CHOOSING CHAOS?

NY POST ^ | 4 November 2006 | JOHN PODHORETZ

[shrinkermd]

November 3, 2006 -- SO, we are told, all is lost in Iraq. My colleague Ralph Peters has thrown in the towel, declared the war a failure, and has laid the blame at the feet of the Iraqis for refusing to save themselves from anarchy and tribalism.

My friend David Brooks says this was all written into Iraq's DNA - that the amalgamation of Sunnis, Shia and Kurds into a nation by the British in 1920 has ensured there can and will never be anything remotely resembling a civil society there.

If Peters and Brooks are right, then the common attack on the Bush administration for doing such an incompetent job of post-Saddam management - a criticism in which both men indulge heartily - is beside the point in historical terms...

[shrinkermd]

Best take in a long time on Iraq. I agree the War is not lost and the Iraqis have made heroic efforts that are gradually changing things.

[Alia]

I ditto your post.

[avital2]

3 years in - we're 3 years in. when we were gaining our own independence, we hadn't even moved from Articles of Confederation to the Constitution in that time.
i pray we are not so instant gratification these days that we leave the battlefield, and set ourselves back in the War on Terror. if you look at how the insurgents are emboldened and fed by the infidel's actions, look at what the Israelis' pull back from Lebanon, from Gaza, has led to - heightened insurgency. it's a cruel fact but it is going to take a long time to wear them down. but i believe our very survival is at stake.

[SolidWood]

Four things are wrong with a large part of the US and the West in general:

1) No patience.

2) No will to accept sacrafices.

3) No loyalty and unity during wartime.

4) No historical perspective.

These are the fundaments for any successful war.
People cannot expect to change the Middle East, eradicate WMD, regimes and Terrorists within a couple of years.
It takes time. Decades. The Cold War lasted 5 decades. The war against Germany's struggle to become a superpower lasted
3 decades (1914-45). The war between Islam and the rest of the world started some 1300 years ago...
People need to be patient, resolute and loyal.And the treasonous media needs to be taught a hard lesson.

[buck61]

Agreed.

People have forgotten TPOTUS said that this was going to be a "long" difficult war.
We have become the now generation. We want everything now, no waiting, no loge fights for others freedoms, we are spoiled.

If we withdraw from Iraq too soon we will regret it for several decades and, we will be doing the fighting here on our own soil.

The party of appeasement can-not win this war with words. It is a war you can only win with killing the enemy.
This enemy has a stronger will than the American people are willing to give and, they know this very well.

[wildwood]

good assessment coming from podhoretz. one interesting point from this article:

But since he apparently didn't have any of major consequence, the whole effort has gone for naught.

the new york times has pointed out that hussein DID have nuclear plans on the table, if not finished yet! how soon we forget!

[A. Pole]

3 years in - we're 3 years in. when we were gaining our own independence, we hadn't even moved from Articles of Confederation to the Constitution in that time.

Do you really think that if XVIII c Americans consisted of Arabic clans with Shia and Sunni beliefs and medieval customs, the Red Coats could impose on them the XX century Western style democracy? Curious minds want to know.

[darth]

I have been saying since 9/11 that this is a WORLDWIDE GUERILLA WAR. It took the Brits 25 years to put down guerilla wars in Kenya and Malaysia, but THEY WON. The real battle for us Freepers is to combat the treasonous slime right here in America.

[humint]

Four things are wrong with a large part of the US and the West in general:

1. No patience.
2. No will to accept sacrafices.
3. No loyalty and unity during wartime.
4. No historical perspective.

These are the fundaments for any successful war. People cannot expect to change the Middle East, eradicate WMD, regimes and Terrorists within a couple of years. It takes time. Decades. The Cold War lasted 5 decades. The war against Germany's struggle to become a superpower lasted 3 decades (1914-45). The war between Islam and the rest of the world started some 1300 years ago... People need to be patient, resolute and loyal.And the treasonous media needs to be taught a hard lesson.

HUMINT: I enjoyed this article and I think solidwood's additional context adds real value to the discussion. I'd like to point out several additional things that I think we, the United States needs to have in order to competently facilitate democracy in Iraq - before we run out of blood and treasure.

1. We need to have the ability to identify our enemies in Iraq (our interests are a democratic Iraq and any enemy to that vision should be treated as such). Sadr, among others are not behaving democratically despite their being elected "democratically".
2. We need to have the ability to identify and protect our allies in Iraq (sadly, many of Iraq's finest men and women are being targeted for standing up for the democratic movement spearheaded by the United States)
3. We have to be able to sell the idea to ourselves first and the world second, that we are managing (not leading) a global democratic movement. (The United States is not an empire subjugating Iraqis for their nation's natural resources - however those same resources are still of interest to the US economy)
4. Average Americans have to be able to identify with the Iraqi people in order to sustain this movement and right now, they have barely even met each other. Besides burqas, beards and bombs what do average American now about the people they are spending their blood and treasure to liberate? Not much.
5. The alternative to the point above is also true. Iraqis must be able to identify with Americans, including the face of the movement for a peaceful democratic world, the American Soldier.

