote Republican on November 7th.)
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To: freespirited

If you look at the polls, there is an oversampling of Dems almost across the board. Also more and more Republicans refuse to answer their phone when they see it is a pollster.

Internal polling is showing far different numbers for many of the races then the corrupt MSM polls are showing. You can make the questions you ask, get your the answers you want from a lot of people. Kind of like 'do you still beat your wife?' kind of questions. Also you have to realize that polls on weekends tend to favor Dems and have for years. Note a lot of these polls came from weekend polling to the glee of the MSM.

Only poll that counts in on election day! That means every last Republican needs to get out and vote and show the pollsters they don't have a clue!


25 posted on 10/31/2006 7:35:02 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( Go Sooners! George Allen for President in 2008!)
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To: freespirited
If they have OH at 11, then it means DeWine is picking up ground and is likely at 4-5.

Mark it down: I have Talent, Allen, and Corker in the "safe" column. They all will win by a couple of percent.

I have Burns in the "nearly safe" column. I know, he still "trails," which by bogus polling methodology means he has a narrow lead. Turnout will make him safe. Ditto Steele.

I have Chafee and Kean in the "tossup" column. I think they'll both win, but we'll have to sweat a little.

I have DeWine in the "difficult, but do-able" column.

The only one I am having grave concerns about is Santorum, who just seems unable to move.

BTW, keep your eye on both Bouchard (MI) and Kennedy (MN). If the races start to break our way, and if DeVos continues to gather steam, Bouchard will be the night's surprise winner. Kennedy improving, but still in the "difficult" range.

26 posted on 10/31/2006 7:36:10 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
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To: juliej

See my post, above. I have Talent in the "Safe" column on my big board.


27 posted on 10/31/2006 7:36:57 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
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To: LS

I hope you are right. And I hope we win in VA, TN and CO. I am still praying for Rick in Pennsylvania. I hope Kean can beat Menendez just to wipe the smirk off Jon Corzine's face.


28 posted on 10/31/2006 7:37:59 AM PST by juliej
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To: juliej

I don't think we have a senate race in CO.


29 posted on 10/31/2006 7:39:56 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
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To: freespirited

What bothers me about VA is the number of New York libs who have moved there in order to ruin it.


30 posted on 10/31/2006 7:40:15 AM PST by juliej
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To: freespirited

John Fund on Fox & Friends this morning said we may not know which party will control the Senate until a week or more after election day, if some races are too close to call--there are so many absentee ballots nowadays, and in most places they don't count them until after the election, so we won't know the winner on election night.


31 posted on 10/31/2006 7:43:18 AM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: freespirited; TNCMAXQ

I think this will be the last of the "bad" polls this year.
Only this company could be so wrong this close to the election and not lose money (and even Gupta and CNN only dared to slant the results within the margin of error).

Earlier pollsters could blame discrepencies on a lot of reasons but the electorate has formed up and a good pollster should be able to get good results in the last week.
Any mistakes the pollsters make from now on will hurt their credibility and future income.


32 posted on 10/31/2006 7:46:06 AM PST by mrsmith
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To: PhiKapMom
more and more Republicans refuse to answer their phone when they see it is a pollster.

I read this all the time on FR but I haven't seen anything that substantiates it.

33 posted on 10/31/2006 7:46:24 AM PST by lasereye
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To: oceanview
You forgot her main qualification to get the Dhimmicrat nomination was her statewide name recognition.
34 posted on 10/31/2006 7:52:06 AM PST by Flathead Catfisherman
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To: mrsmith

Gupta's main company is InfoUSA. I refuse to use his shoddy databases to do marketing.


35 posted on 10/31/2006 7:53:19 AM PST by jps098
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To: freespirited; 1stMarylandRegiment; 47carollann; A Citizen Reporter; A Cyrenian; adrian; AFLoggie; ..
Missouri ping

Low volume (normally) ping list

FReepmail me to be on, or off, this list.

Among likely voters in Missouri, Republican Sen. Jim Talent and his Democratic challenger, State Auditor Claire McCaskill, were at a dead heat, each with 49 percent support. However, among the larger pool of registered voters, McCaskill led 51-43 percent. ...

36 posted on 10/31/2006 7:54:57 AM PST by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: PhiKapMom
If you look at the polls, there is an oversampling of Dems almost across the board.

A lot of folks keep saying that, but Raz says he uses equal numbers of Dems and Republicans in Va. And for some of the other polls I cannot find the data on sample composition. I can't assume from no data that Dems were oversampled.

Also more and more Republicans refuse to answer their phone when they see it is a pollster.

Let's say that is true. How do we explain that with that the case, Allen was ahead by three or four points from August to a week ago and is now behind by three or four? Not answering the phone doesn't work as an explanation unless Republicans just started doing it a week ago.

37 posted on 10/31/2006 7:55:05 AM PST by freespirited (Annoy The Washington Post ! Vote Republican on November 7th.)
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To: LS
Mark it down: I have Talent, Allen, and Corker in the "safe" column. They all will win by a couple of percent.

I am increasingly confident on Corker, I'd share your confidence on Talent were it not for the history of Dem vote fraud in Missouri and getting judges to hold the polls open in Dem areas so they can get more votes!

I am concerned about the Allen situation. We'll see.

38 posted on 10/31/2006 7:57:30 AM PST by freespirited (Annoy The Washington Post ! Vote Republican on November 7th.)
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To: freespirited

cnn polls are a joke. the wjs stopped working with cnn due to issues with published results by cnn. AKA ,ccn tooks the poll data and reworked it and it was flat out fraud .apparently the wsj did not want its name linked this propaganda


39 posted on 10/31/2006 8:05:06 AM PST by BurtSB (the price of freedom is eternal vigilance)
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To: Verginius Rufus
"don't count them until after the election, so we won't know the winner on election night."

WOW! I didn't know they counted them AFTER the election. I always thought they counted them as the ballots came in. Can the out come be manipulated to go the RATS way if they are losing on election night? I guess I'm growing more and more skeptical of those in charge of the ballots after the FL and WA fiasco.

40 posted on 10/31/2006 8:06:36 AM PST by RoseofTexas
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To: freespirited

Quite a significant advantage for the GOP between registered and likely voters. It makes one wonder whether the Democrat base is really as energized as the media would like us to believe.


41 posted on 10/31/2006 8:06:41 AM PST by NittanyLion
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To: freespirited
LET'S stop all the speculations and polls etc. Let's go by what folk from each state thinks and feels how the atmosphere there is for the candidates. HERE in Texas...Gov. Perry will be reelected! Those living in those crucial state should be able to give us a better eyes-view of what people are thinking. WHAT SAY YOU?
42 posted on 10/31/2006 8:11:47 AM PST by RoseofTexas
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To: Just another Joe; All

May I suggest you join me in emailing this to everyone you can and ask them to do the same :

http://freedomkeys.com/2003taxcuts.htm

You can copy it, but the BEST thing to do is click on "File" in the upper-left-hand corner of your screen, and then "Send Page" or "Send>" and then "Page"

If you don't have a huge address book, I HIGHLY recommend you find the email addresses of the Chambers of Commerce (and, if possible, even their members) in the towns around you.

For Missouri use this one: http://freedomkeys.com/2003taxcuts10.htm

For Virginia: http://freedomkeys.com/2003taxcuts1.htm

For Ohio: http://freedomkeys.com/2003taxcuts5.htm

For Washington State: http://freedomkeys.com/2003taxcuts8.htm

For Montana: http://freedomkeys.com/2003taxcuts9.htm

For Michigan: http://freedomkeys.com/2003taxcuts14.htm



43 posted on 10/31/2006 8:52:51 AM PST by FreeKeys ("America's national security is the lowest priority on the Democratic Party agenda."- David Horowitz)
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To: RoseofTexas
In Missouri, Talent vs McCaskill, I am seeing a true 6-5 you pick it race.
The rural will go to Talent overall, the urban will go to McCaskill overall, the suburban is where the difference will be made.
I see a greater percentage of Talent signs but the McCaskill signs are in higher visibility areas.

They are both running attack ads, which turns me off to begin with. I prefer to know what a candidate is FOR, not what they think their opponent has scrooged up.

I think Talent will take it with 52% or maybe 53%, but it's gonna be tight.

44 posted on 10/31/2006 9:00:58 AM PST by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: Steely Tom

The Alaska Governor race is tied. Momentum is with the Dem.


45 posted on 10/31/2006 9:02:19 AM PST by RightWhale (Repeal the law of the excluded middle)
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To: juliej
The woman running against him is another pro abortion lib non entity.

She is well known in the urban and suburban areas.
She was Jackson County prosecutor and State Auditor.
She's well known in the political circles of the state and she knows how to fight dirty.

46 posted on 10/31/2006 9:03:22 AM PST by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: Just another Joe

YEs, she fights dirty: promising that the dead will rise if she is elected is pretty dirty (re: Michael J. Fox stupid ad).


47 posted on 10/31/2006 9:04:40 AM PST by juliej
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To: freespirited
Talent has over $4 million on hand per the FEC as of October 20. McCaskill has a measley $250, 000. That's 16 times the money she has. It's time for the Talent campaign to spend it.

Pray for freezing rain in Pittsburgh, Philly, St. Louis, and K.C. on Nov. 7.
48 posted on 10/31/2006 9:06:42 AM PST by no dems (Duncan Hunter for Prez / Tony Snow for VEEP in '08)
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To: no dems
Pray for freezing rain in Pittsburgh, Philly, St. Louis, and K.C. on Nov. 7.

Hey, HEY, I live in KC.

Oh well, I still have vacation days left.

;^)

49 posted on 10/31/2006 1:53:41 PM PST by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: Strategerist
I suspect the obsession with Webb's novels will end up killing him there.

Funny how the mere mention of lewd passages can grow into "an obssession." All he did was point out that Webb is sick, and it's an obsession. LOL!

50 posted on 10/31/2006 1:59:30 PM PST by webheart
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