We have a long road ahead of us, there is no doubt about that. We have control over some of the conditions on this road but not all of the conditions. Right now, I tend to think we are making the effort harder on ourselves than we have to be. Some believe that is a reason to quit. I believe the American role in the movement for peace and democracy around the world is not negotiable. Quiting that effort would mark the end of our great nation.

[A. Pole]

It took the Brits 25 years to put down guerilla wars in Kenya and Malaysia, but THEY WON.

And much good it did to them, few years later they were broke and their empire fell apart.

[SolidWood]

The British Empire didn't break because of Guerrilleros in Kenya or Malaysia.
After World War 2, Britains time as an Empire was up.
Indias Independence and the loss of their Mandates in the Middle East due to the new political and economic realities, wich came with the war, it was only a matter of time for the Empire to crumble. The USA took Britains former role as a superpower.

[ALASKA]

Agreed, agreed, agreed.
I think it will take another, worse 9/11 for the CIVILIZED world to "get it".

[A. Pole]

After World War 2, Britains time as an Empire was up.

Could you explain when the "time as an Empire [is] up"? How can we recognize when America's "time as an Empire [will be] up"?

[SolidWood]

First of all there were significant differences between the British Empire then and the USA now.
Britain colonized. Countries like India, the parts of Africa etc. belonged the British Crown. They weren't even nominally independent. Countries under the sphere of US Influence today, are not part of the USA, but sovereign states linked to the USA trough treaties, shared economic and strategic interests.
We didn't declare Afghanistan or Iraq to be part of the USA, as the Brits did with India, Hong Kong, etc.
So any comparison between these two "empires" is only relative.
An Empires time is up, when either it crumbles from inside due to repression and economic demise or when (a) rivaling Power(s) defeats it, conquers it's territories or supersedes
it.
Britain's time was up because two world wars ate up their money and resources. The USA stepped in and assumed the role as leading economic and military power. Britain's century-old model of rule over foreign territories was no longer viable.
Americas time will be up if we go into Isolation, due to lacking will to exert power into the world, let our traditional values demise, don't resist rivaling powers like China, and let International Institutions like the UN shape our foreign policy.

[ClaireSolt]

It is the height of cruelty for the Dems to inflict their partisanship on the Iraqi people, as if they didn't have enough problems. None of their so called alternative solutions show any hint of historical perspective, at all. For instance, now some are pushing for partition into three countries. Now that's an idea the English applied that seemed like a solution that has brought mostly heartbreak. There is footage of the wrenching partition of India which still has lots of ethnic conflict and the partition of Palestine is still played out every day on the evening news. Who, in his right mind, would seriously propose such a thing again? Only a blind partisan trying to get his 15 min of fame.

I know the history of France rather well and it is interesting to compare it to some of the things we see in Iraq. Like those who see Iraq in three parts, so also did Julius Caesar say "Omnia Gallia in tres partes divisa est." Nobody mentions those three groups anymore. Much later Hugh Capet founded the French monarchy on the Ile de Cite. He was a lot like Hamid Karsai, derisively called the mayor of Kabul by some. Hundreds of years later a successor, Louis XVI claimed to be the sun king. When we study the history of France no one ever demands to know why Hugh Capet didn't get that job done in three years. What about the insurgency? Shouldn't that be done by now? Who says? The French Revolution lasted 150 years, breaking out again and again ever 15 years or so until they finally paved the streets of Paris with asphalt to prevent barricade building with paving stones.

last night Geraldo finally said we should be prepared to stay in Iraq for 50 years like Korea, if the Iraqis want us to. I agree. Our contribution to creating stable prosperous democracies is Germany, Japan, and South Korea are achievements to be proud of and they have become allies and trading partners that benefit us. Why would we redeploy our troops from an arena where they are needed and send them somewhere where their is nothing for them to do? that sounds like the thinking of a bureaucrat or labor union leader to me.

[Uncle Vlad]

Just remember, even as late as 1793, Washington wondered if America could win the Revolutionary War.

[Uncle Vlad]

Correction--1783. I fat-fingered my keyboard there.

[A. Pole]

Britain's time was up because two world wars ate up their money and resources.
[...]
Americas time will be up if we go into Isolation, due to lacking will to exert power into the world

Wait a minute. So for Britain the "money and resources" were deciding factor, but America does not have such limitations? The mere will is enough?

[darth]

Yes, but Kenya did not fall to the Mau Maus nor is Malaysia a communist country. It is possible to defeat guerillas, but patience is required.

[A. Pole]

Much later Hugh Capet founded the French monarchy on the Ile de Cite. He was a lot like Hamid Karsai, derisively called the mayor of Kabul by some.

I did not know that Karzai is such a talented leader and that his descendants will be great rulers. Wow! Looks like Americans made a good choice.